July 26, 2020
Arguing with Idiots: Covid 19 Edition
Timothy Birdnow
Here is a thread that may be of interest to Aviary readers. James Doogue made this case:
Peter responded:
It is thought that up to 50% of cases in young people may be asymptomatic. As for locking down young folk .... just think about it for 10 seconds and it might just dawn on you.
I responded:
Peter, this is a ramble. How about you tell me precisely where you think I am wrong?
If things were getting out of control in the US, the ratio of positive cases to number of tests would be rising, as would the ratio of deaths to positive cases. The former is pretty static, the latter is falling.
Peter, you are so sure a lock-down was necessary you are keeping any evidence to the contrary from busting your bubble. You, and a daresay the bulk of our politicians and mainstream media need to do a bit more unbiased research.
Explain for instance why Taiwan has had so few cases and deaths without a lockdown.
See here:
The Lock-down wasn't necessary. Taiwan has a similar size population to Australia, and it is also an Island. Without a lock-down they have had just 455 cases and 7 deaths to date.
This article from April explains how they did it. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/taiwanese-authorities-stay-vigilant-virus-crisis-eases-n1188781
Here's the key points they:
- Started tracking arrivals from China as soon as they heard about the virus.
- Imposed travel restrictions just a few days before Australia.
- Demanded the mobile phones of incoming travellers, installed an app to ensure they stayed in Quarantine, with heavy penalties for not doing so.
- Provided special infection prevention services for arriving passengers to get them safely direct to their place of quarantine.
-Provided services for people quarantined.
- Initiated temperature testing, hand sanitising and mandatory masks where necessary. They acted early to stop the export of masks and to stop hoarding by consumers.
- Did not close schools and businesses. They remained open taking special precautions.
It's not rocket science. Instead, most of the world 'experts' and our media ignored this shining example because according to China, and therefore the United Nations and WHO, Taiwan doesn't exist. They are considered a renegade province of China.
Australia has spent hundreds of billions of dollars keeping people at home. We spent $70 million dollars on a contact tracing app which was voluntary and therefore useless.
All we had to do was spend a few hundred million dollars or so and implement Taiwan's approach along with penalties and enforcement for those who don't want to comply with the very basic measures compared to our lock-downs.
Why did our government only listen to the 'experts' who only listened to the WHO? We knew WHO was corrupt, well before our massive expenditures and lock-down.
Australia has trashed our economy and created a debt which will take 30 years to pay back, all unnecessarily.
Peter's retort:
Yes Trump defunded the WHO and there are many critical articles about the organization. It isn't about you being wrong it is about basic science.
No point responding to you as again over 1,000 deaths today in the US it is a futile exercise as nothing gets through to people who hold views such as yours. So it is best that you go your way I'll go mine.
I responded:
Then Peter please do go your way. There is no point in my wasting my breath on someone who is unwilling to listen to facts. It is a fact that Sweden's death rate has dropped to nearly zero. They are quite probably at herd immunity by NOT locking down. It is a fact that the U. S. death rates have dropped significantly. It is a fact that the same is true many other places. It is a fact that this disease is not very dangerous to children or healthy young people. It is a fact that this disease will continue until we reach herd immunity, which is being delayed (happily) until after the upcoming American elections. It is a fact that the media has been desperate to remove Donald Trump from office and with impeachment failing and their comatose candidate on ice there was a hail-mary pass needed, and one just fell out of the sky. It is a fact that China was playing with this virus and lying about how badly infected their country was, and the WHO helped them cover it up. It is a fact that death rates are nowhere nearly as bad as first predicted. It is a fact that the science does NOT support the panic and paranoia. But you won't admit that, will you? And why not? BTW James Doogue sorry my reply was so Americacentric;
Here is a thread that may be of interest to Aviary readers. James Doogue made this case:
We agreed to flatten the curve and stop hospitals being overwhelmed. When did the goal become not having any new infections no matter how mild?
By this time in the flu season we would normally have had over 400 deaths in Australia. We've had about 130 alleged Covid-19 related deaths so far. Do we lock down the economy every flu season?
Some people are saying but if we hadn't had the lockdown, there would have been thousands of deaths. But that's assuming a false dichotomy between a lockdown and doing nothing.
Isolating the old and the vulnerable in an efficient manner, dealing with the cruise ship passengers as if they were all infected, and having a better quarantine system such as the tracking employed overseas, would have saved more than 95% of the Covid-19 deaths we have had in Australia - at least from dying of Covid-19.
The only things we had to do to save almost all lives from dying from Covid-19 was:
- Lock-down the international borders until there is an efficient vaccine, or good quarantine and tracking system in place.
- Improve hygiene in terms of hands and surfaces, not going out if you have symptoms, and wearing a mask if you feel the need, where social distancing isn't practical.
- Assist the elderly and vulnerable to self isolate and be protected from the infected. Visitors and the elderly and vulnerable should wear masks when together. Even in the same household.
Locking down and restricting young, healthy people trashed our economy and society for the sake of saving people getting mild to no symptoms if they caught Covid-19.
Normally at this time at least 1 in 40 (2.5%) of the population would be suffering cold and flu like symptoms every day. Almost half the population would have suffered cold or flu symptoms by the end of the flu season.
That's millions infected, 1,500 to 3,000 deaths, about 18,000 hospitalisation
Our government, the media, and most of the public in Australia and around the world were panicked into unnecessary drastic action and nobody wants to admit that.
So now they've changed the goal from flattening the infection curve to limit pressure on the health services, to now stopping all infections.
On that basis, we will never be able to fully open the economy, unless we admit that is an unnecessary goal, or until we have an efficient vaccine.
There's always someone who has all the answers... and you're it!
For a start do you really mean dichotomy?
Comparing this virus to the flu is simply not scientifically or epidemiological
For a start do you really mean dichotomy?
Comparing this virus to the flu is simply not scientifically or epidemiological
It is thought that up to 50% of cases in young people may be asymptomatic. As for locking down young folk .... just think about it for 10 seconds and it might just dawn on you.
I responded:
Peter LaMay's stats all come from the
WHO or the CDC, both of which have been proven to be suspect. In fact,
we have NO IDEA of the infectivity as we don't know who is infected;
until recently we were only testing those who were sick, and even now
we have a lot of suspect data with that (people who didn't get tested
are receiving reports saying they are positive, for instance.) The
arrogance of people like Peter Lamay is astonishing because he and the
rest of the panic-stricken assure us of how much they know when so much
of it just isn't so.
Considering the Wuhan guidelines handed out call for anyone dying with Covid to be listed as a Covid death the data are quite skewed on the death rate. I quote the guidelines from the CDC:
"In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID cannot be made but is suspected or likely (e.g.the circumstances are compelling with a reasonable degree of certainty) it is acceptable to report COVID-19 on a death certificate as 'probable' or 'presumed.'" End quote.
As a result, we don't know the death rate. We also don't know the infectivity. And as for Peter LaMay's last assertion:
"It is thought that up to 50% of cases in young people may be asymptomatic"
That means this disease is far less dangerous than the numbers he cited; we have a lot of people with it who never knew it and haven't been tested. Drops the mortality rate down, and likely the R nought too.
Oh, and Wuhan is largely non-infective from children. https://www.uvm.edu/uvmnews/news/kids-rarely-transmit-covid-19-say-uvm-docs-top-journal And kids are unlikely to die from it.
https://medium.com/m/global-identity?redirectUrl=https%3A%2F%2Ffreopp.org%2Festimating-the-risk-of-death-from-covid-19-vs-influenza-or-pneumonia-by-age-630aea3ae5a9
They state:
"Under our assumptions, for example, school-aged children between 5 and 14 have a 1 in 200,000 chance of dying of influenza, but a 1 in 2.5 million chance of dying of COVID-19. For toddlers, the relative risk is even more pronounced. We estimate that Americans between ages 1–4 are 20 times more likely to die of influenza than of COVID-19."
So his last assertion is invalid.
By the way, we WANT young people to get this; they will get over it and help lead us to herd immunity, something the much maligned Sweden has likely achieved by not locking down. https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-coronavirus-cases-deaths-fall-not-mean-lockdown-plan-worked-2020-7
This issue has been horribly muddied by desperate political machinations, largely designed to advance Progressive social causes and remove Donald Trump.
Peter didn't like that and he shot back:Considering the Wuhan guidelines handed out call for anyone dying with Covid to be listed as a Covid death the data are quite skewed on the death rate. I quote the guidelines from the CDC:
"In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID cannot be made but is suspected or likely (e.g.the circumstances are compelling with a reasonable degree of certainty) it is acceptable to report COVID-19 on a death certificate as 'probable' or 'presumed.'" End quote.
As a result, we don't know the death rate. We also don't know the infectivity. And as for Peter LaMay's last assertion:
"It is thought that up to 50% of cases in young people may be asymptomatic"
That means this disease is far less dangerous than the numbers he cited; we have a lot of people with it who never knew it and haven't been tested. Drops the mortality rate down, and likely the R nought too.
Oh, and Wuhan is largely non-infective from children. https://www.uvm.edu/uvmnews/news/kids-rarely-transmit-covid-19-say-uvm-docs-top-journal And kids are unlikely to die from it.
https://medium.com/m/global-identity?redirectUrl=https%3A%2F%2Ffreopp.org%2Festimating-the-risk-of-death-from-covid-19-vs-influenza-or-pneumonia-by-age-630aea3ae5a9
They state:
"Under our assumptions, for example, school-aged children between 5 and 14 have a 1 in 200,000 chance of dying of influenza, but a 1 in 2.5 million chance of dying of COVID-19. For toddlers, the relative risk is even more pronounced. We estimate that Americans between ages 1–4 are 20 times more likely to die of influenza than of COVID-19."
So his last assertion is invalid.
By the way, we WANT young people to get this; they will get over it and help lead us to herd immunity, something the much maligned Sweden has likely achieved by not locking down. https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-coronavirus-cases-deaths-fall-not-mean-lockdown-plan-worked-2020-7
This issue has been horribly muddied by desperate political machinations, largely designed to advance Progressive social causes and remove Donald Trump.
Timothy ... who proves the WHO and CDC 'suspect'?
And btw you expect to be credible when you can't manage to correctly spell my name.
It isn't easy to get to the facts but just as clearly it isn't some global conspiracy.
If your arguments were correct then action taken in key states in the US would be doing fine .... where the ill- informed have acted as you suggest death rates have risen dramatically.
You are out to prove something but I'm not. My interest is solely in understanding this disease and why countries have done what they have done. The original post was about young people not children.
Anyway you are convinced of something but it is not clear what that it while it obviously includes a belief that most of the world has got it completely wrong and you are right. Beyond that it is not clear what you are trying to achieve.
And my reply:And btw you expect to be credible when you can't manage to correctly spell my name.
It isn't easy to get to the facts but just as clearly it isn't some global conspiracy.
If your arguments were correct then action taken in key states in the US would be doing fine .... where the ill- informed have acted as you suggest death rates have risen dramatically.
You are out to prove something but I'm not. My interest is solely in understanding this disease and why countries have done what they have done. The original post was about young people not children.
Anyway you are convinced of something but it is not clear what that it while it obviously includes a belief that most of the world has got it completely wrong and you are right. Beyond that it is not clear what you are trying to achieve.
"where the ill- informed have acted as
you suggest death rates have risen dramatically. " No they are not. In
fact, the U.S. is at the point where we are largely nearly out of an
epidemic, Peter LeMay. (BTW, I apologize for misspelling your name. I
am vision impaired and sometimes miss typos.) Covid CASES have been
rising while the actual number of deaths has been in decline. Oh, and
why is it that California is seeing a big rise? In fact, most of the
states hardest hit with Covid were blue, Democratic controled states
that instituted strict quarantine and social distancing policies.
Explain that please. IF what you say is true then those states should
be doing better than everyone else. They aren't. OF COURSE you are
going to see a spike in cases now as testing has ramped up and and much
of the country has been exposed to the virus by now.As for the data
problems, the World Health Organization has been in bed with Communist
China and has been a willing accomplice. Their data has been bad since
this thing ramped up. See
https://www.foxnews.com/world/world-health-organization-coronavirus-what-went-wrong
and if you don't like Fox try The Atlantic, a liberal publication.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/04/world-health-organization-blame-pandemic-coronavirus/609820/
As for the CDC, they are the ones who issued the guidelines telling
doctors to list COVID as cause of death even if someone was hit by a
car if they tested positive. That right there disqualifies them from
serious consideration; they clearly have a vested interest in upping
the numbers.Again the Atlantic
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/cdc-and-states-are-misreporting-covid-19-test-data-pennsylvania-georgia-texas/611935/
and
https://www.businessinsider.com/why-the-cdc-coronavirus-data-is-so-bad-2020-5
It's fairly clear there is a desire to promote alarmism where this
disease is concerned. We have NEVER reacted this way to a pandemic
before (and there were ones in 1957 and '68 that, adjusted for the
population, were as bad or worse than the current Wuhan virus in the
U.S.). Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. We didn't get
that. This whole thing was set in motion by a computer model from a
researcher - Nial Ferguson - at London's Imperial College. He himself
has even admitted he was wrong. His model has been disproven.
https://www.heritage.org/public-health/commentary/failures-influential-covid-19-model-used-justify-lockdowns
What am I trying to achieve? I'm trying to get the truth out and
restore sanity. We are going to kill millions of people with our
response and profoundly change our society. Freedoms are being lost.
Revolution is stirring. And all because of bad data, lies, power grabs,
and stupidity. The world is moving forward in blind panic, using scary
scenarios and bad data. And it's not even "the world" but rather the
media and key government-funded scientific organizations. There are
plenty of scientists who think this is insane; I'm friends on Facebook
with many of them. But they aren't the ones the media will quote
because they urge restraint. How many tinpot dictators have been newly
minted as a result of this? J.B. Pritzker, Andrew Cuomoo, etc. And,
frankly, I didn't like your attitude with James, which is why I jumped
in. YOU brought up children, I might add, which is why I refuted it.
YOU clearly have an agenda.
James Doogue adds:Peter, this is a ramble. How about you tell me precisely where you think I am wrong?
If things were getting out of control in the US, the ratio of positive cases to number of tests would be rising, as would the ratio of deaths to positive cases. The former is pretty static, the latter is falling.
Peter, you are so sure a lock-down was necessary you are keeping any evidence to the contrary from busting your bubble. You, and a daresay the bulk of our politicians and mainstream media need to do a bit more unbiased research.
Explain for instance why Taiwan has had so few cases and deaths without a lockdown.
See here:
The Lock-down wasn't necessary. Taiwan has a similar size population to Australia, and it is also an Island. Without a lock-down they have had just 455 cases and 7 deaths to date.
This article from April explains how they did it. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/taiwanese-authorities-stay-vigilant-virus-crisis-eases-n1188781
Here's the key points they:
- Started tracking arrivals from China as soon as they heard about the virus.
- Imposed travel restrictions just a few days before Australia.
- Demanded the mobile phones of incoming travellers, installed an app to ensure they stayed in Quarantine, with heavy penalties for not doing so.
- Provided special infection prevention services for arriving passengers to get them safely direct to their place of quarantine.
-Provided services for people quarantined.
- Initiated temperature testing, hand sanitising and mandatory masks where necessary. They acted early to stop the export of masks and to stop hoarding by consumers.
- Did not close schools and businesses. They remained open taking special precautions.
It's not rocket science. Instead, most of the world 'experts' and our media ignored this shining example because according to China, and therefore the United Nations and WHO, Taiwan doesn't exist. They are considered a renegade province of China.
Australia has spent hundreds of billions of dollars keeping people at home. We spent $70 million dollars on a contact tracing app which was voluntary and therefore useless.
All we had to do was spend a few hundred million dollars or so and implement Taiwan's approach along with penalties and enforcement for those who don't want to comply with the very basic measures compared to our lock-downs.
Why did our government only listen to the 'experts' who only listened to the WHO? We knew WHO was corrupt, well before our massive expenditures and lock-down.
Australia has trashed our economy and created a debt which will take 30 years to pay back, all unnecessarily.
Peter's retort:
Yes Trump defunded the WHO and there are many critical articles about the organization. It isn't about you being wrong it is about basic science.
No point responding to you as again over 1,000 deaths today in the US it is a futile exercise as nothing gets through to people who hold views such as yours. So it is best that you go your way I'll go mine.
I responded:
Then Peter please do go your way. There is no point in my wasting my breath on someone who is unwilling to listen to facts. It is a fact that Sweden's death rate has dropped to nearly zero. They are quite probably at herd immunity by NOT locking down. It is a fact that the U. S. death rates have dropped significantly. It is a fact that the same is true many other places. It is a fact that this disease is not very dangerous to children or healthy young people. It is a fact that this disease will continue until we reach herd immunity, which is being delayed (happily) until after the upcoming American elections. It is a fact that the media has been desperate to remove Donald Trump from office and with impeachment failing and their comatose candidate on ice there was a hail-mary pass needed, and one just fell out of the sky. It is a fact that China was playing with this virus and lying about how badly infected their country was, and the WHO helped them cover it up. It is a fact that death rates are nowhere nearly as bad as first predicted. It is a fact that the science does NOT support the panic and paranoia. But you won't admit that, will you? And why not? BTW James Doogue sorry my reply was so Americacentric;
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at
07:37 AM
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1
First, comparing the Corona virus to annual flu is rather useless, because annual flu is not a Corona type virus. Annual flu subsides in summer because it cannot tolerate heat and humidity and, clearly, Corona virus does not share that quality.
The point, however, that we have switched from "flattening the curve†to "stopping the virus†is valid, as is the assertion that we are no longer trying to prevent death but are trying to prevent illness. Both of the current goals are utterly ridiculous.
The assertion, however, that allowing the disease to spread in order to achieve "herd immunity†is a shaky one. There are claims that having the disease does not confer immunity, or that it does so only for a short time. Those assertions have been denied but not really disproved. They are probably untrue, but as long as they are possible then "herd immunity†is an unreliable goal, and a all this talk of vaccine is hot air.
Basically we know pretty much nothing about this disease, and the reason for that is because it is being used as a political tool to spread fear for the purpose of distracting the voting population from the upcoming disaster in November.
It will be a disaster no matter who wins, because at this point neither side (and I’m not talking about the candidates) are totally unwilling to accept defeat. That condition will worsen over the next three months.
The point, however, that we have switched from "flattening the curve†to "stopping the virus†is valid, as is the assertion that we are no longer trying to prevent death but are trying to prevent illness. Both of the current goals are utterly ridiculous.
The assertion, however, that allowing the disease to spread in order to achieve "herd immunity†is a shaky one. There are claims that having the disease does not confer immunity, or that it does so only for a short time. Those assertions have been denied but not really disproved. They are probably untrue, but as long as they are possible then "herd immunity†is an unreliable goal, and a all this talk of vaccine is hot air.
Basically we know pretty much nothing about this disease, and the reason for that is because it is being used as a political tool to spread fear for the purpose of distracting the voting population from the upcoming disaster in November.
It will be a disaster no matter who wins, because at this point neither side (and I’m not talking about the candidates) are totally unwilling to accept defeat. That condition will worsen over the next three months.
Posted by: Bill H at July 26, 2020 09:21 AM (vMiSr)
2
I should have said, of course, that both sides (again, not candidates) are totally unwilling to accept defeat.
Posted by: Bill H at July 26, 2020 09:24 AM (vMiSr)
3
Bill, I agree with everything but the argument against herd immunity. Clearly that is happening in places as the death rates have dropped in almost all countries. If it does come back there isn't a lot we can do about it. But what are our alternatives? We can't stay shut down forever, and we can't wait for a vaccine which may never come. Going for herd immunity is the only option we have.
Have you had a return of Covid? Just curious.
Have you had a return of Covid? Just curious.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at July 27, 2020 06:34 AM (eruun)
4
Oh, I agree entirely that we should return to living life as normal. This cowering under our beds in constant fear is, at best, unseemly. It's what wildlife does because it cannot do otherwise. We are supposed to have a thinking brain. Sometimes I think we have evolved back to our animal state, in which if you can't bite it hide from it.
I'm just saying that to argue for herd immunity while saying that having had the disease and recovered you must still wear a mask because you may not be immune is nonsensical.
I'm just saying that to argue for herd immunity while saying that having had the disease and recovered you must still wear a mask because you may not be immune is nonsensical.
Posted by: Bill H at July 27, 2020 07:58 AM (vMiSr)
5
Amen to that Bill. Wearing a mask is nonsensical at any time in my opinion, but especially if you have recovered from the Wu. This whole thing is being driven by the Left's lust for power and their quickness to grab onto anything that can provide that.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at July 29, 2020 06:37 AM (wONHK)
6
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