June 17, 2024
This post adds an important perspective to the climate debate rarely discussed.
A key point often overlooked in discussions about climate change is the statistical significance of human contributions. If human impact is negligible, climate change is simply natural variations in our climate system. However, if human activities significantly contribute, it can be claimed we are facing serious issues.
Agencies like the MET, BoM, and the IPCC use a non-integrative
The AR(1) model is under-parameter
Dr. Doug Keenan proposed an integrative model using third-order autoregression,
In a
surprising admission, MET acknowledged their AR(1) model is flawed, yet
claimed they don't need models to determine statistical significance—th
The attached image is a test I made of the AR(1) model and it's predictive skills. It has no predictive skills whatsoever. I might go into why this is important. But for brevity, I'll table that discussion for now.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at
09:41 AM
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