Dana Mathewson

From "Friend Eddie." I wager there are some ideas herein that haven't occurred to you yet.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-17/10000000-people-will-march-washington-if-they-impeach-trump-they-will-be-armed-no-ki

From the article:

"10,000,000 people will march on Washington if they try to impeach Trump... they will be heavily armed. I will be one of them. No kidding

[...]

"The truth is, while our pseudonymous contributor is given to outrageously couched statements, he has picked up on something that is close to our hearts. You can see it in how polls are just wrong consistently. And to us that is explainable. The statistical world relies to heavily on polls. Polls are merely "snapshots' of moments.

What is not revealed in polls is the subjectivity of the person being polled!. We know the bias of pollsters. But what has been ignored for years is subjective probability. That concept relates to trends when humans are involved.

Do you think people are going to be honest with pollsters anymore? No, they say what you want to hear so they can move on. Voting is very private. And people are taking back that privacy. On a broader scale, subjective or conditional probability includes drifts or trends. Nassim Taleb is a key proponent of this, and we count him as a genius in taking his options knowledge and applying it to many fields in need of improvement. We also enjoy his lambasting those dogmatists that do not get it. Jim Rickards is another subscriber to Bayesian theorems."

[...]

"What are the Odds of a DC March if a Populist President is Impeached?

Can we afford to ignore "Bon", our colleague who is quite sane, does not represent the lunatic fringe, and is intimately aware that while Trump may not be a beltway darling, he has governed through populism.

Witness how Trump castrated the media with his "Fake News" press conference. He literally made people reject the MSM info as false and further likely turned people off to even looking at it.

He effectively put them in a box where they could not sell their wares anymore.

This is no easy task. Winning elections via populism is easy game. But actually governing that way is not easy. We'd dare say, it has not been done ever in a Republic.

So here we are. A populist-ly elected President who has thus far governed through populism. A president with a loyal following that is likely to not take an unconstitutional impeachment sitting down. Trump will not go quietly into the night. He will appeal to the public. He is a narcissist. And to his credit, narcissists are all about winning popularity contests.

And against him are now the legal types who will use the Constitution to undermine it.

To Bon we joked:

"To get you and your pals to disburse, all we have to do is kill the wifi."

To which he responded:

That isn't enough. You may get some to go home with Beer bribes, but the core people mean business. They will not stand for this"

Read the entire article; it is well worth your time.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 09:20 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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