This from Jim Church

We are going to be fed a regular diet of global temperature reports in the run-up to the COP26 climate talks later this year. They’re all going to be based on model projections of what’s likely to happen in coming years. The Paris Agreement’s 1.5 °C climate target is in focus, but whether it be exceeded and when remains uncertain. 

This link is to a GWPF report on extreme weather in 2020 showing clearly that there is nothing to be alarmed about.

disasters are currently escalating. However, such claims are wrong, as clearly shown by data presented in the two reports. Two different sections of the CRED-UNDRR report state that since 2000 the annual number of disasters has either risen significantly or been ‘relatively stable’. But these statements are completely contradicted by data in the same report showing that the number of climate-related disasters fell by 11% from 2000 to 2020. The CRED-UNDRR report also falsely contends that more disasters occurred between 2000 and 2019 than during the preceding 20 years. This assertion is mirrored in the IFRC report, which makes the erroneous claim that annual climate-related disasters have risen almost 35% since the 1990s. Both spurious claims arise from a failure to account for the major increase in disaster reporting engendered by the arrival of the Internet in the late 1990s. Not only has the annual number of global disasters over the last 20 years declined, but the number of people killed by weather extremes has also been falling steadily over the past century – though this is due as much to improvements in planning, engineering and early warning systems as it is to diminishing natural disasters. And once financial losses from climate related disasters, which are currently increasing, are corrected for population gain and the ever-rising value of property in harm’s way, there is very little evidence to support any connection between natural disasters and global warming. Just as in previous years, little persuasive scientific evidence emerged in 2020 to support the mistaken belief that weather extremes are caused by emissions of greenhouse gases, or that the frequency or intensity of extreme weather is on the rise. No evidence was found for a 2020 study’s claim that the Great Barrier Reef lost 50% of its corals between 1995 and 2017 because of global warming. Notable extremes in 2020 included a prolonged heatwave in Siberia, an unusually cold summer in the northern hemi sphere, a very active hurricane season in the North Atlantic, and wildfires in the Arctic and the western US. Yet nearly all of these extremes can be attributed to naturally occurring cycles: the Siberian heatwave to the Arctic Oscillation, cold extremes to the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and both North Atlantic hurricanes and Arctic wildfires to the warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 06:55 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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