Timothy Birdnow

The wife and I went to vote yesterday at a local library. Waited two hours in line to get in. This is in the very blue City of St. Louis, which is a bad sign; it means the Democrats are turning out in large numbers. I had hoped St. Charles county and the other exurbs would be doing land-office business but St. Louis would be quiet.

This election is going to come down to vote fraud; if the Democrats have enough time and resources to steal it they will, if not Trump will win in a squeeker, probably.

Or not. There is a chance that the Wilder Effect aka the Bradley Effect comes into play here. This is a quirk of polling in which those surveyed claim they will vote one way but plan to vote another - they just do not want to tell pollsters they are going to do so out of shame or fear. This is usually applied to race; white voters don't want to be thought racist by not voting for a black candidate (It was named for Tom Bradley, an African-American candidate who lost the 1982 California gubernatorial race. Lawrence Douglas Wilder was the 66th Governor of Virginia who lost re-election despite polls showing he was going to win.) But it needn't be just about race, but rather about any candidate the public does not want to admit to supporting.

For instance, polls showed Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter running neck-in-neck up to just a couple of days before the election and even then it was close. But Reagan obliterated Carter in the general in one of history's big landslide elections. Why? Probably because Reagan had been horribly demonized by the media and the public was embarassed to admit they were going to vote for him.

See this pdf for details on the polling leading up to the election of 1980.

As for Mr. Trump, he has always seriously outperformed the polls, and has never been doing so well, neither in 2016 nor 2020. So if the Wilder Effect is in play with Trump (and given how he has been demonized and his supporters abused and even jailed it's small wonder that it would be) Trump should win this thing handily. If.

The basic polling shows it neck and neck but the internals are different and certainly the Harris campaign is growing desperate, hurling "Hitler" around and glomming onto things like that comedian talking about a big pile of trash in the Carribean. That is not the behavior of a campaign that is confident.

Which is totally different from Biden in 2020, who never emerged from his basement but was not in the least worried. Harris and her people are worried. Even solid Democrats like Leon Panetta are sweating bullets right now.

Trump scores better on the things Americans care about, like border security, the economy, etc. Harris only has abortion, and I would argue America is not even as pro-abortion as Harris and probably would be repulsed by her views if given a fair hearing. Trump has gained a lot of ground with many minority groups, including blacks and Hispanics, Muslims, etc. It's gotten so bad for Harris she is forced to try to entice black men to vote for her - what should be a guaranteed base group.

Trump has a lot of the rank-and-file in labor now supporting him. And while he didn't pick up any endorsements from unions (unlike Reagan getting the Teamsters in 1980) many of the unions didn't endorse Kamala either. That is huge. And the head of the Teamsters actually spoke at the Republican convention.

There are more warning signs of impending disaster for Harris than for Trump.

In a September poll slightly more Americans have a favorable rating for Trump than for Harris, according to Gallup,no friend of Mr. Trump's. That number could only have shifted in Trump's favor as Harris has been forced out of seclusion and is now showing just how empty a suit she really is and how little she has to offer.

ccording to Rasmussen Harris is now trailing Trump by two points. BUT three percent (3%) say they’d vote for some other candidate and another two percent (2%) are undecided. Why? Who has no idea how they are going to vote at this point? I suspect the majority of these votes will go Trump - they were just embarassed to tell the pollsters that they "aren't good people" and will vote for the Fascist Russian colluding Jew hating misogynist that is the charicature of Trump. And if 3% of the vote goes elsewhere it hurts Kamala and not so much Trump; these are mostly leftist votes anyway, ones going to Green Party Jill Stein or else to Libertarians. Maybe a small number will disregard Robert Kennedy Jr. and write him in anyway, or vote for him in places that refused to remove his name, but I suspect most will listen to Mr. Kennedy and vote Trump.

Vote fraud is the only thing that will carry the Democrats, in my opinion, and that only if it is close. It may well not be close enough, but it will probably LOOK close. Oh, and the Democrats are going to run the numners way up through fraud even if they lose the Presidency so they can steal House seats and make it look like Trump is the loser in the popular vote. That's why it's so important for every Republican to get out and vote, and do it early so the GOP doesn't waste resources where they do not have to do so.

The issues that matter most to Americans are being reported as Trump wins. That no doubt scares the pants off Harris (not a hard thing to do, get Heels in the Sky's pants off) which explains why they seem increasingly desperate and are openly lying (but then her lips are moving so she's lying.)

I am cautiously optimistic; we'll win if the Donkeys don't have a new, better way to cheat. But the GOP is great at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Luckily Rona McDaniel isn't in charge anymore and Trump's pick Michael Whatley is there instead. Of course Mitch McConnell is still using his superpac to strangle Republican conservatives like Ted Cruz, who is struggling in his re-election bid since he's being outspent three or four to one by the appropriately named Colin Allred and McConnell won't give him one red cent.

I doubt the Democrats will accept the results if Trump wins. And if they cheat their way to victory we shouldn't either.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 12:09 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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