November 10, 2020

Benford's Law

From Roy Spencer

My dive into the 2020 Philadelphia presidential *primary* election data, attempting to understand Benford's Law and possible evidence for fraud in the reporting of vote totals. SPOILER: Bernie Sanders has the largest evidence of fraud of 4 primary candidates. NOTE: In the following Trump graph, compare the black line to the purple line... they lay on top of one another, indicating agreement with the theoretical expected values. The green line is classical Benford's Law, which only works for number spanning a few orders of magnitude (not the case for Trump or Gabbard in Philadelphia).

http:// www.drroyspencer .com/2020/11/ benfords-law-evi dence-of-fraud- in-reporting-of -voter-precinct -totals/

Image may contain: text that says 'Philadelphia Presidential Primary, 2020 Benford's Law Analysis Donald Trump 6,812 Precincts 0.45 0.40 Precinct Stats. Avg. Votes 3.11 StdDev Votes 8.54 Min. Votes o Max. Votes 124 Occurrence 0.30 0.35 of 0.25 Rate 0.20 jeuo!pe 0.10 0.15 0.05 0.00 drroyspencer.com 1 2 3 4 5 6 First Digit Value 7 8 Donald Trump 9 Theory expected Benford's Law'

From Tim:

Facebook and Twitter are suspending accounts that mention Benford's law.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 08:35 AM | Comments (5) | Add Comment
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