Timothy Birdnow

I hate to say I told you so, but I told you so.

I warned at the beginning of this Ukrainian conflict that this was going to create a whole generation of hardened thugs. I have been proven right with this insurrection by the Wagner group (so named after Wagner, the German composer.) 

Wagner is battle hardened by conflicts all over the world, but especially in the eastern Ukraine. Now they are trying to seize control of Russia itself.

This was fairly inevitable.

I suspect the U.S. has a hand in this too. I wonder if we didn't promise Prigozhin not only no opposition if he tried to take out Putin but perhaps even covert support.

No way to prove such a thing now, but it is my guess.

Prigozhen is a rather shadowy character who rose very high very quickly after spending 12 years in prison for robbery. He got out, started a hot-dog stand, and then became a top restaurateur  and caterer - owning another non-Russian named company (Concord). If I were of a suspicious mind I would think the non-Russian names meant something - ahem!

At any rate, he rose very high fairly quickly and wound up with his own private army. Oh, and he denied having anything to do with the Wagner Group for years. He also denied heading a hacker organization (which was named in the Mueller probe, along with his indictment.)

There is a slim chance the man was a CIA plant all along. I doubt it. But he might have been turned by them. I find it hard to swallow that he got the idea of taking out Putin on his own, even though he has a lot to gain from it.

The thing about this is that this is a very, very dangerous game we are playing now. Like it or not Putin isn't going to just roll over for this. And he has the aid of the Iranians, and no doubt others will come to his aid.

If Putin has intelligence suggesting CIA involvement here I imagine he'll retaliate in a most unpleasant fashion Probably try to assassinate Biden at minimum.

I really doubt Wagner can take out Putin. Putin has vast resources at his disposal, and he's still popular enough that the public won't join with Wagner. Without a popular uprising Prigozhin cannot possibly take and hold enough territory. Putin can.

And Putin can always order something really nasty. Like a tactical nuke on his troops in Rostov or elsewhere, or biological weapons, or whatnot.

I find this most interesting as the Ukrainian offensive against Russia pretty much petered out. But the Ukrainian government says their "biggest blow is yet to come". https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/20/ukraine-says-biggest-blow-yet-to-come-in-counteroffensive-push Right at this moment when Wagner invades Russia. The timing is entirely too convenient.

I expect there to be a big push into the Dunbass now that Wagner has vacated. Surprise, surprise!

And this will have all sorts of repercussions, be they a stoppage in the flow of oil and gas (which again just happily dovetails with Western green energy ambitions), to further restrictions in fertilizer (hurting agricultural production and thus killing poor people), etc. And if it takes Putin out there are worse guys waiting in the wings. Shoot; Prigozhin himself is worse than Putin.

And if Putin retaliates over this? If he believes the West had anything to do with it?

We are closer to nuclear war now than at any time since the Cold War, and possibly since the Cuban Missile Crisis. And we have a senile geriatric who never did have more than half a brain asleep at the wheel.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 01:48 PM | Comments (3) | Add Comment
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