The Fed forecasts a 1% drop in core PCE inflation from Q4 2022 to Q4 2023.

Since 1960, such a steep decline has always seen a recession.

The PCE is their preferred measure of inflation.

Keep in mind that the economy is still digesting the $4 tril of stimulus and ZIRP that caused the inflation.

1 There will be no recession. Well, actually there will be a recession, but the government will claim that it is not happening, the media will echo that claim, the public will believe it because that is what it wants to hear, and there will therefor be no recession. Likewise, inflation is ending as we speak. It is, of course not ending, but the government is saying that it is ending, the media is echoing that claim, and the public is believing it because that is what they want to hear, so inflation will end, conveniently right before the election. The timing will work well to make the election fraud more believable.

2 Ah Bill; you're certainly as cynical as I. And as much a realist. I agree; they will SAY there is no recession and no inflation. We'll have plenty of both of course but they'll SAY it and the public - many of them anyway - will believe it because, like, they read it in the news.