Once again, polar cold is riding anomalously-far south on the back of a weak and wavy meridional jet stream flow — a phenomenon expected –and proven– to increase during times of low solar activity, such as the historically low output we’ve been experiencing over the past few years.

Between 2018, 2019 and 2020, the Sun suffered a total of 710 spotless days. Sunspots are a great barometer for solar activity, and to find a solar minimum with more spotless days (aka fewer sunspots) you have to go all the way back to the early-1900s (the "Centennial Minimum”), and before that, the early-1800s (the "Dalton Minimum”). The year’s 2018-2019-2020 were a century-class Solar Minimum; solar flares were rare, geomagnetic storms almost non-existent, and Earth’s atmosphere had begun to cool–so much so in fact, that by late-2020 it had all-but reversed the past few decades of natural global warming brought-about by historically high solar output.

That cooling trend has only intensified into 2021 (see UAH), and while the next Solar Cycle (SC25) has shown unmistakable signs of life, it has been slow to get going. The Sun has been "blank” (devoid of sunspots) for long periods (41 days as of April 14), right at a time when all systems should be firing us into the ramp-up to solar maximum (due around 2025). In short, the historically weak minimum of cycle 24 is reluctant to release its icy grip.

Looking ahead, it’s still honestly anyone’s guess how SC25 will develop. NOAA says the cycle will top out at just 114 sunspots (so similar to Solar Cycle 24), while NASA has said that it will rival the cycles of the Dalton Minimum, some 200 years ago: "The forecast for the next solar cycle says it will be the weakest of the last 200 years. The maximum of this next cycle – measured in terms of sunspot number, a standard measure of solar activity level – could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one. The results show that the next cycle will start in 2020 and reach its maximum in 2025.”

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5 Jesus Clay the sun is in fact hitting a minimum that is nearing the equal of the Dalton Minimum of the 19th century. The Dalton Minimum coincided with the end of the Little Ice Age. We've been in a warming period ever since, with a couple of decades exception (the '60's and '70's.)

But since 1998 when the sun hit a grand solar maximum we have been in a rather quiet time, and for the last few years a VERY quiet time. We may not just have a Dalton minimum but a Maunder minimum, like at the peak of the Little Ice Age in the 18th century.

We could be in for some really cold times ahead; solar activity tracks planetary warmth in most cases, as far as science can determine. The modern emphasis is on greenhouse gases (for political reasons) but solar activity has always predicted planetary temperatures fairly well.

If you would like I could probably hunt up some resources for you. Or you could do it yourself. Good web pages to check are Dr. Roy Spencer's page, Ice Age Now, Judith Curry, Wattsupwiththat, Not a Lot of People Know That (Paul Homewood's page), Roger Pielke Jr.'s site, etc. 

6 In short, the historically weak minimum of cycle 24 is reluctant to release its icy grip.