July 20, 2022
Is China's debt bomb about to explode? One analyst thinks so.
From Nikkei Asia:
OPINION | MINXIN PEI
One of the reasons that China has avoided a financial crisis is that its economy managed to grow at a reasonably high rate.
But as the Chinese economy is slowing down rapidly, the debt bomb is ticking much louder.
In a strange way (accidental, I am sure) Biden is doing the country a service by strangling China's economy. He's doing it by strangling our own, granted...
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at
09:41 AM
| Comments (30)
| Add Comment
Post contains 139 words, total size 1 kb.
Posted by: Dana Mathewson at July 20, 2022 09:43 PM (l1227)
Posted by: Bill H at July 20, 2022 11:13 PM (Q7br2)
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at July 21, 2022 07:12 AM (EGtRq)
There are a lot of warning signs for China's deteriorating economic conditions. They had a real estate crash, and that isn't even done yet. And they trade primarily with the U.S., and without foreign trade their economy - which is not diverse enough to sustain them - will fail.
You have to remember this is still a communist country, and like all communist countries the government controls most aspects of the economy. It's a fascist economy now, but the corporations are all government owned or owned by Party members. This sort of economy cannot last for any great length of time.
They have primarily done well because the U.S. kowtowed to them for the cheap manufacturing goods, and we stopped manufacturing in the U.S. If we find another supplies (say, India, or Brazil) the Chinese will have nowhere to go. We import $450 billion in goods and services from China annually as of 2021. We exported $164.9 billion. You can see that it would hurt China much more to lose our business than for us to lose theirs.https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/china-mongolia-taiwan/peoples-republic-china
China's debt is 250 times GDP. http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/CHINA-DEBT-HOUSEHOLD/010030H712Q/index.html#:~:text=How%20bad%20is%20it%3F%20China%E2%80%99s%20debt%20is%20more,leads%20to%20a%20financial%20bust%20and%20economic%20slump.Whether that is internal or not no longer matters at that point.
And China's foreign debt stands at $2.4 trillion. ?https://financeband.com/how-much-does-china-owe-to-us That is not exactly small potatoes. The U.S. owes $4.45 trillion, and we consider ourselves in horrendous debt.
So China owes about half as much as do we in foreign debt. But China's GDP is 8.36 trillion compared to $15.68 trillion for the U.S. https://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/compare/China/United-States/Economy#:~:text=Definitions%20%20%20%20STAT%20%20%20,more%20than%20...%20%2016%20more%20rowsSo their GDP is about half of ours - and their foreign debt is about half of ours. They are in the same boat as are we - but with a lot more hungry mouths to feed.
And while they have an estimated 25 billion barrels of oil in reserve, how long would that last in an industrializing economy?The U.S. has an estimated 264 billioon - over ten times the Chinese reserves.
In the end China MUST trade or collapse. The U.S. could get by with less trade.
For instance, between 2003 and 2017 Chinese imports of food grew from $14 billion to $104.6 billion. Their exports grew from $20.2 billion to $59.6 billion. So China imports more than twice what it exports in terms of food. That is an achilles heel. https://chinapower.csis.org/china-food-security/#:~:text=China%20has%20become%20increasingly%20reliant%20on%20imports%20to,increasingly%20finds%20itself%20running%20a%20food%20trade%20deficit.
The Chinese are increasingly buying U.S. energy sector exports. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=36632
I'm not the only one saying the Chinese economy is in trouble. It is coming from numerous sources on both sides of the aisle. See https://www.barrons.com/articles/chinas-economy-is-in-trouble-the-ripples-will-hit-the-fed-51655148051 abd https://nationalinterest.org/feature/gordon-chang-chinas-economy-deep-trouble-158011 and https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/05/the-chinese-economy-is-in-a-death-spiral/ and https://www.wsj.com/articles/slow-meltdown-of-china-economy-evergrande-property-market-collapse-downturn-xi-cewc-11640032283#:~:text=%20China%20is%20experiencing%20a%20slow-motion%20economic%20crisis,up%20to%20the%20task%20of%20managing%20the%20crisis.
And remember Bill, the Chinese aren't known for giving out accurate information when it paints them in a bad light; things are probably far worse than they are telling us.
I said I believe China is a paper tiger largely created by the West's Ruling Class to act as the manufacturing center for a New World Order and to promote profits in investment and act as a counterbalance to American hegemony, and I stick by that claim. If we stop coddling them they will eventually fall.
Oh, did you know that last year we STILL provided foreign aid to China? $28.3 million last year. (Trump had cut that number down from $62 million, but why he didn't cut it entirely is mystifying.)
If China is such an economic powerhouse why does it need U.S. foreign aid?
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at July 21, 2022 08:07 AM (EGtRq)
Posted by: woham at September 08, 2022 04:02 AM (Nknwh)
Posted by: woham at September 11, 2022 04:29 AM (q0LfN)
Posted by: peter654 at September 12, 2022 05:10 AM (COuH4)
Posted by: ALIX at September 12, 2022 07:30 AM (COuH4)
Posted by: ALIX at September 14, 2022 06:17 AM (s+5Ae)
Dubai Ratan Matka
Posted by: Kanpur Matka at September 21, 2022 02:32 AM (zm4ix)
Posted by: ALIX at September 24, 2022 05:43 AM (g+HYt)
Posted by: payewi6648 at September 29, 2022 01:46 AM (BqrEm)
Posted by: vihiy at October 03, 2022 04:49 AM (6MN8O)
Posted by: ponah ponah at November 01, 2022 01:23 AM (WOq34)
The cell phone swap search products in addition to services manufactured a method at what time is definitely technically state-of-the-art however trouble-free since well in view of the fact that absolutely fast with the aim of achieve splurge of.auto classic used cars
Posted by: vfdgdf at November 14, 2022 09:51 AM (BzdIU)
Posted by: vfdgdf at November 14, 2022 10:41 AM (BzdIU)
Posted by: ALIX at November 17, 2022 03:26 AM (BzdIU)
Posted by: shazain ansari at November 17, 2022 05:55 AM (BzdIU)
Posted by: vfdgdf at November 19, 2022 07:21 AM (BzdIU)
Posted by: shazain ansari at November 21, 2022 01:33 AM (m4O6P)
Posted by: ponah ponah at November 24, 2022 12:35 AM (eZ9hJ)
Posted by: ALIX at December 01, 2022 10:50 AM (Y+Q+r)
Posted by: at December 08, 2022 07:29 AM (gZwVo)
Posted by: at December 27, 2022 01:57 AM (vqxei)
Posted by: at December 27, 2022 02:01 AM (vqxei)
Posted by: at December 31, 2022 12:46 AM (vqxei)
Posted by: at December 31, 2022 05:29 AM (vqxei)
Posted by: at December 31, 2022 05:49 AM (vqxei)
Posted by: at February 02, 2023 06:06 AM (s87aM)
Posted by: Fake Watches at June 23, 2023 02:09 AM (0b23z)
37 queries taking 5.1125 seconds, 189 records returned.
Powered by Minx 1.1.6c-pink.