April 16, 2024

Is CO2 a Forcing or Feedback

Jim Church

H/T Joseph Fournier, LinkedIn

D.R. Feldman et al's 2015 publication served as one of the first long term measurements and confirmation of the spectroscopic changes occurring along the characteristic absorption / re-emission spectral lines of atmospheric CO2.

The authors refer to these changes as a "radiative forcing or RF", which in physics is different than "radiative feedbacks". For while a forcing can induce a change, a feedback can only alter the rate (+/-) of change.

These authors quantified the RF from the 22 ppm rise in CO2 over the measurement period to be a mere 0.2 Wm-2decade-1.

The white elephant in the room seen in this plot is the fact that the strong seasonal cycle influence on the intra-annual RF.

From the influence of the seasonal cycle we see the RF rapidly rise in the Spring and then decline in the Fall. Note the slopes (+/-) here are much greater than the longer term RF of 0.2 Wm-2decade-1.

Note that there is no allowance in mainstream climate debates for CO2 to be anything more than a RF, while skeptics such as myself continue to argue that CO2 like H2O may simply be a feedback.

Note that the rise in CO2 in the spring is the only empirical evidence of where it LEADS changes in temperature. In the seasonal cycle in the Northern Hemisphere, CO2 concentrations peak in April, while temperatures peak in July.

No one would say that in this scenario, CO2 is causing the surface to warm, as we all know that orbital dynamics and changes in sunshine are responsible.

Likewise, we all know that CO2 peaks in April given the rates of photosynthesis at this point in the seasonal cycle begin to outpace the rates of decay and that the true RF here is from visible light (aka sunshine).

In conclusion, while this pivotal paper definitely shows a small rise in long term RF from rising CO2 of only 0.2 Wm-2decade-1, more importantly it shows that CO2 is also a feedback in response to change sunshine intensity as modulated by orbital dynamics (aka seasonal cycle).

The phrase "orbital dynamics" is used purposefully, as there is ample evidence that longer term changes in CO2 are also induced by orbital dynamics. In my view, Milankovitch Cycles down to the ENSO cycle, can be collectively viewed as orbital dynamics.

http://asl.umbc.edu/pub/chepplew/journals/nature14240_v519_Feldman_CO2.pdf
May be an image of ‎text that says '‎0.5 Observational determination of surface radiative forcing by CO2 from 2000 to 2010 D. R. Feldman et al, Nature, 2015 Seasonal Cycle Influence Forcing eedback? feedback? -ve Forcing +ve or or 405 400 0.4 (u 0.3 bong 0.2 ኢቅር 0.1 o -0.1 395 390 תחסס, 385 380 375 I CO2 Surface Forcing Increase 0.2 Wm²decade-1 370 8 2000 2002 365 360 2004 2006 2008 355 Year 2010‎'‎

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The Spending Pricetag

Diane Kimura

For every $1 Tril spent by Biden, it is an additional $3,000 in tax burden for every man, woman, and child.

Biden's $2 Tril bill cost each American $6k in taxes in his first 100 days alone.

The national debt is $34 tril and growing. That translates to roughly $252,500 per taxpayer.

Let the good times roll!

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Whirling Dervishes

Richard Cronin

Published on the same day.

Melting ice caps slowing rotation is NBC News.

Speeding of rotation on CBS News

These two stories were published on the same day a few weeks ago
notthebee.com


Tim's 2p

I think the word both of them were searching for was RATINGS, not rotation.

Frankly I think both of 'em are just plain dizzy.

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The Mad Doomsday Clock Maker

Sandra Jane Wong

In 1961 Kennedy said, "We dare not tempt them with weakness. For only when our arms are sufficient beyond doubt can we be certain beyond doubt that they will never be employed.”
As president, Biden has projected American weakness in a Carter-esque fashion, starting with his chaotic and deadly withdrawal from Afghanistan, which a State Department report said suffered from "constantly changing policy guidance,” and a top general described as a "strategic failure.” Israel deserves the kind of American resolve demonstrated during the Cuban missile crisis of Kennedy's time. But, Biden is no Kennedy. He’s a husk. Currently, the Doomsday Clock is set at 90 seconds to midnight. Biden isn’t just a national disaster, he’s a global catastrophe. The destabilization in the Middle East is directly attributable to his ignoring one of Trump’s great achievements — the Abraham Accords. Democrats push the hands of the Doomsday Clock ever closer to midnight, as they weakly play their partisan small ball, while the rest of the world burns.

Added note of disgust: The administration of leftist President Joe Biden did not move to renew expiring sanctions in Iran’s drone and ballistic missile production at the United Nations in October, shortly after the Iran-backed massacre of an estimated 1,200 people in Israel and Saturday’s unprecedented direct missile assault by Iran on the country.

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Broken Covenant

Timothy Birdnow

It's too bad we've forgotten all of that. We are now an oligarchy ruledbythe force of arms and the law is a weapon to impose the will of the oligarchs.

Chester McAteer

WHAT DID THE FOUNDERS CREATE?

A COVENANT!

"The compound government of the United States is without a model, and to be explained by itself, not by similitudes or analogies”
-James Madison

The Constitutional Convention's deliberate choice of words is telling. By calling it 'The Federal Government of These States', they emphasized the decentralized nature of the government they were creating, rather than a centralized national authority.

Additionally, the fact that this name was given after the Convention was fully formed and the Constitution had been entirely finished, demonstrates their commitment to a collaborative and thoughtful approach to federalized rather than centralized governance.

John Adams wrote of the Constitution:

"Men of learning find nothing new in it. Men of taste, many things to criticize. And men without either, not a few things which they will not understand. It will, nevertheless, be read and praised, and become a powerful engine in forming public opinion.”

Madison argued that the Confederation was inadequate for the governance of the United States, as it lacked the fundamental principles of a political constitution. Instead, it was a treaty between independent states, which could not be relied upon for punctual and unanimous obedience to federal acts. This led to rampant treaty violations, which could have had disastrous consequences had it not been for the intervention of other nations.

The central objective of the American political system was to establish an effective government that would maintain order, provide security for property, and safeguard the hard-won liberties and the spirit of liberty that had become the pride of independent Americans. Madison's strategy was to introduce significant and far-reaching reforms that were shaped to the new spirit of self-governing men, without destroying in radical fashion the continuity of political institutions.

As Madison’s meticulous Notes on the Debates demonstrate, the bedrock principles of representation and freedom, intricately woven into the fabric of the Convention, resonated deeply with the delegates. Whether hailing from the commerce- and fishing-oriente d states of New England, the agriculturally rich and diversified 'Middle' states, or the Southern states with their focus on staple crops and exports, all delegates sought to create a new governmental framework that would provide both order and security while preserving freedom for the people.

To ignore the connection between the Federal Convention and the iconic words penned by Jefferson in the Declaration of Independence, which explicitly outlines the right of a free people to establish a new government based on principles and a form that ensures their Safety and Happiness, is a peculiarity that only those who deliberately distort the Constitutional Convention into a false antithesis to the spirit of '76 should be tasked with explaining.

On the contrary, as explicitly stated in the Notes document, the ultimate source of political authority and power resides unfailingly with the people, expressed within the framework of their Sovereign States and it is this principle that forms the bedrock of democratic governance; furthermore, the Constitution, with its intricate system of checks and balances, including bicameralism, separation of powers, and federal division of functions between the national and state authorities, remains a shining example of republican governance at its finest.

The idea that government should be based on the consent of the governed is the fundamental principle of legitimate government, as it eradicates the prescriptive subordination of individuals in society. Madison's articulation of a Republic in various contexts highlights his intention to create a democratic republic, or a representative democracy, where the will of the people is represented through elected officials.

Madison noted that America was the sole country to have taken the concept of popular government through elected representatives of 'we the people' from theory to practice. Additionally, America was the only large country to have implemented this non-monarchical , representative form of government in practice, creating an 'extensive republic'.

The Federal Convention Debates offer a unique perspective on the challenges of self-governance and the importance of finding a balance between weak and oppressive government. By examining the Debates in detail, it becomes clear that they represented a turning point in political thought and laid the groundwork for a new era of constitutional development.

"As the weakness and wants of man naturally lead to an association of individuals, under a common authority whereby each may have the protection of the whole against danger from without, and enjoy in safety within, the advantages of social intercourse, and an exchange of the necessaries & comforts of life: in like manner feeble communities, independent of each other, have resorted to a Union, less intimate, but with common Councils, for the common safety agst powerful neighbors, and for the preservation of justice and peace among themselves.”
-James Madison


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U.S. Lying About Ukraine and Bioweapons

This from an Arkansas fellow named Bubba Bob:

the US lying about Ukraine & bio-weaponry with Covid, and it is where they deleted their original posts: https://web.archive.org/web/20170130193016/https://photos.state.gov/libraries/ukraine/895/pdf/dtro-kharkiv-eng.pdf

https://web.archive.org/web/20210511164310/https://photos.state.gov/libraries/ukraine/895/pdf/dtro-luhansk-eng.pdf

https://web.archive.org/web/20170221125752/https://photos.state.gov/libraries/ukraine/895/pdf/dtro-dnipropetrovsk-eng.pdf

https://web.archive.org/web/20210506053014/https://photos.state.gov/libraries/ukraine/895/pdf/dtro-vinnitsa-eng.pdf

https://web.archive.org/web/20170221125752/https://photos.state.gov/libraries/ukraine/895/pdf/dtro-dnipropetrovsk-eng.pdf

https://web.archive.org/web/20170207122550/https://photos.state.gov/libraries/ukraine/895/pdf/dtro-kherson-fact-sheet-eng.pdf

https://web.archive.org/web/20170223011502/https://photos.state.gov/libraries/ukraine/895/pdf/dtro-ternopil-fact-sheet-eng.pdf

https://web.archive.org/web/20170208032526/https://photos.state.gov/libraries/ukraine/895/pdf/dtro-zakarpatska-fact-sheet-eng.pdf

https://web.archive.org/web/20170208032526/https://photos.state.gov/libraries/ukraine/895/pdf/dtro-zakarpatska-fact-sheet-eng.pdf

https://web.archive.org/web/20210505061606/https://photos.state.gov/libraries/ukraine/895/pdf/dtro-lviv-dl-eng.pdf

https://web.archive.org/web/20170201004446/https://photos.state.gov/libraries/ukraine/895/pdf/dtro-lviv-rdvl-eng.pdf

https://web.archive.org/web/20161230143004/https://photos.state.gov/libraries/ukraine/895/pdf/dtro-eidss.pdf

https://web.archive.org/web/20210506212717/https://photos.state.gov/libraries/ukraine/895/pdf/dtro-pathogen-asset-control.pdf

https://web.archive.org/web/20170207153023/https://photos.state.gov/libraries/ukraine/895/pdf/dtro-dnipropetrovsk-rdvl_eng.pdf

https://web.archive.org/web/20170211022339/https://photos.state.gov/libraries/ukraine/895/pdf/kiev-ivm-fact-sheet-eng.pdf

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Biden's Student Loan Cash Bonanza

Diane Kimura

According to a Penn-Wharton study: Biden's new student loan plan will cost taxpayers another $84B, bringing total to $559B.

The biggest winners are 750,000 people with 20 years in repayment.

Their average debt relief is $25,500+ and average household income is $312,000+.

Great. The 67% of the population without degrees and has an average income below $100k/yr is paying off higher education costs for people who cannot manage their own loans at $313k/yr.

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Apologies for the Break in Posting

Dear readers

Sorry for the gap in posting; I was seriously under the weather for a few days. But I'm feeling better now and will be back on the horse.

Cheers!

Tim

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April 13, 2024

The Stalinist FBI

Timothy birdnow

More Abuse of Power by the FBI.

FBI Interrogated Trump’s Valet Driver without Trump’s Knowledge – And Turned Ambush Interview Into Perjury Trap: Court Docs

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/04/fbi-interrogated-trumps-valet-driver-without-trumps-knowledge/

And yet Mike the teenie little Johnson pushed his caucus to reauthorize FISA which will allow the FBI to continue in this Stalinist abuse of power.

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Yes, Trump Did Call Out the National Guard

Timothy Birdnow

Sooo.....

The national guard was in fact approved by Donald Trump to restore order on January 6, top brass will testify, in contradiction to the J6 committee and their lies.

From the Daily Mail:

* D.C. National Guard officers on duty on January 6, 2021 will testify in the House
* Wednesday hearing will examine why National Guard deployment was delayed
* READ: Former Acting Defense Sec. Christopher Miller tells DailyMail.com he felt 'threatened' into silence by the Jan. 6 Committee

[...]


Whistleblowers from the Washington D.C. National Guard will tell Congress that Donald Trumpdid want them deployed during the Capitol riot and the Army delayed telling them to mobilize in a bombshell hearing next week.

DailyMail.com can exclusively reveal that at least three officers will appear Wednesday before a House subcommittee to claim their stories were also ignored by the Democrat-led January 6committee, because it didn't fit their narrative.

The hearing will aim to further prove that Acting Defense Secretary at the time Christopher Miller did give advance approval of D.C. National Guard deployment at the direction of then-President Donald Trump.

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They Can Dish it Out but Not Take It

Timothy Birdnow

The ultimate hypocrisy.

Yes, Democrats really ARE complaining about Republican efforts to deny Joe Biden ballot access after having done the very same to Donald Trump.

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Jerome Powell is Woke Tyrant with SaviorCoplex

Timothy Birdnow

Jerome Powell doesn't want to be remembered as a man who protected and helped guide the American economy through hard times. No. He wants to be remembered as the man who held the line against Donald Trump.

I kid you not.

The O'Keefe Media Group (OMG) revealed that the Fed Chair believes it is his solemn duty to save America from MAGA.

Also, he has been heavily involved in using the Fed to promote DEI and other woke causes like global warming.

This has all come out in conversations with Aurel Hizmo, chief economist at the Federal Reserve.

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Deepfake Reichstag Fire

Timothy Birdnow

The Ruling Class is wargaming a Reichstag fire aka a Deepfake crisis.

Practice makes perfect!

They are preparing another nasty surprise to spring on Trump and Middle America.

FTA:

Deepfake Dilemma war game and other "nonprofits and good-government groups” are actively working to build a nationwide network of "former officials, technology specialists, and others to help local authorities detect deepfakes in real time and respond with accurate information.”

That might be a good thing, if it weren’t for the fact that most of those involved appear to have a strong bias against Donald Trump, raising serious questions about whether they would use a future deepfake event to benefit Joe Biden.

One of the event’s participants was Kathryn Boockvar, a Democrat who served as Pennsylvania’s secretary of state during the 2020 presidential election. Trump’s campaign sued Boockvar’s office in 2020, alleging that the state and local officials violated election law.

Another participant was MSNBC anchor Alex Witt, an outspoken Trump critic.

Further, one of the key groups behind the effort is a nonprofit organization called Issue One. Issue One’s CEO participated in the war game and is also working across the country to develop better "election integrity” laws.

Although Issue One sells itself as "bipartisan,” it has directly opposed Trump on numerous occasions. Many of the Republicans affiliated with the group are openly opposed to Trump as well.

On its website, Issue One bragsthat it "helped lead the congressional push to establish a 9/11-style commission to investigate the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol.” It also lauds its Count Every Vote initiative, a "campaign to defend the integrity of the 2020 elections.”

Another key figure in the growing deepfake election network is Miles Taylor, an organizerof the March event. Taylor is a rabid opponent of Trump, one who has strong connections to the national security industry. Taylor served as the chief of staff at the Department of Homeland Security during the Trump administration. While still in that position, he anonymously published an infamous op-ed in theNew York Times titled, "I Am Part of the Resistance Inside the Trump Administration.”

In the Times article, Taylor painted a bleak picture of Trump and his motives, routinely hurling insults at his boss while hiding behind his anonymous byline.



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GOP Re-empowers the Left and Tramples the Constitution

Timothy Birdnow

The Republican-led House of Representatives just reauthorized the FISA law allowing our national security apparatus to spy on Americans - and to use it as a weapon against Americans speaking their minds.

We all remember the misuse of FISA during and after the election of 2016 by the FBI and CIA. They pursued President Trump with it for years, and the charges were all lies.

Now Biden has this weapon back in his arsenal. Don't be surprised if some new "blockbuster" doesn't appear as the FBI resumes spying on Mr. Trump and manufacturing fake news to utilize against him.

Time to declare the Speaker seat vacant again.

Mike Johnson is going to have to answer for this, if not in this life then in the next.

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VERY Long Term Interest Rate Trends

Timothy Birdnow

Here is an essay about long-term interest rates - very long term; going back to the 14th century.

The upshot of the argument is that interest rates have been slowly declining over the past eight hundred years and so we shouldn't be alarmed about the current interest rate rise under Joe Biden.

I think this is largely worthless, a case of comparing apples and oranges.

It should come as no surprise that interest rates have declined; Christianity forbade usury prior to the Renaissance and so much less money was available to buy. Jews and Muslims were the only lenders back then.

And also the explosion of the Europeans onto the world scene and colonization meant an explosion of debt, making interest rates cheaper based on high demand (banks became big deals and multiple banks opened to meet said demand.)

This is just another attempt to lull the public into the lethargy that has kept us mired in the same mindset for decades now. Everything is fine, nothing to see here!

FTA:

As the economist Maurice Obstfeld has pointed out, the result is that they look like mere "blips” from a long-term historical point of view.

To put it another way, modernity triggered an inexorable decline in the long-term price of money, and was doing this well before we started to fret about ultra-low rates in the 21st century.

Why? Previously economists have blamed this on issues such as productivity, demographics and capital flows. Ben Bernanke, former Fed governor, famously pointed to a savings glut in China and elsewhere, while Summers worries about an era of secular stagnation.

However, even more interesting (and counter-intuitive) is Rogoff et al’s failure to find a statistical correlation between real rates and fundamental economic trends. That might reflect the limitations of their data, but the trio offer another explanation. The real reason, they say, for falling borrowing costs is not economic shifts, but an issue economists often ignore — the nature of finance. A combination of modern capital markets, risk analysis and innovation around using collateral to back loans has made money more efficient.

Proving this is hard, but the idea rings true to me. Call this the "against the gods” effect, to cite Peter Bernstein’s seminal book of the same name. A key distinction between modern and premodern societies is that innovations ranging from double-entry book keeping to computers have left us believing that we can predict, manage and price future risks, without relying on gods, as our ancestors did.

In reality, this confidence is all too often misplaced. But justified or not, the cultural shift that accompanied it has made money more abundant and fluid, thus cutting its cost. This is good news.

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And No One Marched

Jim Church

Over 8,000 Christians were openly slaughtered by Muslims in Nigeria in 2023 but no one is maeching in the streets over that. Over 10,000 Yazidi women and girls were kidnapped, raped, tortured and forced to ‘marry’ ISIS Muslims and no one marched. Over 2700 are still being held. No one marches in the streets. The hypocrisy in the West is beyond belief. The world’s media pick and choose the winners…and as a result deservedly choose their own demise too.

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Terrorists in America

Diane Kimura

Home grown terrorists and more entering the US through Biden’s open borders. It is not if, but when will people die from a major terrorist attack?
May be an image of map and text

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April 12, 2024

Trans Chic

James Doogue

Celebrities Trans Kids Have Become Accessories To Demonstrate How Tolerant And Accepting The Celebs Are.

In this video Paul Joseph Watson provided a seemingly endless list of mainly female celebrities proudly strutting about with their transgender or non binary children. https://youtu.be/WNl-oTf-O70?si=jwPgIhRIxfYP1AgA

The short video is worth a watch, it is truly shocking.

Jordan Petersen points out the chances of one woman having three boys who are genuine transgender females is about 1 in 27 billion.

The fact that Megan Fox actually said that when she was pregnant, she 'felt' her son might be transgender might be a hint that parents are helping influence their children's gender dismorphia.

Through the ages, mostly women, have willingly done incredibly harmful things to their bodies to make themselves feel more appealing to men.

Chinese feet binding and deforming body corsets are just a couple of examples. Of course the 'patriarchy' are blamed for these activities which would only have been possible with the willing compliance of the girl's mother's.

In the 1960's models became tall and slim. The curvy looks of Marilyn Munroe were out, and gaunt boyish slim hip looks like Twiggy was seen more and more on the catwalk.

It didn't help that it was also the time when women's fashions became much more revealing from miniskirts to bikinis and sheer tight clothes. Every slight body bump became conspicuous.

In the 1970's 80's and 90's we'd see girls almost starve themselves to death to achieve what they thought was the ideal figure. Anorexia and bulimia became widely known conditions. It was discovered that these eating disorders belong to the broad category of self-harming behaviours which can be acquired in a social learning process of imitation, identification and competition.

It was recognised that group therapy could lead to worse outcomes for girls who shared their tricks and competitively resisted treatment. They found a level of infamy they hadn't experienced before and mobile phones and personal computers expanded their reach and competition.

Clearly the same contagion is happening with children and gender identity today, but on a much greater scale, and parents are joining in.

To make matters worse, many education departments and health services have adopted a positive affirmation approach. This means that any child who starts questioning their gender identity is told they might be transgender and is encouraged to explore that.

Parents can be excluded from the process. One day their son can come home and announce he is a girl and tell them he's already started transitioning at school.

If the parents object to the process or even if they refuse to refer to 'her' with the female name their son has chosen, they can be charged with a hate crime.

Some places around the world rush to administer puberty blockers and hormones straight away, so that the children will not develop the way their biological self would.

In one long term study of children who had gender dysphoria nearly 90% had 'grown out of it' in adulthood. They were happy with their biological gender.

'The latest follow-up study of boys experiencing gender dysphoria (Singh, Bradley, Zucker, 2021) shows the same result as the earlier studies:

"Of the 139 participants, 17 (12.2%) were classified as persisters and the remaining 122 (87.8%) were classified as desisters.”'

A cautionary tale for those who advocate irreversible treatments on children who question their gender.

Most children grow out of their gender dysphoria as they reach adolescence. Social transitions and/or puberty blockers are frequently used to ameliorate symptoms in these children. However, the long-term psychological impact of these therapeutic strategies on children is unknown. Therapeutic approaches for children with gender dysphoria are not evidence based and long-term outcome studies are urgently needed in this area.

What I really fail to understand is why we are supposed to accept the idea from a child, that they were born in the wrong body. A child is not able to give consent to sex. They can't own anything which requires a licence. They can't legally drink alcohol, but we're supposed to accept at face value they want to make life changing decisions about their body?

I hope this madness ends soon and we can look back on it and laugh at how idiotic those famous celebrities were.

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Dumbocracy

Robert Fenton Gary

Two things we know ---

1. Companies really want to make money.

2. No company is organized as a "democracy" --- they are all top-down command structures, like the Army, or Navy.

If democracy really worked so wonderfully well as a format to organize people for success, companies would use it.

It doesn't.

So, they don't.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 09:17 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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