Timothy Birdnow

Contributor Bill and I had a good conversation about the prospects of China, and contributor Steven Schueler chimed in to me privately.

Steve replies:

China's working age population is shrinking now. China’s working-age population peaked in 2014 and is projected to shrink to less than one third of that peak by 2100.

https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/china-population-to-shrink-for-1st-time-in-60-yrs-what-it-means-for-world-122053000429_1.html

The debt 'bomb' is caused in great part by the Chinese property bubble being propped by shoddy construction with a pretty facade. By the time 2 years has passed, the buildings begin falling apart, investors sell at the inflated price, buy new similar shoddy buildings, rinse and repeat. In 5 years the first round of buildings is approaching valueless, and the businesses and tenants are moving on to new flashy digs with same inherent basic flaws.

Tim adds:

Good points Steven Schueler! Years ago I was in a discussion with some young conservatives about the One Child policy and I half-jokingly pointed out that China was going to be a nation of only children and boys, and that a sex-maddened population would go to war to find brides for themselves. It looks like I wasn't far off on that! The One Child policy clearly is at the core of the Chinese economic woes. They are seeing a drop in population (as planned) but now nobody can cover their debt. Depopulation does that. In Europe they are importing Middle Easterners to fill the gap left from fewer taxpayers paying for the heavy social programs, and China won't do the same because then they would no longer be Chinese. So they are in a huge catch 22. Your point about the shoddy workmanship making real estate lose value is a great point, one I'd not thought of. I am convinced China will fade over the next fifty years. Sadly, so will we. Who will take over is anybody's guess at the moment. Eastern Europe? India? Brazil (nah.)

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 09:46 AM | Comments (7) | Add Comment
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