June 25, 2022

Milankovitch Cycles

Richard Cronin

The Milankovitch cycles include variations in the Earth’s Precession on a 23,000 to 26,000 year cycle, Obliquity (axial tilt) on a 40,000 year cycle and the Earth’s orbital Eccentricity on a 100,000 year cycle. We appear to be entering a phase of reduced Eccentricity. The Earth’s orbit is becoming more circular.

Precession is like pitch and yaw in an airplane, while Obliquity is like roll in an airplane. Eccentricity can be viewed as an airplane circling the airport for a landing. The Earth is like a big airplane on autopilot. Nobody is at the controls. So tell Al Gore to plant his fat arse in a seat and strap on his seat belt until the plane comes to a complete halt.

Many people tie Milankovitch cycle to Ice Ages and Warm Interglacials, claiming that solar irradiance received by the Earth varies accordingly.

This may be partly true but the major impact is the tidal pumping and gravitational tugging by the Sun as well as planetary alignments, particularly the alignment of Saturn and Jupiter. Gravitational tugging opens up Earth’s tectonic plates and releases more geothermal heat.

As we approach the Winter Solstice, the Earth tilts away from the Sun, imposing greater tensile forces on the Southern Hemisphere. The Southern Hemisphere is also closer to the Sun. It is known that seismic activity in the Southern Hemisphere during the Winter Solstice is twice as much as the Summer Solstice. Such tensile forces open up the Earth’s tectonic plates and releases more heat. The El Niño is due to the stresses finding relief along the Peru-Chile Trench. The La Niña is due to the stresses finding relief along the Tonga Trench.

All of the global effects that we currently observe in rain, floods, snows, tropical storms, hurricanes, droughts, heat waves, and cold waves are directly tied to the warm waters off Tonga driving energetic, moisture-laden air into the atmosphere. The Tonga Trench has been very active since 2021 and continues to be so. On Jan. 15, 2022, we witnessed the most powerful submarine volcano ever recorded. The Winter Solstice was December 21, 2021.

For more information, suggest you peruse the concepts of Plate Climatology by James Edward Kamis.

Guy F. Beebe adds:

The problem is, all of our historical recreations are based upon assumptions. We weren't there to take direct measurements, so, those historical proxies are generated by looking at secondary effects, and estimating what that would mean for temperature, or whatever other measurement they're trying to recreate. Even atmospheric samples, trapped in ice are not, and can not be a faithful representation of what the atmosphere was like at that time. For, through diffusion, those trapped atmospheric samples gained and lost gases for that entire time.

I'm not saying they're useless. Indeed, we should keep trying. Yet, it is very difficult, and indeed, perilous to draw conclusions when neither the fidelity, that is accuracy in time, nor resolution, precision in value, of a variable is clearly understood.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 11:40 AM | Comments (1) | Add Comment
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