March 29, 2022

About that Sea Level Rise

This from Tom Leeds:

This is a lengthy scientific document that studies sea level rise in the Pacific region, including Australia. It completely debunks the often repeated statements that the sea level is rising at alarming rates.
"Relative sea-level rise and land subsidence in Oceania from tide gauge and satellite GPS", © 2020 Alberto Boretti, published by De Gruyter.
(This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.)

Basically it looks at sea level rise in the Pacific region, and the full study can be found at:

The oceans have been rising for millennia. Miami is sinking from over building and other factors. The trend in Miami is to build as close to the water as possible. This isn’t ‘climate change’, it’s man’s stupidity. It’s unresearched factoids like this that are making people understand they’ve been duped by AGW.

This measured data shows that none of these California locations are experiencing coastal sea level rise acceleration since climate alarmist first made such erroneous and flawed sea level acceleration claims before the U.S. Senate in 1988.

Then there is the problem of the very ground on which Miami Beach and much of South Florida sits.
Made from the remnants of ancient coral reefs, the porous limestone beneath the region is not unlike Swiss cheese, with natural underground "pipes” that allow water to bubble up to the surface.

The bedrock in parts of Florida is "made from the remnants of ancient coral reefs” because, not so long ago, it was underwater, when sea level was 1-2m higher than it is today. There are also "remnants of ancient coral reefs” outboard and in much deeper water than modern coral reefs, because, also not so long ago, sea level was about 100m lower than it is today. This is called glacioeustasy what sea level does during ice ages. We are fortunate to be living in an interglacial stage of an ice age.
Sea level isn’t doing anything now that it hasn’t been doing for the past 200 years.

James Ervin adds:

Wow! Boretti (2020) that you linked is quite a study.

The paper examines 14 long-term tide gauges covering almost half the planet from Sydney Australia to Prince Rupert, Canada.

"All the LTT tide gauges of the Pacific consistently show a small sea-level rise, with a significant contribution by subsidence, and negligible acceleration."

Watson 2018 - How well do AR5 Sea Surface-height model projections match observed rates of sea level rise at the regional scale?

"Conclusion: ... This paper provides a snapshot of how closely current rates of sea-level rise from observational data records (tide gauges) are represented by the ensemble mean of the AR5 model-projection products at the regional scale, considering 19 sites across the global ocean over the period of common coverage (2007–2016). …
However, the error margins are quite wide, masking the fact that the mean "geocentric” velocity for the model-projection products are higher than the mean of the observational records for nearly all stations across all RCP experiments, and are likely in the range of 1.6–2.5 mm/year. At the 95% confidence level across all RCPs, there is no clear spatial pattern to the larger differences between the mean velocities of projection model outputs and the observational records."

They tend to change the data when it shows any cooling that does not agree with the models.

Another line of evidence: "contribution of thermal expansion to sea level rise was actually 50 percent larger than previous estimates." Yet, tide gauges and satellite altimetry continue to show no appreciable acceleration in the rate of sea level rise.

https:// tidesandcurrents sltrends/ sltrends_station .shtml?id=150-0 21
Look up actual tide gauge data or any of the recent regional studies that are available. The actual science does not detect the acceleration implied in the blog pages.

• Duvat (2018) A global assessment of atoll island planform changes over the past decades. and Boretti (2021) Why the low-lying islands of the Pacific and Indian Oceans are expanding? • Meli et al (2021) Sea-Level Change along the Emilia-Romagna Coast from Tide Gauge and Satellite Altimetry.
• Watson (2020) Updated Mean Sea-Level Analysis: Australia
• Watson (2019) Updated Mean Sea-Level Analysis: South Korea
• Houston and Dean (2011) Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyses and Houston (2021) Sea-Level Acceleration: Analysis of the World’s High-Quality Tide Gauges

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