March 24, 2022
There's more here: https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2022/03/24/heres-why-russian-forces-cant-take-the-ukrainian-capital-of-kyiv-n2604965When the Conservative Political Action Committee kicked off in late February, so did Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It seemed by the time the conference ended; Russian troops would be in firm command of the country. The Ukrainian capital of Kyiv was projected to fall within days of the invasion. Retired Gen. Jack Keane, a regular on Fox News, did say that the Ukrainians will mount a solid defense, but they will eventually be overrun by Russian troops. Not the case. We underestimated the Ukrainians' ability to stand their ground. We overestimated the Russian military’s supposed prowess. What happened? It seems that things have atrophied.
Russian armored tactics used to be excellent. Russian tanks are not usually blown to bits in the numbers like we’re seeing in Ukraine. To add more humiliation to Moscow’s supposed military might, armored columns have run out of gas. Everything is stalled except in the city of Mariupol which is besieged and engulfed in classic urban house-to-house fighting right now. Despite no food, water, or electricity, the Ukrainian defenders are not surrendering. Elsewhere, Russian forces are truly stuck in the mud.
Will the capital fall? As of now, no—the Russians don’t have the men or materials to capture the capital. Vladimir Putin is reportedly pressuring Belarus’ Alexander Lukashenko, but he is reluctant to deploy forces into the country. The first phase of this war is over, and Russia failed.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at
10:52 PM
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The Ukraine is also pretty big from a European perspective, being slightly larger than France.
Western Ukraine had been part of the Hapsburg Empire and so is far more Westernized than the other former Soviet Republics.
And it has many resources that most other countries do not. Food is plentiful, for instance, so starving them out is difficult.
AND they have had considerable technical and military support from the West.
So I guess Putin underestimated them. So did I.
The longer this drags out the harder it will be for Russia to continue; it's costing them huge amounts of money.
But, if Putin is facing a disastrous pullout he will have no choice but to take an act of desperation.
I will say this, no matter if Putin remains in power or not, the Russians will not make the mistake of overestimating their own forces again. They will work dilligently to improve their military, I see no way around a new cold war.
And they will no doubt try to assert their power again somewhere else. They hold grudges.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at March 25, 2022 09:00 AM (Dzyvy)
Posted by: Dana Mathewson at March 25, 2022 10:29 PM (551jX)
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at March 26, 2022 06:55 AM (7WPTi)
Hitler, a johnnie come lately tyrant, had much the same problem. He fired any general in the Wehrmacht who didn't approve of HIS plans and the result was eventually the Allies out-generaled the Germans.
But with Putin it's worse because he has real fears of a coup against him. The Wehrmacht never would have done that, what with the Prussian traditions.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at March 26, 2022 07:01 AM (7WPTi)
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