June 21, 2025
Oil's Well that Ends Well
Timothy Birdnow
What happens if Iran shuts off the flow of oil?
Shell CEO: Contingency Plans Ready if Strait of Hormuz Closure Triggers Energy Shock
Iran could close the strait, which is the choke-point between the Arabian peninsula and Iran. If Iran moves up military hardware and ships it can close the strait, blocking off oil from Kuwait as well as Saudi Arabia and of course Iran's own oil.
That means Iran can't sell their oil, which means they starve. But they just might do it to keep the mullahs in power. Oil prices would skyrocket.
20% of all oil traded on the market is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz (no, it's not chili or tamales being shipped - that's Hormel).
China, which gets almost ALL of her oil from the Gulf, would be particularly hard-hit. They may well go to war over it.
"Starting tomorrow, for 100 days, no oil tankers or LNG cargoes will be able to pass through the strait without Iran’s approval,”
"This policy is decisive if it is implemented in a timely manner. Any delay in its implementation means enduring more war inside the country. Trump’s battle must be ended with a combination of economy and security.”
Former Iranian Economy Minister Ehsan Khandouzi said on Wednesday.
Interesting as Mr. Trump has as of yet done nothing, zero, nada, the null set.
Of course if Israel were to bomb Iran's Kharg Island, the nexus of all oil and gas in Iran, it would have a similar impact although far less as Kuwaiti oil would still be available. Of course then the Iranians would have nothing to lose. But then neither would the Israelis.
Iran cannot survive this closure; if they want to play chicken they will lose at this game.
Of course there is much they can do; harrass vessels on the high seas (aka privateering) but then there is much WE can do if we send a fleet to stop that. Piracy is still an international crime.
Currently Iran is jamming radio transmissions, imperiling oil tankers. If one should crash we could have a major oil spill in the Gulf of Arabia.
What happens if Iran shuts off the flow of oil?
Shell CEO: Contingency Plans Ready if Strait of Hormuz Closure Triggers Energy Shock
Iran could close the strait, which is the choke-point between the Arabian peninsula and Iran. If Iran moves up military hardware and ships it can close the strait, blocking off oil from Kuwait as well as Saudi Arabia and of course Iran's own oil.
That means Iran can't sell their oil, which means they starve. But they just might do it to keep the mullahs in power. Oil prices would skyrocket.
20% of all oil traded on the market is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz (no, it's not chili or tamales being shipped - that's Hormel).
China, which gets almost ALL of her oil from the Gulf, would be particularly hard-hit. They may well go to war over it.
"Starting tomorrow, for 100 days, no oil tankers or LNG cargoes will be able to pass through the strait without Iran’s approval,”
"This policy is decisive if it is implemented in a timely manner. Any delay in its implementation means enduring more war inside the country. Trump’s battle must be ended with a combination of economy and security.”
Former Iranian Economy Minister Ehsan Khandouzi said on Wednesday.
Interesting as Mr. Trump has as of yet done nothing, zero, nada, the null set.
Of course if Israel were to bomb Iran's Kharg Island, the nexus of all oil and gas in Iran, it would have a similar impact although far less as Kuwaiti oil would still be available. Of course then the Iranians would have nothing to lose. But then neither would the Israelis.
Iran cannot survive this closure; if they want to play chicken they will lose at this game.
Of course there is much they can do; harrass vessels on the high seas (aka privateering) but then there is much WE can do if we send a fleet to stop that. Piracy is still an international crime.
Currently Iran is jamming radio transmissions, imperiling oil tankers. If one should crash we could have a major oil spill in the Gulf of Arabia.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at
09:10 AM
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