May 24, 2025

Oil's Well that Ends WEll

Timothy Birdnow

This is what hapens when you promise to "drill baby drill".

Crude Oil Prices Decline Amid Unexpected US Inventory Buildup

In a puzzling statement the article from the Epoch Times states:

"Concerns about the U.S. economy following Moody’s credit rating downgrade also put a downward pressure on prices."

???????

Donald Trump's whole agenda was and remains to GET CRUDE PRICES DOWN. Get crude prices down you get retail gasoline prices down, and you jumpstart the economy.

The article actually tries to blame Moody's downgrading the U.S. economy for dropping crude prices. How does that work? That would have RAISED prices as money for drilling and other things would become harder to obtain.

Stock prices rose, and that doesn't take a genius to understand; more people are buying oil futures because it's obvious the market will boom very soon. And crude prices declined. This is exactly what you would expect with an oil-friendly government promoting drilling and production.

A May 21 Report from the Energy Information Administration stated:

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.3 million barrels from the previous week.”

"At 443.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 6 percent below the five-year average for this time of year,” the report reads.

The 1.3 million barrel jump in oil stocks came as markets expected a dip in inventories.
A buildup in inventory happens due to multiple factors, such as an increase in production or a decline in demand. Rising levels of inventory suggest market oversupply or that people are using less fuel than normal. This puts downward pressure on oil prices.

Note the inventories are below the five year average; that makes perfect sense. The public is buying more gasoline because they feel renewed confidence in the direction of the country and the oil supply. Forinstance, AAA is predicting record breaking travel numbers for this Memorial Day weekend.b People can afford to drive or fly now.Gas prices have hit a four year low just in time for this holiday weekend.

So, prices are down and yet the media is STILL warning this is a bad sign.

The oil inventory glut was guaranteed to happen as people had been driving and flying less and stockpiles rose. Now the public, thanks to declining prices, are on the move again. And with that movement comes money being spent and an economy loosening up.

The auto club says:

The national average price of regular gas was $3.19 per gallon on May 22, down by more than 11 percent from the $3.61 a year back.

Gee; I wonder what happened a in the intervening time? Oh...Trump was elected.

Trump has been in office just three plus months now.

This all makes perfect sense to anybody except economists and Democrats.

Again, the article blames Moody's downgrading the American economy but how would that work? Oil is a growth market, after all. It's a much safer bet than,say, T-bonds.

Futures are down, but that was predictable when crude preices are dropping. There is less profit in it, by and large. But it is a safer investment now and new investors will be in it soon enough. What we are seing is a transformation of the types of investors now in the market.

This is great news and suggests the U.S. economy is about to heal. Any other interpretation is just plain silly.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 09:49 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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