June 19, 2021
I've been asked to give my opinion on a newly published climate study that has some rather alarmist reporting.
New NASA Study: Earth has been trapping heat at an alarming new rate
From the article:
The main problem I have is with the media reporting of these results. The animated graph in the Verge article shows a planetary energy imbalance of about 0.5 W/m2 in 2005 increasing to about 1.0 W/m2 in 2019.
First of all, the 0.5 to 1.0 W/m2 energy imbalance is much smaller than our knowledge of any of the natural energy flows in the climate system. It can be compared to the estimated natural energy flows of 235-245 W/m2 in and out of the climate system on an annual basis, approximately 1 part in 300.
Secondly, since we don’t have good global energy imbalance measurements before this period, there is no justification for the claim, "the magnitude of the increase is unprecedented.†To expect the natural energy flows in the climate system to stay stable to 1 part in 300 over thousands of years has no scientific basis, and is merely a statement of faith. We have no idea whether such changes have occurred in centuries past.
This is not to fault the CERES data. I think that NASA’s Bruce Wielicki and Norm Loeb have done a fantastic job with these satellite instruments and their detailed processing of those data.
What bothers me is the alarmist language attached to (1) such a tiny number, and (2) the likelihood that no one will bother to mention the authors attribute part of the change to a natural climate cycle, the PDO.
Tim adds:
So typical; the media ignores the natural element of this and declares what is actually a rather mild energy imbalance "unprecedented"
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