Timothy Birdnow

Here is more global warming sophistry masquerading as science.

A paper published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by a group of European con artists, er, scientists argues that avalanches in the Himalayas are increasing and that this is, you guessed it, because of Global Warming, er, Climate Flatulence, er, Climate Change!

From the physorg article:
"...In this new effort, the researchers wondered what impact global warming might exert on the number of avalanches that occur each year in the Western Himalayas. To find out, they studied tree ring data over the past 150 years and compared it with snowfall data—the science involved is called dendrogeomorphology, and offers a means for tracking avalanches over long periods of time.

In looking at their data, the team was able to see that the number of avalanches occurring each year in the area has been increasing since the 1970s. Prior to that time, they found that snow avalanches were relatively rare—during the '40s and early '50s, for example, there were none. But after 1970, the rate increased to approximately 0.87 per year. A big increase over the 0.24 rate for the entire period of study. They also noticed that impacted areas tended to be larger after 1970.

The risk of a snow avalanches goes up, the researchers note, as temperatures rise causing an increase in liquid water in the snowpack which in turn increases the shear deformation rate, causing stress, which is released when the snowpack collapses in an avalanche. The risk is likely to be exacerbated, they note, by an expected increase in average snowfall during the months of January and February for the foreseeable future.

The researchers also created a model to help predict what might happen in the area as global warming continues and found, unsurprisingly, that the risk increased. This the team notes, suggests that officials in charge of public safety need to add safeguards to reduce the chances of harm coming to those who live or visit such areas during the cold months."

End excerpt.

Of course they "unsurprisingly" found warming would cause greater and more frequent avalanches; it was the result they were looking for, and they jimmied their models to come up with that exact result.

This is horse poo in several ways.

First, they say that the rate of avalanches increased after 1970 from a nadir of none in the '40's and 50's. I submit this table as exhibit A:

Decade °C °F
1880s 13.73 56.71
1890s 13.75 56.74
1900s 13.74 56.73
1910s 13.72 56.70
1920s 13.83 56.89
1930s 13.96 57.12
1940s 14.04 57.26
1950s 13.98 57.16
1960s 13.99 57.18
1970s 14.00 57.20
1980s 14.18 57.52

Please note that the 1930's was warmer than the 1970's, when there were no avalanches at all. Kind of shoots the theory down, doesn't it?

While the Current results website does not give the source, it is likely from NOAA, which has been laboring to fudge historical data, cooling the '30's and '40's to make the modern warming trend appear worse than it is.

In point of fact, the 1970;s saw a panic over global COOLING. That ended when it became obvious that there was a warming trend, and the same people hysterically predicting an ice age shifted gears and went immediately to hysterics about the burning Earth.

The point is, the hot days of the '40's did not appreciably increase avalanche activity.

Second point; how is it that avalanche activity is up when we have been told the snowpack/glaciation in the Himalayas is down because it's too warm? I did a Google search and found 41,300 results for "declining snowpack in himalayas". Back in 2015 CBS News wrote 70% of Everest glacier could be gone by 2100". Back in January of 2018 we were treated to this:

"Another recent study, for instance—just out last week in Science Advances — documented a general decline in snow water resources across High Mountain Asia, a region spanning from the Hindu Kush region to the Himalayas."

End excerpt.

Several papers claim large scale Himalayan glacial disappearance. See Bolch et al. 2012; Armstrong 2010; Bamber 2012; Kang et al. 2010.

If snow pack is reducing and glaciers disappearing, how are we getting more avalanches? Avalanches occur because the weight of the snow overcomes the natural surface adhesion. Avalanche.org [link-https://avalanche.org/avalanche-encyclopedia/density-snow-1/]says:

"The stability of the snowpack is influenced by many factors, but two of the most important is the strength of the weak layer and the load it has to support. The weight of the snow resting on a weak layer is a factor of the depth of the slab and its density."

[...]

"Another important factor to consider regarding snow density is trends during a storm. If the temperature is warm when the snow starts falling, and then becomes colder, we have what we call a "right side up” storm. The snow is light and fluffy on top and becomes more dense with depth. A far less desirable scenario is called an "upside down” storm and is the result of increasing temperatures during snowfall. The result is heavy, denser snow on top of lighter snow — you can see what we’re getting at can’t you? An upside down storm can result in a slab (dense snow) over a weak layer (less dense snow), providing the necessary ingredients for slab avalanches."

End excerpt.

The key here is snow has to fall - something the Global Warming people insist isn't happening in the Himalayas to begin with.

Here is another website that explains avalanches:

"Winter season is when they are most common, often brought on after a large storm in the area. Rainfall and sleet also tend to be responsible for avalanches in the summer and monsoon season.

End excerpt.

This site gives four causes of avalanches:

1. Snowstorm and Wind Direction: Heavy snowstorms are more likely to cause Avalanches. The 24 hours after a storm are considered to be the most critical. Wind normally blows from one side of the slope of mountain to another side. While blowing up, it will scour snow off the surface which can overhang a mountain.

2. Heavy snowfall: Heavy snowfall is the first, since it deposits snow in unstable areas and puts pressure on the snow-pack. Precipitation during the summer months is the leading cause of wet snow avalanches.

3. Human Activity: Humans have contributed to the start of many avalanches in recent years. Winter sports that require steep slopes often put pressure on the snow-pack which it cannot deal. Combined with the heavy deforestation and soil erosion in mountain regions, it gives the snow little stability in the winter months. Further natural causes include earthquakes and tremors, since they can often create cracks in the snow-pack.

4. Vibration or Movement

End

Nothing is said about warming. On the contrary, warming appears to be counterindicated as a cause of avalanches. Warming can make an avalanche that is ready to happen occur ie. is a trigger, but not the cause.

So, either there is more snowfall or there isn't. Which is it? AS always, the modelers want to have it both ways. If there are more avalanches there clearly is an increase in snowfall.

Please note, too, that snow falling on warmer, wetter snow is a "right side up" situation, one less likely to produce avalanches.

And, as I tire of explaining to all and sundry, there has been NO FREAKING WARMING in over twenty years now.

If there is an increase in avalanches in the Himalayas, it clearly has little to do with anthropogenic global warming. In fact, I wonder if it is not because we are in a cooling trend and thus there is more snowpack.

By the way, the Western Himalayas receive a lot more snow than the eastern, because they are higher and subject to more moist air coming from the Indian ocean. The eastern side is dryer thanks to the Gobi to the northeast and steppe to the northwest and the lower altitude.

Consider this.

"For the third year in a row, India’s monsoon season has produced floods in the northwest and the northeast, while southern parts of the country have suffered from a rainfall deficit. Rainfall extremes have increased threefold over the last few years and now extend over all of central India – from Gujarat to Odisha. The floods of 2017 are quite consistent with this pattern; the moisture derives from the northern Arabian Sea and not from depressions in the Bay of Bengal as one would usually expect.

Considering the total rainfall over the entire monsoon season from June to September, an early monsoon tends to bring bountiful rainfall whereas better-than-average rainfall is rarely seen when they are delayed.

The onset of the monsoon has been delayed almost every year since 1976, when there was a regime shift in climate around the world – from a weak to a strong El Niño period. Since this time, monsoons have also been ending sooner – almost a week from the end of September – so the length of the rainy season has been compressed. This is in addition to the approximately 10% decrease in All India Monsoon Rainfall, and an increase in the spatial variability of monsoon rainfall, since the 1950s:

End excerpt.

So, changes in the ENSO means shorter but more severe rainfall during Monsoon season. What happens then?

Why, an upside-down snowfall in the Himalayas. And when that happens, what is the result?

Anybody, anybody?

Yes, avalanches. And this is traceable to changes in the strength of the El Nino, which entered a positive phase in 1976, just about the time the climate cooling flipped to warming. And since then the intensity of monsoons have increased, and since then the number of Himalayan avalanches have increased. Anyone see a pattern here?]

Too bad these junk scientists who wrote this idiotic paper didn't bother to do the basic research I just performed.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 11:23 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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