November 30, 2021

Arguing with Polite Idiots: Inflation Edition

Timothy Birdnow

In a Facebook discussion with a polite liberal (there actually is one left) I debate the causes of inflation.

Mike Reynolds disagrees the money supply causes inflation.

Mike says:

At the moment inflation is a fantastic sign that the economy is heating up. Do you really think there is ANY danger now of the economy perpetually overheating like it did in the 70's? Deflation and stagnation are far worse than inflation, they mean the economic engine is failing. When inflation returns that is the sign that the engine has turned back on, so this is good news.

Mike replies:

The Weimar Republic had an inflation rate in the quadrillions due to onerous war reparations that the Allies forced Germany to pay. In more natural circumstances, if inflation is an actual problem then it IS a matter of overheating the economy. The economy is definitely not overheating. The problem with the economy had little to do with supply and demand, the problem was underemployment
. Now that vaccinations have allowed much of the economy to open back up naturally inflation is going to increase. It always does when the economy gets a jumpstart.

I retort: Mike Reynolds one need but look at Wiemar Germany to understand what happens when you explode the money supply. It is NOT a matter of overheating the economy here, as this graph quite clearly illustrates. The supply chain issues are incidental; the deman was there before the pandemic and remains so for most items. The real issue is the money supply, which was and is and always will be the primary driver of inflation.

Mike's response:

The Weimar Republic had an inflation rate in the quadrillions due to onerous war reparations that the Allies forced Germany to pay. In more natural circumstances, if inflation is an actual problem then it IS a matter of overheating the economy. The economy is definitely not overheating. The problem with the economy had little to do with supply and demand, the problem was underemployment
. Now that vaccinations have allowed much of the economy to open back up naturally inflation is going to increase. It always does when the economy gets a jumpstart.

Tim retorts:

Yes but why do you think that happened Mike, and how do you think it started? It was the expansion of the money supply. In the end that was what caused it. I would add that has been the cause of hyperinflation in every country on Earth.Here is a list of some of the worst. https://www.businessinsider.com.au/worst-hyperinflation-episodes-in-history-2014-4 The fact is even demand-pull inflation is ultimately caused by an expansion in the money supply; high demand for overseas goods coupled with an eroding value of the dollar makes those goods more expensive. We get less for our buck. That is a best-case scenario. And in this current instance? Production capacity is absolutely adequate. https://schiffgold.com/key-gold-news/inflation-isnt-a-supply-chain-problem-its-a-money-problem/ From the article:

"One of the reasons often given for rising prices is "supply chain bottlenecks” caused by the sudden recovery in demand. But a dive into the data reveals that most commodity prices have risen in tandem in an environment of wide levels of spare capacity, and in some cases, even overcapacity. The supply chain isn’t the problem. The money is the problem.

Economist Daniel Lacalle analyzed the numbers for an article published by the Mises Wire and found the "supply chain” excuse doesn’t hold up under scrutiny.

Lacalle looked at the utilization ratio of industrial and manufacturing productive capacity. Russia is at 61%. India is at 66%. Lacalle called this "a clear level of structural overcapacity.” In China, capacity utilization is at 77%, still below pre-pandemic levels. In fact, no G-20 country’s capacity utilization is above 85%.

So, what is this telling us? As Lacalle put it, "There is ample available capacity all over the world.”

Loose monetary policy exacerbates overcapacity by prolonging the survival of "zombie companies.” Empirical studies by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) have documented this phenomenon. A zombie company is a firm that can’t service its debt with operating profits. The availability of low-interest debt refinancing along with government stimulus allows these companies to survive far longer than they otherwise would. This short-circuits the process of "creative destruction” in the economy and leads to the perpetuation of overcapacity. According to Lacalle, "Low interest rates and high liquidity have perpetuated or increased global installed excess capacity in aluminum, iron ore, oil, natural gas, soybeans and many other commodities.”'

I would add that high inflation follows the expansion of the money supply. It expanded under Nixon when he took us off the gold standard, for instance, and we had high inflation rates. Nixon expanded the money supply. We also saw this in 1920 when the inflation rate was 15.61%, leading to the Depression of 20-21. Inflation in the latter half of the decade gave us the roaring '20's, but ended in the collapse that was the Great Depression.

Mike responds:

Timothy Birdnow that is an ad for gold which is an extremely unreliable source of information. As I said about O'Reilly, I felt so sad for him having to stoop to grovelling the usual doomsday scenario of gold ads. This one is a little different but its still an ad for gold. That is in no way a trustworthy source of information, no commercial ad is.

Tim replies:

It in no way invalidates the point of the article, which is what was not written by the people selling gold but merely posted there. If you don't like that source there are plenty of others Mike.And it does not invalidate the facts involved. Here is another source for this source of the article. https://mises.org/wire/supply-bottlenecks-excuse-inflation It has nothing to do with the Gold Company. I just tire of doing research for everybody.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 01:41 PM | Comments (97) | Add Comment
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