December 2021 vs. December 1889 II: The Rest of the Winter......

A few days ago (23 December), we posted about the similarity between this December (2021) and December 1889. If you are old enough to remember a guy named Paul Harvey, you might remember .... 'and now the rest of the story'.

How did the rest of winter go? This December might provide some clues for the early months of 2022. Or maybe not. Fall 1889 was not particularly warm, in fact it was a chilly 3.5 F below normal. December 1889 ended up +8 F warmer than November 1889 and only 4 F cooler than October 1889 in Columbia, MO.

Fall 2021 was the 6th warmest here (+3.1 F) in Columbia, and that included a November that was only 1.4 F above normal (or what we would call "typical". Thus, December 2021 is running at approximately the same level as November 2021. In that respect, it is like another fall month as December 1889 was.

Winter 1889 - 1890 (December - February) across MO was anywhere from +3.5 F in far NW MO to more than +10 F in the bootheel (map #1 - difference between winter 1889-1890 and the 20th century average). So the rest of the winter was also warm due to unusually strong high pressure (see Map #2 - 500 hPa height anomalies for winter 1889-1890) over the eastern US.

In Columbia, January 1890 was about +7 F, and February 1890 was about +5 F above normal. This winter 1889 - 1890 averaged 41.0 F in Columbia, making it the warmest on record to this day. In fact it is only one of two winters in our record to average above 40 F. The other being 1931 - 1932 averaging 40.7 F.

Incidentally, winter 1931 - 1932 began with a December averaging 43.2 F, which is the current #2 warmest December on the list (and which we should pass here in in a few days). This warm winter of 1931-1932 would show a temperature anomaly pattern nearly identical to those of the 1889 - 1890 below. And the fall months of 1931 were the warmest on record! (Hmm, similar to Fall 2021!!?? - which finished at #6)

Given this information, it is a good bet that the rest of the winter 2021 - 2022 will be exceptionally warm in Missouri. But, don't get too giddy just yet, both March 1890 and March 1932 averaged an identical 37.0 F in Columbia, MO, which is about 6.5 F below normal and both spring seasons were cooler than average (1890 about -2 F / 1932 about -1 F). And as Paul Harvey would say....and now you know the rest of the story.

This from the Mid Missouri Weather Page. Notice how this year is similar to one well before the big growth in Industrial emissions.