Scott Snell

From the National Snow and Ice Data Center, a short video showing maximum sea ice extent from 1979-2023. Again, the red line shows the statistical average value over that interval. And once again, if there's a downward trend, I'm not seeing it.

For those who think the planet is about to burst into flame, think again. We have major, permanent ice caps on both poles. This is quite rare in earth history. In fact, at this exact moment, our planet is colder than it has been for about 95 percent of its history. On a 7-point scale, with 1 being extreme "hothouse" and 7 being severe "icehouse," Earth currently rates about a 6.75.

For the last 2.5 million years, we have been in an ice age, the coldest period in at least 250 million years. We probably haven't even bottomed out yet, so the worst is still to come. In all likelihood, millions of years of glacial conditions lie ahead.

By an accident of fate, we happen to be alive during a rare "interglacial" period, a brief interval of relative warmth. This particular interglacial, the Holocene ("wholly recent,") began about 12,000 years ago. But overall temperatures peaked about 6000 years ago and have been declining since, with occasional interruptions such as our current period of warming. At the current rate, the return of glacial conditions is only a couple thousand years away.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ucKtf_GopfQ

The next glacial cycle is a statistical certainty and overdue. The last thing we need to worry about are a couple of degrees of warmth.

So enjoy this little warm spell while it lasts, because it won't. And when the ice does come back, our remote descendants will look back on this balmy epoch with envy.

March Arctic Sea Ice Extent 1979 to 2023
youtube.com

Roy W. Spencer observes:

The concern isn't wintertime sea ice. It's always exceeding cold there in winter. It's the late summer meltback that has a long-term downward trend. Not that *I* think it's a problem... just saying what the concern is among the hand-wringers.

Scott Snell replies:

I know this. But if we think it through, a real warming trend, one to worry about, would also affect winter ice.

Tim adds:

I do not understand the summer meltback. The Antarctic is still cold enough that anything inside the Antarctic convergence shouldn't melt - sea or land - any more now than it had. If the sea ice is melting the land ice should do likewise and we know EAIS isn't melting. Warm water has a tough time getting through the circumpolar current, wich is deep and wide. I think this sea-ice melt is better explained by undersea volcanism. Am I wrong?

Bjørn K Vottestad adds:

The ice has been melting for 300 years...

Changes in Barents Sea Ice Edge Positions in the Last 442 Years.
https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation?paperid=110174&fbclid=IwY2xjawC1TPVleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHWDdF1j_MTf4HtA6JvVcxdu2UuyK5XUckB4FvGJ_pSDJ3MWvx6rmND9Quw_aem_AU8F6Q07-4D1ysP1LuMWOVGwwRZ67iVoxWJNLyvm4QZYXkbueikARPkrGuQg3h41rmrJKMIgKEkxTZJXaADbQx5O

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