July 26, 2023

Heat Wave

John Lees

There are claims that we will see greater temperature extremes due to climate change. But the evidence for this occurring isn't very strong.
When you look at the IPCC report, what they do commit to is that we have evidence for an increase in heatwaves.
So, obviously, if you define a heatwave at some level of heat that rarely occurs then even if the global average only rises by 0.38 degrees C, then we will see more of those heatwave events.
So, that is strictly true.
However that really has not much to do with the story that the media is presenting. They are not saying that heatwaves are now, on average, 0.38 degrees hotter than the 1979 - 2023 average.
Imagine that, the globe is on average 0.38 degrees hotter. And so heatwaves are on average 0.38 degrees hotter, and also therefore more common based on some arbitrarily chosen definition.
0.38 degrees is of course not a temperature difference which would be noticed by humans. There are greater differences in air temperature as you walk from one side of a room to the other!!
So yes this is a factor. But it's a very small factor.
If a person is feeling extremely uncomfortable in summer heat then there is a far greater chance that they are suffering the impacts of the Urban Heat Island effect, or perhaps the effects of their own Subcutaneous Insulation!! (see how delicately I phrased that last point!!)

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Tim adds:

As for the Urban Heat Island Effect I used to read Roger Pielke Sr. and he was monomaniacal on that subject. He was convinced all "global warming" was an artifact of land-use change and nothing more. He made a good case for it too. Pielke was, of course, a top player in the climate game.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 11:17 AM | Comments (4) | Add Comment
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1 The media's portrayal of significantly hotter heatwaves might not align with subtle temperature changes. Considering factors like the Urban Heat Island effect and personal comfort levels is crucial. Let's explore climate science comprehensively for well-informed decisions. | house clean out palm beach gardens

Posted by: Nicholas at July 27, 2023 02:48 AM (bOIyR)

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Posted by: Nicholas at July 27, 2023 02:49 AM (bOIyR)

3 Nicholas they are trying to influence the public. You are right; there are many things that impact how we feel and how warm it is.

Another point; we don't really know what "planetary temperature" is. It is different from one spot to another and we hardly have eyes on every inch of the Earth. It's based on averages and we are making pronouncements about it being "hottest ever" when we really can't say for sure. We had no temperature data for much of the Arctic and Antarctic, or much of the oceans, prior to satellites (in 1979). The "hottest ever" is most often a fraction of a degree above what the last hottest on record recorded, and often that is even murky because NASA and NOAA and CRU have been caught repeatedly reducing past temperatures so as to make the current era seem warmer.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at July 28, 2023 04:56 PM (tRNrL)

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