April 15, 2021

The Low Probability Pandemic

This from E. Calvin Beisner

The following text between < and > is a quote:

<Similarly, the CDC’s current best estimates for the C-19 [infection] fatality rate are:

0.003% for people aged 0–19 years.
0.02% for people aged 20–49 years.
0.5% for people aged 50–69 years.
5.4% for people aged 70+ years.>

My comments:

The quote is from https:// www.justfacts.co m/ news_covid-19_es sential_facts?f bclid=IwAR2cTBo ppdByKBPL89R_-8 0VUi0lXloVnM8LX 9K6hV-171CH8sm1 xV-jbyI, updated April 9, 2021, which cites https:// www.cdc.gov/ coronavirus/ 2019-ncov/hcp/ planning-scenari os.html, dated March 19, 2021.

I.e.,

of 10,000 people aged 0–19 years infected, 9,999.7 will survive;
of 10,000 aged 20–49 years infected, 9,998 will survive;
of 10,000 aged 50–69 years infected, 9,950 will survive;
of 10,000 aged 70+ years infected, 9,460 will survive.

My wife and I are among the 9,950 out of every 10,000 aged 50–69 who have been infected and survived. We thank God. But we consider ourselves the rule, not the exception.

And we continue to believe the lockdowns and mandatory mask orders are an irrational, badly exaggerated response to the pandemic, a response that will cause far more harm than good. Want do understand why? Begin by reading the first source listed above.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 05:18 AM | Comments (7) | Add Comment
Post contains 199 words, total size 3 kb.

1 My cardiologist was trying to persuade me to get the vaccine, notwithstanding that I have had the disease and recovered from it. He tried the "we don’t know how long immunity lasts” thing. I told him, "Don’t piss in my ear and tell me it’s raining,” and asked him how many people who have had the disease have gotten it a second time.

He did not, of course, answer the question (the answer is zero) but admitted my chances of becoming ill from the virus were "less than one percent.” Indeed they are. A lot less.

He asked if I’d had anyone I knew die from the disease (I have not) and said that if I had I might feel differently about getting vaccinated. I told him I’m not part of the "everything is about me” generation, and that having someone close to me die would cause me to be praying for the soul of the person who left this world, not for myself.

He said he guessed I would not be getting vaccinated, and I told him he was right.

Posted by: Bill H at April 15, 2021 08:18 AM (/sW5m)

2 What possible value is there in you getting vaccinated Bill? That is just crazy.

I don't know anyone who died of it but I know people who were close to people who did. But that doesn't change anything; the vaccine isn't all that useful from what we are learning anyway, so what value is there in getting it? might get it come summer. Maybe. I refuse to be a drug trial participant out of fear of a disease that affects so very few people.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at April 16, 2021 06:35 AM (ztiAl)

3 A news report cited some public health wonk, purportedly a doctor, as saying that immunity conferred by the vaccine "should last for about 209 days.”

The juxtaposition of "about” and "209 days” rendered that statement idiotic all by itself, but what basis could he possibly have for the conclusion? The first test of the vaccine was begun less than 209 days ago.

Another claimed that the vaccine shows "near 100% effectiveness” on teenage children. This statement was made less than a month after the vaccinations were first administered to teenagers.

It might be a valid conclusion if the teenagers were then injected with the live virus, but we know that didn’t happen. Short of that it is sheer idiocy because we don’t know that the children were even exposed to the virus (in a one month period).

Case three is the widespread admonishment that we may need a "booster vaccination” after one year as immunity wanes after the original vaccination.

Right, just like we need an annual "booster vaccination” for Smallpox.

Posted by: Bill H at April 16, 2021 08:25 AM (/sW5m)

4 That's just crazy Bill. But then it's what we've come to expect with partisan "science". They are spitting in the dark here, pulling numbers out of their posteriors.

How much will the drug companies make from every one of those shots? This is a pharmaceutical company's wet dream; make every person on Earth get vaccinated and re-vaccinated and re-vaccinated forever!  That's some big money there.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at April 17, 2021 06:31 AM (Gi4au)

5 My wife and I have a friend who is the choreographer of the school musical my wife is accompanying. She had COVID awhile back. Then somebody convinced her to get the vaccination, and after the first shot she was sicker than when she had the disease. Once you've had the darn thing, do NOT get the shot(s)!

Posted by: Dana Mathewson at April 18, 2021 02:51 PM (BZtI0)

Posted by: william hill tv at April 18, 2021 02:53 PM (/Arft)

7

The following text between < and > is a quote:


Posted by: jaeger at November 20, 2023 09:13 PM (Clze2)

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