A few months ago, the election polling firms said Democrats had made a "come back" because of the Supreme Court's reversal of Roe v. Wade. Now they are saying that the Democrat bump has evaporated. Thing is, there never WAS a Democrat bump. It was just the polling groups' desire to help the Democrats reassert the advantage they held in 2020 and early 2021.

Why do I say this? Because the polling firms are now shifting to "registered" and "likely" voters, not just "adults." Polling "adults" on politics is always useless and gives skewed results, especially when the polling firms always weight it to the Democrats on top of it all.

Polling likely voters in particular and at least registered voters gives a far better view of what might happen in an election. And even that under counts Republican results.

But the reason polling firms don't like to do likely voters is because it always gives more centrist results, especially on their hot button issues. So, they don't poll likely voters so that their results look more consistently left-wing and that way they can continue the left-wing narrative until the last weeks of an election -- i.e. so they can fool voters into thinking Democrats are always leading in ideas and elections.

Tim adds:

Polling is not intended to take the nations temperature but to lead it.

I wrote this about the stupidity of polling back in 2004. You might want to reread it.

1 There's another reason: Democrat voters always want everybody to know what they think about every issue under the sun (which is why many Democrats' cars are held together by bumper stickers); while Republicans are much more apt to say to pollsters "None of your beeswax." Granted, in many cities a Republican bumper sticker would guarantee a bunch of key scratches on the car, especially if it was a nice car...

2 That is exactly right Dana.  Our people don't want to crow about it like theirs do.

Also, there is the Wilder Effect, where people tell pollsters what they think the pollster wants but do not plan to vote that way.

On many issues a person polled will give the p.c. answer. They may be all for "gay marriage" to a pollster when in fact they aren't in favor of it  at all.

You are more likely to get a Wilder Effect if you pooll the general public at random. Many adults simply don't want to rock the boat.

3

help the Democrats reassert the advantage they held in 2020 and early 2021.