June 01, 2020
People Shot to Death by Race 2020
Premise 1 - Crime victims may get the identity wrong of the person who committed the crime against them, they are unlikely to misidentify the race. A little old lady mugged by a white guy in a mullet is not likely to tell the cops it was a black guy in dreads...
Premise 2 - If Whites and Blacks committed crimes in proportion to their population, then police shootings should also be roughly proportional to population.
Premise 3 - Black criminality is disproportionat
I have no definitive answer for WHY black criminality is disproportionat
A black violent criminal had a .0011% chance of being shot (I am using a police shooting as a proxy for encounters with police that end in violence). A white violent criminal has a .0013% chance - slightly better than the black criminal.
For this reason, I am not seeing evidence of a systemic police bias against blacks.
What we are ALWAYS going to have is police misconduct from time to time. We very well could use better training, better screening and appropriate accountability,
Here is an NIH study offered to refute my premise.
Victims were majority white (52%) but disproportionat
Death by cop: Blacks 32% and Whites 52%.
Violent crime arrests: Black 38% Whites 58%
I see that both groups are hurt or killed in excess of 6% of their arrests (which I am using as a proxy for police contact that I presume is due to criminal activity, not random harassment).
While this shows that a black man is slightly more likely to get clobbered by the cops, the difference is .07% which strikes me as a number that would fall well within a margin of error.
I do not think it demonstrates that Blacks are subject to any particular bias...but I may be doing the math wrong.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at
11:22 AM
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