October 20, 2020
This is certainly good news! A number of us have suspected they've secretly believed this because, well, they haven't acted as if they have it in the bag. It's true that they just may have finally learned something from Hillary's loss in 2016 and realized that it wasn't totally because she was just an awful candidate, it was also because she and her people believed they had it won going away.While most polls say the 2020 presidential election is looking good for Joe Biden, some Democratic operatives are concerned about hidden factors that could produce a Trump victory, reports Politico.
"There are more known unknowns than we’ve ever had at any point,†Tom Bonier, CEO of the Democratic data firm TargetSmart, told Politico. "The instruments we have to gauge this race, the polling, our predictive models … the problem is all those tools are built around quote-unquote normal elections. And this is anything but a normal election.â€
During a recent conference call with Democratic Party state chairs, Bonier said that despite the seemingly positive electoral landscape for Biden, even a small variation in turnout projections could impact the outcome.
One big unknown is the impact of voter turnout. While Democrats appear to have the edge in early voting, polls have suggested that Republicans will vote in larger numbers in person on Election Day.
However, according to a report from the Washington Examiner, the GOP "is keeping pace in mail-in and early voting in three key swing states despite polls showing early voting should clearly favor Joe Biden.â€
In Michigan as of Wednesday, just over 1 million ballots have been returned, 40% from registered Democrats, with the same from registered Republicans. In Wisconsin, 40% of the 711,855 returned ballots have been from Democrats, while 38% have come from Republicans. The GOP actually leads in Ohio, with 45% of 475,259 early ballot returns coming from Republicans, compared to 43% from registered Democrats. The preliminary data matches up with the requests by party affiliation for mail-in ballots.
The data contradicts national polls showing Biden supporters overwhelmingly plan to vote by mail or early in person. According to a Pew Research poll released Friday, 55% of voters who plan to cast their ballot in person before Election Day support Biden, compared to 40% who support President Trump.
One major red flag for Democrats is Trump’s advantage in new voter registrations. Republicans have been outperforming new voter registrations in key states compared to previous presidential election years. The Biden campaign lost significant ground to the Trump campaign by not doing any door-knocking to register voters because of the pandemic. The sudden decision to reverse course and carry out door-knocking seemed to indicate their growing concern.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at
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It could lead to bloodshed.
I think the pollsters know full well they are gaslighting America. Now they have to tighten the polls up to avoid being completely at odds with reality. But they will never admit they knew this all along.
My wife worked as a pollster for a while. She made the mistake of thinking they actually wanted accurate results. It was an eye opener for her; she realized these polls were intended to encourage the results they wanted.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at October 22, 2020 07:46 AM (Tw4tA)
Posted by: Dana Mathewson at October 22, 2020 02:49 PM (6Btpe)
I suppose America's public educational system may have produced this many morons, but I rather doubt it.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at October 23, 2020 06:36 AM (BtO0P)
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