John Lees

This is from the Hoover Institution. It's a woman giving a detailed analysis of the logic behind Putin's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Towards the end at 1hr 05min 20 sec, she describes how the exit of Angela Merkel was seen as an opportunity. As if the woman who had presided over the Nordstream gas deals and, shut down Germany's nuclear energy program, banned German enhanced gas development and committed to dependency on Russian controlled gas imports, THAT MERKEL - was keeping Putin at bay.
AND THEN - she claims that Putin saw the rise of Donald Trump as an opportunity, because "if he could get away with Crimea under Trump..."
FFS... you total dimwit!! Putin took control of Crimea when Obama was in office. Not Trump!!!
These beautiful spoken international affairs "experts" seem to invariably turn out to be uttterly clueless buffoons.
Merkel was the friend of Putin and his plans.
Obama did basically nothing in response to the Russian taking of Crimea, and nor did Merkel.
Then Trump came along and was widely lambasted for telling Merkel to get herself away from dependency on Russian energy and to make a serious commitment to German military spending and NATO contributions.
But, in the world of geopolitical experts, the simple facts can be turned completely upside down.
Even when that past is thoroughly documented and only 5 or 6 years ago.

Tim adds:

If Trump was such a golden opportunity for Putin why didn't he attack when Trump was still in office. It would have been really easy to attack after the election in 2020 when Trump was fighting for his political life and the window of opportunity open. But he waited until well after Biden was in office.

These "experts" don't know what they are talking about most of the time.

Biden greenlighted the Nordstream II after Trump stopped it for years. Couple that with Biden's disaster in Afghanistan and it was clear there was a patsy in the White House.

And Biden's Green fantasies led to a massive rise in oil and gas prices which in turn gave Putin the money he needed to do this. Low gas prices under Trump held the Russians at bay.

I would add NATO has deployed Aegis missile defense systems in Poland. https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/2849023/aegis-ashore-in-poland-on-target-for-2022/ and that the U.S. has been deploying all manner of missile defense systems right along the Russian border. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/352-missile-defenses-eastern-europe-who-threatens-whom Ukraine would undoubtedly be the next candidate for an ABM system if the chance presents itself.

It very much is about Ukraine and NATO. Up to this point Ukraine was luke-warm about joining, and NATO luke-warm about having them. But the annexation of Crimea changed that. Putin had to strike now or face a possible NATO membership in just a few years.

But these "experts" don't seem to grasp that.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 11:32 AM | Comments (1) | Add Comment
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