October 10, 2024
Inflated Wind Speed
Roy W. Spencer
Hurricane Milton wind speeds at landfall: Another case of exaggerated estimates? I went through all of the highest sustained wind speeds the Hurricane Center listed for several hours around landfall time: The average observed by stations was 67 mph, and the average of the NHC official value was 114 mph. That's a 47 mph difference. The best positioned station was just offshore of Venice Beach, which measured 78 mph at landfall, which was 42 mph lower than the NHC estimate (120 mph). The same thing happened with Helene: our UAH storm intercept team measured only 60 mph at landfall, whereas the NHC value was 140 mph.
Tim adds:
With precision like that is it any wonder why we doubt the temperature records as provided by NASA and NOAA? I mean, if they can so inflate the wind speed of a hurricane, why do we not think they would inflate the historical temperature record?
They always seem to round up - and sometimes WAY up - to make it more dramatic, it seems to me. Or for a more nefarious purpose (like getting carbon taxes or new government regulations of the economy).
One more reason not to trust any alphabet agency when they tell us the sky is falling if we don't pay them more money.
Hurricane Milton wind speeds at landfall: Another case of exaggerated estimates? I went through all of the highest sustained wind speeds the Hurricane Center listed for several hours around landfall time: The average observed by stations was 67 mph, and the average of the NHC official value was 114 mph. That's a 47 mph difference. The best positioned station was just offshore of Venice Beach, which measured 78 mph at landfall, which was 42 mph lower than the NHC estimate (120 mph). The same thing happened with Helene: our UAH storm intercept team measured only 60 mph at landfall, whereas the NHC value was 140 mph.
Tim adds:
With precision like that is it any wonder why we doubt the temperature records as provided by NASA and NOAA? I mean, if they can so inflate the wind speed of a hurricane, why do we not think they would inflate the historical temperature record?
They always seem to round up - and sometimes WAY up - to make it more dramatic, it seems to me. Or for a more nefarious purpose (like getting carbon taxes or new government regulations of the economy).
One more reason not to trust any alphabet agency when they tell us the sky is falling if we don't pay them more money.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at
08:29 AM
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1
Well, Martha's eldest brother Jim, who lives in Paisley, Oregon, texted her two or three days ago to say that the town's wind gauge had broken after registering a wind speed of 120 MPH. This is not what that area of the country normally experiences!
Posted by: Dana Mathewson at October 11, 2024 12:04 AM (LsX8Y)
2
Hmm...in Oregon? That IS unusual Dana.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at October 11, 2024 06:35 AM (AyPeg)
3
And Jim is not given to hyperbole either.
Posted by: Dana Mathewson at October 12, 2024 12:43 AM (LsX8Y)
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