July 28, 2022

That Tiny Rise in CO2

Kim Rogalin

What we see on the attached is at least in part a natural warming trend with no dramatic temperature increase. It’s tiny compared to what we deal with on a day-to-day, location-to-loc ation, season-to-seaso n basis. The warming isn’t significant and it doesn’t correlate very strongly with CO2.

We can also see that the temperature today is very cold on average in terms of the history of the earth. We’re not at all in unprecedented territory temperature-wis e or CO2-wise. The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial revolution has risen from .03% of the atmosphere to .04%. Historically it was 20 times that and these were very fertile periods of the earth.

Herd hysteria is taking tragic social and economic tolls on formerly prosperous countries that have enacted climate alarm-premised anti-fossil energy and agriculture policies. Such self-inflicted misery can be attributed to a combination of influences: unwarranted fear based upon provably failed theoretical climate models; grossly misguided expectations of so-called "green energy” capacities and economies; and certainly not the least of these, powerful political activist agendas that exploit frightened, uninformed populations they work to ensure.

Radical left-wing "climate change” agendas geographically ranging from fertile farmlands of the Netherlands in the West — to Sri Lanka in southern Asia and Ghana in Sub-Sahara Africa — are likewise having devastating impacts upon local livelihoods and the world’s food supply.

Bjorn Lomborg's book False Alarm exposes a host of false claims by environmentalis
ts, including the notion that warming has been producing more storms, drought, and floods. In fact, all of these have remained at the same level over the past 100 years. As Lomborg writes, "deaths caused by climate-related disasters have declined precipitously over the past century" (p. 73) — not because of fewer storms, but because increasing wealth has made it possible to protect ourselves from climate events. The real danger lies in useless spending on climate change that will bankrupt societies and make it impossible for their people to protect themselves.

The claims of CO2 leading to runaway warming and catastrophic climate change are based on speculative climate models that include additional drivers of warming besides the greenhouse effect. These models often contradict each other, both in their assumptions about key elements of climate like cloud formation and the role of aerosols, and in their predictions. Even more important is that the models that include these speculative drivers of warming have a terrible track record when it comes to predicting actual climate trends, dramatically over-predicted the amount of warming that would occur as more CO2 entered the atmosphere. Predictions based on the idea that CO2 has a much bigger effect in the atmosphere than it does in the laboratory have been systematically wrong.
The global economy has now constructed an entire edifice atop the myth of catastrophic man-made global warming, and activists like Gore collectively have made billions if not trillions of dollars off their predictions of doom. Environmental activism became a lucrative business, in the form of non-profit revenues and income from corporate consulting.

Now under Biden, activists promise to transform the global economy at a cost of hundreds of trillions. An SEC proposed rule on "climate change reporting and control" would, if enacted, lower profits and productivity for large businesses and bankrupt smaller ones. And the SEC is just one among hundreds of federal agencies targeting fossil fuel emissions and exposing the private sector to huge reporting and legal costs. According to the National Law Review: "companies will likely need to consider and quantify the impact of environmental factors on both the upstream and downstream aspects of their business."

Ironically, the global warming edifice is beginning to crack as European nations reverse their behavior, if not their rhetoric, on warming. Germany never fully complied with the Paris Agreement to begin with, but on May 24, it announced that it may use idled coal-fired power plants to compensate for lost Russian natural gas supplies. Maybe California's Gov. Newsom needs to take a tip from Germany, since California has warned of "possible summer blackouts" for at least the next 3 years.

The reality is that wind and solar supply only 1.1% of global energy needs at present and will not supply more than 5% by 2040 — and this at a cost of trillions of dollars in subsidies and credits. It is madness for politicians and corporate leaders to promise "net zero" by 2030 or even 2050. We must face reality and insist, for both strategic and economic reasons, that an adequate supply of fossil fuels is produced in our own country.

Fortunately, there is no pressing need to "transition" to wind and solar. Environmentalis ts present a doomsday scenario of rising seas, catastrophic storms, and worldwide drought — none of which is happening. The number of major hurricane strikes on the U.S. soil. according to NOAA, with data going back to 1850, that number has remained entirely stable: 27 from 1850 to 1900, 32 from 1900 to 1950, and 28 from 1950 to 2000. The deadliest hurricanes in U.S. history occurred in 1900, 1919, and 1926, not in the era of so-called global warming: Katrina, the only devastating 21st-century storm, was the 33rd deadliest storm in our history — and it was devastating because of inadequate government preparation and response.

Even if we wished to change the climate, there's little we could do about it. That comes from the U.N.'s Intergovernment al Panel on Climate Change, which has admitted in the past that a portion of recent warming is due to natural causes and that even a complete global transition to "net zero" would have not prevent further temperature increases, or declines for that matter. In any case, why would we wish to return to cooler "pre-industrial " levels when there are many advantages to warmer temperatures, including higher agricultural productivity.

Today's warming of one degree Celsius is not an "inconvenient truth" — it is, for some, a minor inconvenience. But for most of us, it is not even that; it is an opportunity, as, with warmer temperatures and higher CO2 levels, plants grow more quickly and in regions where they could not have grown before. Warming increases the Earth's productivity, making it possible to feed the 10 billion persons expected by 2050. If the Earth entered a period of sudden cooling, as it well might, the Earth's poor would be at risk of starvation.

Our values with regard to climate, as with regard to so much else, have been twisted by a nihilistic generation that prefers enslavement and government control to freedom and opportunity. In the 1930s, there were millions of compulsive Nazi sympathizers living in the U.S. They enjoyed dressing up in brown uniforms and marching around like robots programmed by a charismatic leader.

Today, those compulsives wear green and agonize over consuming too much of the world's resources and burning fossil fuels in any amount. They march around in asinine protests that are intended to "save the Earth" when they could be saving it, and themselves, by getting a job and working 40 hours a week. Like the nazi brown-shirts of an earlier era, whom they so closely resemble, today's radicals employ violence and intimidation to impose their warped vision on those who disagree with them.
Environmentalis ts celebrate the harm that comes to others who disagree with them, even as they relish their own power and control. In the end, it is a matter of who thrives and who does not. Once we realize this fact, it becomes clear that we must reject the myth of climate catastrophe and return to a rational policy allowing for the unrestricted production of fossil fuels.

The truth is that we are facing a climate catastrophe — in the form of trillions of worthless spending on so-called renewables. Our economy is already beginning to collapse under the burden of this spending, but it is not too late to save it. One must question and oppose all spending on climate change and support rational policies that include reliance on fossil fuels.

"The right to search for truth implies also a duty; one must not conceal any part of what one has recognized to be true.”—Einstein's dictum

The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change acknowledges it has detected no trend of increasing frequency or severity of tropical cyclones and has no evidence human greenhouse gas emissions are contributing to any trend.

University of Colorado-Boulder professor Roger Pielke Jr., having served as a post-doc at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research, doing research on hurricanes and floods, has stated: "There has been no increase in the frequency or severity of hurricanes during the recent period of modest global warming.” He notes:

• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) finds no consensus on the relative role of human influences on Atlantic hurricane activity, quoting the IPCC as follows: "there is still no consensus on the relative magnitude of human and natural influences on past changes in Atlantic hurricane activity, … and it remains uncertain whether past changes in Atlantic TC activity are outside the range of natural variability."
• The IPCC has concluded that since 1900 there is "no trend in the frequency of USA landfall events." This goes for all hurricanes and also for the strongest hurricanes, called major hurricanes.
• Since at least 1980, there are no clear trends in overall global hurricane and major hurricane activity.
• There are many characteristics of tropical cyclones that are under study and hypothesized to be potentially affected by human influences, … but at present there is not a unified community consensus on these hypotheses, as summarized by the World Meteorological Organization, as to whether any of the factors are affected by human greenhouse gas emissions.
• Hurricanes are common, incredibly destructive and will always be with us. Even so, we have learned a lot about how to prepare and recover.

Pielke points out that some of the costliest hurricanes occurred in the early part of the 20th century when average global temperatures were cooler than at present.

Data indicates that although the monetary costs of hurricanes have increased as more infrastructure and valuable property has been constructed on coasts prone to hurricane activity, the real, inflation-adjusted cost of hurricanes has declined significantly as a percentage of national and global GDP, and the number of lives lost has dropped even more steeply. We are better-prepared now—with better warning and tracking systems; better communications; improved, hardened infrastructure; and better post-hurricane recovery technology and responses—than ever before.

2 studies published by the prominent peer-reviewed Nature provide additional evidence global warming hasn’t increased the threats hurricanes pose.

Research published in Nature Climate Change concludes the evidence is robust that tropical cyclones have trended downward in number globally and in every individual cyclone region across the course of the 20th century. An international team of 12 researchers from universities and institutes in Australia, China, and the United States reconstructed past hurricane activity since the 1850s across the various hurricane basins. They used proxy data for past hurricanes because before the era of radar, airplanes dedicated to storm tracking, and satellites, it was virtually impossible to know whether a hurricane formed in the open ocean unless a ship happened to cross its path or it eventually made landfall. The scientists found a peak of hurricane formation across the various basins in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, with a fairly steady decline in hurricanes across the twentieth century for every basin but one. Beginning in the 1950s, hurricanes began to increase in the North Atlantic Basin. However, even in the North Atlantic, where the decline has reversed, the average annual number of hurricanes still has not reached the peak experienced in the early part of the hurricane record. The study reports the annual number of global tropical cyclones—hurricanes, typhoons, and tropical storms—declined by approximately 13% as the planet warmed during the twentieth century. They suggest several factors related to warming might have contributed to the decline, such as changes in the Hadley and Walker tropical ocean circulation patterns and an increase in wind shear.

"What’s happening with global warming is that these underlying conditions are getting more unfavorable for cyclones to form in the first place," Savin Chand, lead author of the study and a senior lecturer at the Federation University in Australia, told cnn. The paper by Chand et al. states "the resolutions of the current reanalysis products are too coarse to make conclusions about TC intensity."

Additional research contradicting the alarmist dogma that climate change is making hurricanes worse was published recently in Nature Communications. Examining the formation of major hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin since 1851, the study found any reported increase in Atlantic hurricane formation or of major hurricanes in the region suggested by previous research was due to "changes in observing practices, [particularly] a substantial increase in monitoring capacity over the past 170 years.” After adjusting for past undercounts of North Atlantic Basin hurricanes in general and major hurricanes in particular, the researchers conclude as follows: "We find here that, once we include a correction for undercounts in the pre-satellite era basin-wide NA HU [hurricane] and MH [major hurricane] frequency, there are no significant increases in either basin-wide HU or MH frequency, or in the MH/HU ratio for the Atlantic basin between 1878 and 2019…. The homogenized basin-wide HU and MH record does not show strong evidence of a century-scale increase in either MH frequency or MH/HU ratio associated with the century-scale, greenhouse-gas-induced warming of the planet. For example, the temporal evolution of the global mean temperature is not closely reflected in the temporal evolution of adjusted MH/HU ratio."

Hurricanes large and small will form and strike land. That’s a natural process. What is clear is that thus far there is no evidence to suggest tropical cyclones are forming more frequently, becoming stronger, or lasting longer than they did before humans began adding significant amounts of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. In short, the data does not support the claim that global warming is making hurricanes worse.

A major cause for the belief in an eminent climate crisis are government assessment reports which present agenda-derived summaries inconsistent with their findings.

For example, natural long term swings of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) affect the sea surface temperature in the region where hurricanes form and can enhance or suppress hurricane activity. So the National Climate Assessment issued by the US government stated the intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest hurricanes, have increased since the early 1980s.

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