August 06, 2024

Behind the Curve at FED

Diane Kimura

This is just a reminder that the Fed's FOMC does not control long-term interest rates.

"The market" does.

The market has delivered the equivalent of four 25 basis-point rate cuts since the 10-year T-Bond's recent closing high of 4.71% in late April 2024.

Meanwhile, the Fed Funds Rate is unchanged since Aug. 2023 at 5.33%.

Remember that the Fed was "behind the curve" during 2021- 2023 when inflation spiraled out of control, declaring it "transitory," even as the 10-Year T-Bond rose from 0.56% in Aug. 2020 to 2.15% just before Mar. 17, 2022 when the FOMC first raised the FFR. In other words, "the market" hiked long-term rates by the equivalent of almost seven 25 basis-point increases before the Fed woke from its stupor.

The Powell's Fed has strayed from its core mission and shifted its focused on the risks to banks from "climate change" and a "diversity." No U.S. bank has ever failed because of such risks.

Meanwhile, during 2023, the 2nd, 3rd and 4th largest bank failures in U.S. history (First Republic Bank, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, each with more than $100 billion in assets) took place because of the key traditional risks facing banks:

Credit Risk and Interest-Rate Risk.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 07:55 AM | Comments (5) | Add Comment
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