March 31, 2020
Polio, Corona, and the Dangers of Shelter-in-Place
Timothy Birdnow
All of the steps being taken to combat Wuhan Flu may be just leading us to a big surge later.
According to Jim Steele Director emeritus of San Francisco State’s Sierra Nevada Field Campus:
[...]
In contrast to Imperial College model suggesting over a million Americans could die, Ioannidis argued, "If
we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by
SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from
my Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1% of the U.S. population gets
infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about
10,000 deaths. This sounds like a huge number, but it is buried within
the noise of the estimate of deaths from "influenza-like illness.†If
we had not known about a new virus out there, and had not checked
individuals with PCR tests, the number of total deaths due to
"influenza-like illness†would not seem unusual this year. At most, we
might have casually noted that flu this season seems to be a bit worse
than average.†The Imperial College and Ioannidis’s model will be tested soon, as American COVID deaths stands at 2,871 as of March 30th
All of the steps being taken to combat Wuhan Flu may be just leading us to a big surge later.
According to Jim Steele Director emeritus of San Francisco State’s Sierra Nevada Field Campus:
We must consider the unintended medical consequences of societal
lockdowns hoping to prevent the spread of COVID 19. Unintended
consequences are exemplified by past polio epidemics that left some of
my classmates crippled. For the most severely afflicted, a polio
infection required, not a ventilator, but an iron lung for children to
breathe. The polio virus had likely been around for thousands of years,
but in the 20th century severe epidemics began. Why?
In 1992 Dr Krause from the National Institute of Health published,
"There are numerous examples of old viruses that have caused new
epidemics as a consequence of changes in human practices and social
behavior. Epidemic poliomyelitis emerged in the first half of this
century when modern sanitation delayed exposure of the virus until
adolescence or adulthood, at which time it produced infection in the
central nervous system and severe paralysis. Before the introduction of modern sanitation, polio infection was acquired during infancy, at which time it seldom caused paralysis but provided lifelong immunityagainst subsequent polio infection and paralysis in later life.
[emphasis mine] Thus, the sanitation and hygiene that helped prevent
typhoid epidemics in an earlier era fostered the paralytic polio
epidemic.â€
Indeed, it was the more affluent people with higher standards of living
that were most affected by polio epidemics, because their children were
more likely isolated from milder strains.
[...]
Recently in the New England Journal of Medicine Dr Fauci wrote,
" If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally
symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported
cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This
suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may
ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which
has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza
(similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to
SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%,
respectively."
Dr John Ioannidis is a Professor of Medicine, of Health Research and
Policy and of Biomedical Data Science, at Stanford University School of
Medicine, director of the Stanford Prevention Research Center, and
co-director of the Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford
He wrote an opinion piece A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data suggesting we may be overreacting.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at
11:20 AM
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It’s very different for our children, especially those with young children, trying to keep them content. No one likes to be cloistered unless it’s a life choice. We are missing our grandchildren, which was the reason we moved away from Connecticut in the first place.
Posted by: paygonline at May 31, 2020 08:41 AM (Yiu2Y)
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