June 01, 2020

Why Blacks are not Targeted by Police

Tim McNabb

People Shot to Death by Race 2020

Premise 1 - Crime victims may get the identity wrong of the person who committed the crime against them, they are unlikely to misidentify the race. A little old lady mugged by a white guy in a mullet is not likely to tell the cops it was a black guy in dreads...

Premise 2 - If Whites and Blacks committed crimes in proportion to their population, then police shootings should also be roughly proportional to population.

Premise 3 - Black criminality is disproportionat e to black population. Blacks represent about 14% of the population, but represent 38% of the violent crime arrests. Whites are about 62% of the population, but represent 58% of violent crimes.

I think all violent crime is tragic, and fortunately over the last few decades the frequency has decreased. Even so, the number of violent crimes is tiny compared to the US population. Black violent crimes are 187,000 (for 2018) and whites committing such crimes are 288,620. In a country of 330 million, few of us (.0012%) are victims of either whites or blacks.

I have no definitive answer for WHY black criminality is disproportionat
e, though historically it has been a cultural issue among those so affected. I suspect it is a combination of those things that are valued among the group, the mores of the group, the expectations of their neighbors and what is available for social mobility.


A black violent criminal had a .0011% chance of being shot (I am using a police shooting as a proxy for encounters with police that end in violence). A white violent criminal has a .0013% chance - slightly better than the black criminal.

For this reason, I am not seeing evidence of a systemic police bias against blacks.

What we are ALWAYS going to have is police misconduct from time to time. We very well could use better training, better screening and appropriate accountability,
but this all seems like a giant load of bullshit that is upsetting a lot of my friends and neighbors.

Here is an NIH study offered to refute my premise.

Victims were majority white (52%) but disproportionat
ely black (32%) with a fatality rate 2.8 times higher among blacks than whites. Most victims were reported to be armed (83%); however, black victims were more likely to be unarmed (14.8%) than white (9.4%) or Hispanic (5.8%) victims. Fatality rates among military veterans/ active duty service members were 1.4 times greater than among their civilian counterparts. Four case subtypes were examined based on themes that emerged in incident narratives: about 22% of cases were mental health related; 18% were suspected "suicide by cop” incidents, with white victims more likely than black or Hispanic victims to die in these circumstances; 14% involved intimate partner violence; and about 6% were unintentional deaths due to LE action. Another 53% of cases were unclassified and did not fall into a coded subtype. Regression analyses identified victim and incident characteristics associated with each case subtype and unclassified cases.

Death by cop: Blacks 32% and Whites 52%.
Violent crime arrests: Black 38% Whites 58%

I see that both groups are hurt or killed in excess of 6% of their arrests (which I am using as a proxy for police contact that I presume is due to criminal activity, not random harassment).

While this shows that a black man is slightly more likely to get clobbered by the cops, the difference is .07% which strikes me as a number that would fall well within a margin of error.

I do not think it demonstrates that Blacks are subject to any particular bias...but I may be doing the math wrong.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 11:22 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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