## January 08, 2018

**The Easy Money; Problems with Convenience Samples**

Timothy Birdnow

Think planetary temperature data are accurate measurements based on physical data? Think again.

According to the article by David Wojick:

"Contrary to popular belief these are not measurements. They are the output of complex statistical models. These statistical models are every bit as questionable as the climate models they feed into, actually more so."

[,,,]
"But the satellites show no such warming in the atmosphere over
this period, where it should be if it were caused by greenhouse gases.
The satellites show no warming at all over this crucial time. This zero
warming strongly suggests that the surface statistical models are wrong.

Keep
in mind that these global temperature statistics are no different than
a voter poll prior to an election and we know how wrong they can be. An
incredibly tiny subset of the overall population is being sampled. In
this case the overall population is the temperature every place on
earth at every moment over an entire year.

The pollsters know
that a lot can go wrong. Apparently the alarmists that cite these crude
temperature estimates as precise facts do not, or they choose to ignore
the problems, in which case they are faking it.

There are at
least ten things wrong with these statistical models. These flaws
support the view that these crude temperature estimates are simply
wrong. Some flaws are well known, like arbitrary adjustments an"

d
the urban heat island effect. Other weaknesses are less well known,
like local heat contamination, the use of area averaging and
interpolation, or the use of sea water proxies, as well as taking the
mean value to be true when we know it is not. These will be topics of
later analyses.

But here I present the deepest flaw, which is
not widely discussed. This is that the surface statistical models are
operating on what is called in statistics an "availability” or
"convenience” sample."

End excerpt.

It should be pointed
out that the number of actual surface stations providing the raw data
have declined considerably during the last decade, at a time when logic
would dictate we would increase them to study the "problem". This
decrease is made up by averaging two samples from two other stations,
as if an average is all one needs to obtain precision. There isn't much
point in taking actual temperature data if we are simply going to
assume that a point equidistant between two others - perhaps fifty
miles apart each way - is going to simply be the average of the two.

The article continues:

"Here is an example from NOAA’s recent "Global Climate Report” for 2016:

"The
average global temperature across land and ocean surface areas for 2016
was 0.94°C (1.69°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F),
surpassing the previous record warmth of 2015 by 0.04°C (0.07°F).”

A
hundredth of a degree is incredible accuracy given that temperatures
around the globe on many days can differ by a hundred degrees or more
F. In fact it is not credible. The truth is that these surface
statistical models are not merely inaccurate, they are worthless. Here
is why.

The math of statistics is based on probability theory.
Thus one of the absolute requirements is that the sample be random. If
the sample is not random then the math is not applicable.

In
fact the samples used in the surface statistical models are nothing
like a random sample of the Earth’s surface. They are heavily clustered
near urban areas and airports in developed countries. The locations
were not chosen to be a global temperature sampling system and they
certainly are not. The oceans are even worse because there are no fixed
stations. Most of the Earth had no fixed temperature recording stations
during the period in question, and still have none. There is no random
sample of the Earth’s surface temperature.

In short the surface statistical models use the data that is available, not a random sample of the population."

End excerpt.

Bear
in mind that climatology was a sleepy backwater, a branch of
meteorology, until the global warming scare brought big bucks into it.
Now huge amounts of government money is doled out for the express
purpose of "proving' the theory to justify draconian government
regulations, and in fact the fundamental reordering of human society.
Fudging data, or at least providing bad data, is inevitable.

It's
like those media polls that showed Hillary Clinton winning the election
by ten points or more; they weren't intended to provide accuracy but
rather to create a bandwagon effect, to influence the electorate.

I
simply cannot believe that we are still talking about this idiocy after
all these decades. This is a WAr of the worlds scam that has lasted a
generation now. And the Millenials buy into it hook, line, and sinker,
despite zero evidence to prove any of this is true.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at
11:09 AM
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