December 27, 2021
Null Sea Level Rise Acceleration
John Lees
Sea level rise acceleration in the satellite altimeter record is statistically equivalent to zero. According to this paper in Nature from scientists at Delft Uni. Remote Sensing.
A rare confirmation of the null hypothesis. As far as we can tell from 27 years of satellite data, nothing is happening.
This is actually from last year, I must have missed this at the time.
Full paper, here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-47340-z?proof=t
I have spent some considerable time attempting to discern where it is that Church, Nerem, Jevrejeva et al pull their claimed massive acceleration in the late 20th century from.
Something very curious is occurring. I'm inclined to conclude that very bad data (much of it from the Indian Ocean) is receiving heavy weighting due to the sparsity of good data for that vast area of water.
Lyle Hancock Sr. adds:
The bias I've seen repeated in several papers is the PSMSL record is rather discontinuous for a number of in-situ gauge records. There is a tendency to eliminate discontinuous records for more complete gauge records. The problem is most of the complete gauge records are close to large cities and suffer from significant subsidence from groundwater extraction and land development.
Using four different modeling methods, each addressing different kinds of data dropouts, I did a complete reconstruction of the discontinuous records to include them in the analysis, which gave a much better spatial representation of global sea-level trends and a longer usable history. The conclusion of my paper was the global SLR is rather insignificant.
Mr. Lees replies:
This example is quite close to home (for me, just across the Irish Sea). It is simply impossible that the sea level is the cause of the sudden rate change seen in this graph. Something has clearly happened to this critical gauge or the site upon which it stands. And yet that conclusion seems to be brushed aside, in favour of taking this to be an indication of the 20th century acceleration.
Terrible nonsense:
Sea level rise acceleration in the satellite altimeter record is statistically equivalent to zero. According to this paper in Nature from scientists at Delft Uni. Remote Sensing.
A rare confirmation of the null hypothesis. As far as we can tell from 27 years of satellite data, nothing is happening.
This is actually from last year, I must have missed this at the time.
Full paper, here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-47340-z?proof=t
I have spent some considerable time attempting to discern where it is that Church, Nerem, Jevrejeva et al pull their claimed massive acceleration in the late 20th century from.
Something very curious is occurring. I'm inclined to conclude that very bad data (much of it from the Indian Ocean) is receiving heavy weighting due to the sparsity of good data for that vast area of water.
Lyle Hancock Sr. adds:
The bias I've seen repeated in several papers is the PSMSL record is rather discontinuous for a number of in-situ gauge records. There is a tendency to eliminate discontinuous records for more complete gauge records. The problem is most of the complete gauge records are close to large cities and suffer from significant subsidence from groundwater extraction and land development.
Using four different modeling methods, each addressing different kinds of data dropouts, I did a complete reconstruction of the discontinuous records to include them in the analysis, which gave a much better spatial representation of global sea-level trends and a longer usable history. The conclusion of my paper was the global SLR is rather insignificant.
Mr. Lees replies:
This example is quite close to home (for me, just across the Irish Sea). It is simply impossible that the sea level is the cause of the sudden rate change seen in this graph. Something has clearly happened to this critical gauge or the site upon which it stands. And yet that conclusion seems to be brushed aside, in favour of taking this to be an indication of the 20th century acceleration.
Terrible nonsense:
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at
11:16 AM
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1
Interesting. The article was written by "insiders," for "insiders," and presupposes a familiarity with terminology and methods. However, it does seem as if they're trying to do an honest job and get as close as possible to the truth of the situation.
And I always figured Obama was lying to me when he said the Maldives (which he referred to as the Malvinas) were going to be underwater soon.
And I always figured Obama was lying to me when he said the Maldives (which he referred to as the Malvinas) were going to be underwater soon.
Posted by: Dana Mathewson at December 27, 2021 11:48 AM (zjwe/)
2
These guys ARE insiders and are friends of mine on Facebook. Both fascinating men.
The Maldives just build some new airports, so they clearly don't agree with Mr. Obama. Maybe he DID mean the Malvinas aka Falklands, but there is no evidence of rising seas there either.
The Maldives just build some new airports, so they clearly don't agree with Mr. Obama. Maybe he DID mean the Malvinas aka Falklands, but there is no evidence of rising seas there either.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at December 28, 2021 10:59 AM (NEYXp)
3
IIRC, the context of his remark made it clear he was referencing the Maldives -- although it would have been just like him to use the term Malvinas instead of the Falkland Islands if he'd been discussing them. He was/is a very annoying person.
Posted by: Dana Mathewson at December 28, 2021 03:10 PM (zjwe/)
4
He called them the Malvinas on more than one occasion, angering the Brits. He was such a jackass.
Using the name given by the Spaniards makes little sense as they did not colonize the land nor did they rule it. The only claim Argentina has to the Falklands is it was part of the original land claim by Spain when they became independent.
Using the name given by the Spaniards makes little sense as they did not colonize the land nor did they rule it. The only claim Argentina has to the Falklands is it was part of the original land claim by Spain when they became independent.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at December 29, 2021 10:39 AM (1UEIk)
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