James Doogue

I have always thought that face masks are likely to reduce the transmission of airborne disease like Covid-19. I have stated as much a number of times here. But I'm always prepared to be persiaded by the evidence.

Certainly if I was in power, and was going to make the wearing of face masks compulsory, I'd confirm that decision was supported by science. That doesn't seem to be a concern for Dan Andrews or Joe Biden.

The scientific literature and recent anecdotal empirical evidence, to my admitted surprise, does not support the mandatory wearing of face masks to protect against airborne respiratory diseases.

Dan Andrews is the infamous leader in the Australian state of Victoria who claimed he instituted a nightime curfew on health advice, when in actuality it was his own idea.

Andrews has now lifted the curfew and some other ridiculous restrictions he imposed when Victoria suffered a deadly second wave of Covid-19 infections. That second wave was solely caused by Andrews deciding to manage quarantine security, and contact tracing, differently to the rest of Australia.

Consequently Victoria is now responsible for 73% of Australia's Covid-19 cases and 90% of Covid-19 deaths, despite making up just 25% of our population on 3% of our land mass.

Victoria, was the only Australian state to mandate face masks. Yesterday, despite Victoria going 12 days without a single Covid-19 death or new infection, Dan Andrews said he's not even considering reviewing the mask mandate until next weekend.

People are still being arrested for not wearing face masks in public. You have the ridiculous sight of people walking alone on a beach, jogging in the park, or horse riding, while wearing a mask.

In the Northern Hemisphere masks are mandated accross Europe and in many states in the US. Joe Biden's stated policy, though even as President he would lack authority, is to have a national mask mandate.

So what is the published research position on masks to fight airborne respiratory diseases? I searched the medical literature databases and found the most specific, comprehensive study was published in May this year by the US Centre for Disease Control and Prevention. The epidemic experts, the very people Joe Biden claims he will listen to.

The research paper reviewed all available evidence on the topic of the efficacy of masks and other non-pharmaceutical measures in the journal report titled, 'Nonpharmaceutical Measures for Pandemic Influenza in Nonhealthcare Settings-Personal Protective and Environmental Measures', May 2020 from the journal, 'Emerging Infectious Diseases' 26(5):967-975 DOI: 10.3201/eid2605.190994

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341080333_Nonpharmaceutical_Measures_for_Pandemic_Influenza_in_Nonhealthcare_Settings-Personal_Protective_and_Environmental_Measures

To be clear, this is looking at the use of non-respirator type masks in non-clinical, non-healthcare settings. In other words, for the public, in public.

The study abstract is included below. In summary the researchers write, that from all the research they could find where randomised control trials have been carried out, that is in scientific trials, there was no statistically significant benefit shown from 'improved hygiene and environmental cleaning' in reducing the transmission of laboratory confirmed influenza.

'Hygiene' looked at hand hygiene and masks procedures implemented in addition to the control group's standard hand hygiene or mask procedures.

'Environmental cleaning' refers to the additional cleaning and 'wipe down' requirements implemented above and beyond the control groups' normal cleaning procedures.

What the result of all these studies imply, is that the hand hygiene, cleaning and mask measures typically implemented during epidemics do not make a statistically different impact on the spread of airborne respiratory diseases such as influenza, or Coronaviruses.

Yes, better hygiene will reduce the spread of bacteria, and therefore reduce other illnesses, which is a good thing during an epidemic. But hygiene and non-respirator type masks have little impact on the spread of airborne respiratory diseases.

The most significant measures which reduce the spread of infections like influenza, and therefore by inference, Covid-19, are:

- Quarantine the infected.

- Isolating anyone with symptoms in case they are infectious. This means people with coughs, runny noses, etc, should not go to work, shopping or socialising. That stops people spreading infected droplets in the air which people will breath regardless of masks.

- Improved coughing and sneezing etiquette. Turning away and coughing or sneezing into a tissue and disposing of it and washing your hands immediately, or into the elbow if no tissue available.

- Social distancing particularly indoors, so that if there are infected people their infected breath is less likely to be inhaled.

ABSTRACT
There were 3 influenza pandemics in the 20th century, and there has been 1 so far in the 21st century. Local, national, and international health authorities regularly update their plans for mitigating the next influenza pandemic in light of the latest available evidence on the effectiveness of various control measures in reducing transmission.

Here, we review the evidence base on the effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical personal protective measures and environmental hygiene measures in nonhealthcare settings and discuss their potential inclusion in pandemic plans.

Although mechanistic studies support the potential effect of hand hygiene or face masks, evidence from 14 randomized controlled trials of these measures did not support a substantial effect on transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza.

We similarly found limited evidence on the effectiveness of improved hygiene and environmental cleaning.

We identified several major knowledge gaps requiring further research, most fundamentally an improved characterization of the modes of person-to-person transmission.

Covid-19 Anecdotal Empirical Data
Tony Heller at Realclimatescience.com has provided the graphs shown below. In each case he's shown the timing of the mask mandates, and what happened to Covid-19 infections after the mask mandate.

In the cases of the UK, Spain, and the US states of New Mexico, Colorado and Montana, after masks were mandated, infections increased by a factor of at least 5 or six.

You might think that if the masks hadn't been mandated, the number of infections could have been worse! But as Tony Heller shows, in his home state of Wyoming, which is immediately below Montana on the map, Covid-19 infections grew more slowly, and to less than half the rate of Montana.

There are plenty of laboratory studies which can show that wearing a surgical or cloth mask, can reduce the transmission of airborne infections. But those studies are done where masks fit well, are fitted and removed correctly, and changed regularly.

The Australian Federal Government's advice on masks published in March answered the question, Do masks protect against coronavirus disease?

'Surgical masks in the community are only helpful in preventing people who have coronavirus
disease from spreading it to others. If you are well, you do not need to wear a surgical mask as
there is little evidence supporting the widespread use of surgical masks in healthy people to
prevent transmission in public.'

This concurred with advice from the World Health Organisation and Donald Trump's senior adviser the mercurial Dr Fauci. No doubt he will change that advice if he keeps his job under Joe Biden.

Administrations which are recommending or mandating masks, do so with the instructions on how to use them.

Even mask advocates, particularly Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer in the US, and Dan Andrews in Australia, do not, and in all practicality, can not follow these instructions:

- Wash or sanitise your hands before putting it on or taking it off. [Did you see any of them do that at a press conference?]

- Make sure the mask covers your nose and mouth and fits snugly under your chin, over the bridge of your nose and against the sides of your face. [How many times have we watched someone talking and seen their colour co-ordinated cloth mask, or ill-fitting surgical masks creep down their nose?]

- Do not touch the front of your mask while wearing or removing it. may

- Do not allow the mask to hang around your neck or under your nose. [Which is what just about every reporter and politician has done when speaking. And what is done by smokers, and people eating or drinking.]

- Do not reuse single use masks; wash and dry reusable masks after use and store in a clean dry place. [How many masks do you think people in mask mandated locations have? Especially when regulations allow any cloth covering, where people are using their scarfs!]

No doubt it is because the above guidances cannot be practicably followed in anything other than a clinical setting; and because the quality of masks is below N95 respirator grade, that the real life randomised control studies done around the world, show masks to have no statistically significant benefit in reducing influenza, and therefore Covid-19.

If anything, based on the experiences in mask mandated zones, it's likely masks can have a negative impact, increasing infections, when mandated to control Covid-19.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 09:37 AM | Comments (3) | Add Comment
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