November 20, 2024
ACLU to File Legal Challengestto Deportations
Timothy Birdnow
The ACLU, working in conjunction with the Democrats, is plotting a series of lawsuits to stop Trump from deporting illegal aliens.
No surprise.
Trump should file his own lawsuits, or rather his surrogates should, in friendly courts first, and when he wins this could either wind up dragging on for years or it could fast track to SCOTUS. He needs a legal impramateur, even if he is following the letter of the law. Some liberal judge will simply nullify the law if he doesn't beat them to it.
The ACLU, working in conjunction with the Democrats, is plotting a series of lawsuits to stop Trump from deporting illegal aliens.
No surprise.
Trump should file his own lawsuits, or rather his surrogates should, in friendly courts first, and when he wins this could either wind up dragging on for years or it could fast track to SCOTUS. He needs a legal impramateur, even if he is following the letter of the law. Some liberal judge will simply nullify the law if he doesn't beat them to it.
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Another "FU America" from Biden
Timothy Birdnow
Another parting gift from Captain Peachfuzz Biden. In yet another big fu to the American People he has just give four BILLION dollars to the World Bank.
Watch for Biden to go crazy with spending now - he wants Trump deep in the hole when he comes into office.
Another parting gift from Captain Peachfuzz Biden. In yet another big fu to the American People he has just give four BILLION dollars to the World Bank.
Watch for Biden to go crazy with spending now - he wants Trump deep in the hole when he comes into office.
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07:41 AM
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Biden Pushing Us to Nuclear Holocaust
Timothy Birdnow
Biden continues to ramp up the war in Ukraine, authorizing the use of American landmines on Russian troops.
Couple that with the authorization of long rang missiles to strike Russia itself and we have a recipe' for disaster.
Meanwhile Vladimir Putin has lowered the threshold for a Russian nuclear launch.
If Biden keeps pushing we will get nuked. That'll show that SoB Trump!
Biden continues to ramp up the war in Ukraine, authorizing the use of American landmines on Russian troops.
Couple that with the authorization of long rang missiles to strike Russia itself and we have a recipe' for disaster.
Meanwhile Vladimir Putin has lowered the threshold for a Russian nuclear launch.
If Biden keeps pushing we will get nuked. That'll show that SoB Trump!
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Shredding Evidence at DOJ
Timothy Birdnow
You'll be able to insulate a lot of buildings with all the paper they are going to be shredding.
Paper Shredding Truck Appears Outside DOJ After Gaetz Nomination
Trump and Congress need to go to Federal court for an emergency injunction now before they shred it all.
You'll be able to insulate a lot of buildings with all the paper they are going to be shredding.
Paper Shredding Truck Appears Outside DOJ After Gaetz Nomination
Trump and Congress need to go to Federal court for an emergency injunction now before they shred it all.
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07:25 AM
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Honeypots and Black Kettles; the Plot to Get Trump Thickens
Timothy Birdnow
It just keeps getting worse and worse.
Whistleblower: James Comey had FBI ‘honey pot’ spies infiltrate Trump’s 2016 campaign
FTA:
So they set out to destroy Trump from the very beginning. This is KGB type of behavior.
It just keeps getting worse and worse.
Whistleblower: James Comey had FBI ‘honey pot’ spies infiltrate Trump’s 2016 campaign
FTA:
The House Judiciary Committee is examining a whistleblower report that the FBI targeted Donald Trump soon after he announced his presidential campaign in June 2015, an off-the-books operation ordered by FBI Director James B. Comey that predated the Crossfire Hurricane operation.
An FBI agent involved in the probe revealed the off-the-books criminal investigation on Tuesday in a protected disclosure sent to the committee.
The whistleblower disclosure said two female FBI undercover agents infiltrated Mr. Trump’s 2016 campaign at high levels and were directed to act as "honeypots” while traveling with Mr. Trump and his campaign staff on the trail.
According to the disclosure, which The Washington Times reviewed, the investigation differed from the later Crossfire Hurricane counterintelligence operation targeting Russian collusion. It said the early off-the-books probe was a criminal investigation targeting Mr. Trump and his 2016 presidential campaign staff.
The agent "personally knew” that Mr. Comey ordered an FBI investigation against Mr. Trump and that Mr. Comey "personally directed it,” according to the disclosure.
An FBI agent involved in the probe revealed the off-the-books criminal investigation on Tuesday in a protected disclosure sent to the committee.
The whistleblower disclosure said two female FBI undercover agents infiltrated Mr. Trump’s 2016 campaign at high levels and were directed to act as "honeypots” while traveling with Mr. Trump and his campaign staff on the trail.
According to the disclosure, which The Washington Times reviewed, the investigation differed from the later Crossfire Hurricane counterintelligence operation targeting Russian collusion. It said the early off-the-books probe was a criminal investigation targeting Mr. Trump and his 2016 presidential campaign staff.
The agent "personally knew” that Mr. Comey ordered an FBI investigation against Mr. Trump and that Mr. Comey "personally directed it,” according to the disclosure.
So they set out to destroy Trump from the very beginning. This is KGB type of behavior.
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November 19, 2024
The FBI Oprichnina
Timothy Birdnow
Death certificate data shows that the FBI is grossly undercounting homicides in the U.S. during the Biden era.
"Death certificates have always provided broader and more accurate data than the FBI’s figures, but the gap between them has grown sharply under the Biden administration. This may indicate that local law enforcement agencies, states, and/or the FBI are undercounting murders.
Furthermore, the Biden administration FBI inexplicably revised its pre-Biden murder data all the way back to 2003, elevating the counts in certain years by up to 7%. The FBI made these unprecedented alterations without so much as a footnote to inform the public."
end
In other words Biden simply is erasing reality, gaslighting America.
Does this sound vaguely familiar to readers of The Aviary? It should. This is a redoux of the whole Climate scam, where numbers are messaged to fit the alarmist narrative and historical data are "smoothed" to benefit the people producing it.
No doubt they got the idea from Michael Mann and Phil Jones,James Hanson, Kevin Trenberth, Gavin Schmidt and the rest of the Hockey Team" who faked data and results and bullied journals into not publishing "denier" papers and who peer reviewed their friends' own papers. No doubt they looked at the Climate Research Unit and the Met Office, at NOAA and NASA and saw how it was done. They figured they could just make reality fit what they wanted it to be.
There is a word I would use for that. Lying, yet, but I would call it sorcery, witchcraft. They think they can redefine reality by "framing" it when in fact all they are doing is framing honest folks. It's Goebbels "Big Lie".
So the FIB, er, FBI has thrown away any reputation they have had to protect a corrupt and lawless regime and has now been caught, and the incoming Administration isn't going to let them off the hook this time.
Donald Trump had better beware the ides of March (or any other day he's in public.) These people have every incentive to find a, uh, permanent solution to their Trump problem.
Ngô Đình Diệm, the president of South Vietnam, was arrested and assassinated in a CIA-backed coup d'état led by General Dương Văn Minh On November 2 1963. He was a U.S. ally, but the Central Intelligence Agency deemed him a threat to our long-term plans. So we rubbed him out. If they were willing to do that to Diem, isn't it even more conceivable they would do that to a man they have told us is Hitler? Isn't it better that one innocent man die than that a nation fall? That will be their reasoning.
This is the inevitable progression from gaslighting and stealing elections. When victory is not total in their evil and clandestine efforts they inevitably find a final solution and justify it as "for the good of the People" when in fact it is only for the good of themselves and their friends.
One need but look at the reign of Ivan the Terrible. Ivan demanded and received a special status for his followers. The Oprichnina was a nation within a nation, and the Oprichniki were the people who held allegiance directly to the crazy Russkie Czar. They were untouchables by the law,a nd could do whatsoever they pleased with nobody to stop them. There was a reign of terror as the Oprichniki ran amok and the peasantry had better get well out of their way! That is where we are now; being a Progressive Democrat or Leftist puts you into the Oprichnina of modern America and different laws and rules apply. You can get away with things that would send the average person up the river. One need only look at the people serving LONG prison sentences for essentially trespassing in the Capitol, while Leftist Antifa and BLM rioters who did much worse received time served and maybe a small fine, paid for by special funds promoted by Kamala Harris and the others. Look at the things they hav used to go after Trump; creative applications of the law using novel theories to convict him of felonies that were at most misdemeanors and not really even that. Look at the imprisonment of guys like Peter Navarro or Steve Bannon or that Popodopoulis kid for things that Democrats are never held to account for doing. Remember Eric Holder told Congress to stuff their subpeona and nothing happend to HIM while Bannon got four months. Ditto Mayorkas.
We have a modern Oprichnina in America, and it is enforced by the FBI. They are the first ones who need to go.
Christopher Wray should be charged with racketeedring. So too should Merrick Garland. This is just one more piece of evidence for the complicity with the Biden Junta to crush political opposition and to abuse the authority given the FBI by the government and the People.
To this day most Russians despise the Oprichnina and with good reason. I think the FBI will go down in history as an evil entity of which we are well-rid in the end.
Death certificate data shows that the FBI is grossly undercounting homicides in the U.S. during the Biden era.
"Death certificates have always provided broader and more accurate data than the FBI’s figures, but the gap between them has grown sharply under the Biden administration. This may indicate that local law enforcement agencies, states, and/or the FBI are undercounting murders.
Furthermore, the Biden administration FBI inexplicably revised its pre-Biden murder data all the way back to 2003, elevating the counts in certain years by up to 7%. The FBI made these unprecedented alterations without so much as a footnote to inform the public."
end
In other words Biden simply is erasing reality, gaslighting America.
Does this sound vaguely familiar to readers of The Aviary? It should. This is a redoux of the whole Climate scam, where numbers are messaged to fit the alarmist narrative and historical data are "smoothed" to benefit the people producing it.
No doubt they got the idea from Michael Mann and Phil Jones,James Hanson, Kevin Trenberth, Gavin Schmidt and the rest of the Hockey Team" who faked data and results and bullied journals into not publishing "denier" papers and who peer reviewed their friends' own papers. No doubt they looked at the Climate Research Unit and the Met Office, at NOAA and NASA and saw how it was done. They figured they could just make reality fit what they wanted it to be.
There is a word I would use for that. Lying, yet, but I would call it sorcery, witchcraft. They think they can redefine reality by "framing" it when in fact all they are doing is framing honest folks. It's Goebbels "Big Lie".
So the FIB, er, FBI has thrown away any reputation they have had to protect a corrupt and lawless regime and has now been caught, and the incoming Administration isn't going to let them off the hook this time.
Donald Trump had better beware the ides of March (or any other day he's in public.) These people have every incentive to find a, uh, permanent solution to their Trump problem.
Ngô Đình Diệm, the president of South Vietnam, was arrested and assassinated in a CIA-backed coup d'état led by General Dương Văn Minh On November 2 1963. He was a U.S. ally, but the Central Intelligence Agency deemed him a threat to our long-term plans. So we rubbed him out. If they were willing to do that to Diem, isn't it even more conceivable they would do that to a man they have told us is Hitler? Isn't it better that one innocent man die than that a nation fall? That will be their reasoning.
This is the inevitable progression from gaslighting and stealing elections. When victory is not total in their evil and clandestine efforts they inevitably find a final solution and justify it as "for the good of the People" when in fact it is only for the good of themselves and their friends.
One need but look at the reign of Ivan the Terrible. Ivan demanded and received a special status for his followers. The Oprichnina was a nation within a nation, and the Oprichniki were the people who held allegiance directly to the crazy Russkie Czar. They were untouchables by the law,a nd could do whatsoever they pleased with nobody to stop them. There was a reign of terror as the Oprichniki ran amok and the peasantry had better get well out of their way! That is where we are now; being a Progressive Democrat or Leftist puts you into the Oprichnina of modern America and different laws and rules apply. You can get away with things that would send the average person up the river. One need only look at the people serving LONG prison sentences for essentially trespassing in the Capitol, while Leftist Antifa and BLM rioters who did much worse received time served and maybe a small fine, paid for by special funds promoted by Kamala Harris and the others. Look at the things they hav used to go after Trump; creative applications of the law using novel theories to convict him of felonies that were at most misdemeanors and not really even that. Look at the imprisonment of guys like Peter Navarro or Steve Bannon or that Popodopoulis kid for things that Democrats are never held to account for doing. Remember Eric Holder told Congress to stuff their subpeona and nothing happend to HIM while Bannon got four months. Ditto Mayorkas.
We have a modern Oprichnina in America, and it is enforced by the FBI. They are the first ones who need to go.
Christopher Wray should be charged with racketeedring. So too should Merrick Garland. This is just one more piece of evidence for the complicity with the Biden Junta to crush political opposition and to abuse the authority given the FBI by the government and the People.
To this day most Russians despise the Oprichnina and with good reason. I think the FBI will go down in history as an evil entity of which we are well-rid in the end.
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Penn Sups Order Bad Ballot Counting Ended
Timothy Birdnow
The Pennsylvania Supreme Court just issued an emergency injuction ordering Pennsylvania Democrats to quit counting illegal ballots.
Of course they may just continue doing so anyway. Certainly that woman in Bucks County said she would.
The problem is, once they are in the system you cannot get them out. There is no way of identifying the bad ones at that point.
So they already HAVE gotten away with it to a degree; whether that changes the outcome of the election remains to be seen.
People should be jailed for this. Matt Gaetz needs to pursue these thieves to the ends of the Earth.
The Pennsylvania Supreme Court just issued an emergency injuction ordering Pennsylvania Democrats to quit counting illegal ballots.
Of course they may just continue doing so anyway. Certainly that woman in Bucks County said she would.
The problem is, once they are in the system you cannot get them out. There is no way of identifying the bad ones at that point.
So they already HAVE gotten away with it to a degree; whether that changes the outcome of the election remains to be seen.
People should be jailed for this. Matt Gaetz needs to pursue these thieves to the ends of the Earth.
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Russia Shutting Off the Gas
Timothy Birdnow
This is just the first shoe to drop.
Gazprom is Cutting Off Gas Shipments to Austria
It's going to be a long, cold winter in Europe.
This is just the first shoe to drop.
Gazprom is Cutting Off Gas Shipments to Austria
It's going to be a long, cold winter in Europe.
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Prelude to Armageddon
Timothy Birdnow
Ukraine has started launching long range American missiles into Russia itself, leading Putin to raise the nuclear alert status and inching us closer towards the end of days.
This is a serious escalation and even a senile old fool like Joe Biden should understand the danger of what he is doing. But all he and his ilk care about is screwing Trump, leaving Trump with no option but a war.
The Russian Federation government claims they shot down many of these missiles with ABM systems.
Whether they did or did not, the fact remains that this is an act of war by the U.S. and Russia will have to respond.
Russia has been roundly criticized for attacking infrastructure in Ukraine, especially power plants. Interesting. Yet NATO completely ignores the fact that one of it's own members - Turkey - has done the exact same thing in northern Syria to the Kurds, bombing infrastructure in a drought zone. People are dying of thirst in the Kurdish area, yet the heroes of NATKO remain strangely silent on this.
Let us get Biblical for a moment, shall we. The current alignment is increasingly favorable to the Book of Ezekial and Revelation. Turkey has already tried to divert the headwaters of the Euphrates river to dry it up. Notably in 1990 when Iraq invaded Kuwait. The Euphrates river is the mother water in the Middle East, feeding endless canals in Syria and Iraq. It is the main source of fresh water and cutting it off would lead to an agricultural disaster in the region. So if the Turks are actually trying to cut off water to the Kurds by taking out infrastructure, then how far will they go? Will they actually divert the Euphrates again? That could well lead to a Russian attack from the north, something prophecied in the Bible.
The Euphrates river is a formidable boundary, I might add, and crossing it is difficult as i t is deep and swift. The Bible suggests it will miraculously dry up thus "making the way straight for the King of the East" with his 200 million man army.
Remember, Turkey is in NATO. If this war is starting to spread, as the Biden Administrtion appears eager to make happen, it could easily spread to Syria and Turkey might decide to make everyone downstream very thirsty.
Of course that assumes we don't have a full-blown nuclear exchange. That is one possible scenario. And a limited nuclear exchange may well be predicted in the Bible.
Revelation 8:7-11
7 The first angel sounded his trumpet, and there came hail and fire mixed with blood, and it was hurled down on the earth. A third of the earth was burned up, a third of the trees were burned up, and all the green grass was burned up.
8The second angel sounded his trumpet, and something like a huge mountain, all ablaze, was thrown into the sea. A third of the sea turned into blood,
9 a third of the living creatures in the sea died, and a third of the ships were destroyed.
10 The third angel sounded his trumpet, and a great star, blazing like a torch, fell from the sky on a third of the rivers and on the springs of water—
11 the name of the star is Wormwood. A third of the waters turned bitter, and many people died from the waters that had become bitter.
12 The fourth angel sounded his trumpet, and a third of the sun was struck, a third of the moon, and a third of the stars, so that a third of them turned dark. A third of the day was without light, and also a third of the night.
End
This happens before the drying up of the Euphrates river and the marching on Jerusalem. In Rev. 16:12 we are told:
"The sixth angel poured out his bowl on the great river Euphrates, and its water was dried up, to prepare the way for the kings from the east."
end
It seems to me Turkey, a NATO member, may well dry up the Euphrates to hurt Syria and others downstream. No doubt the war is escalating, as is obvious from the above.
China, ostensibly an ally of Russia although a big competitor, may feel it necessary to move into the region to drive out Western forces and aid their floundering Russian allies and to keep the flow of oil and gas feeding their industry and war machine.
Meanwhile,they seem to meet no resistance from the Iranians nor the Iraqis; that suggests they are allied powers friendly to the Chicoms. We KNOW Iran is an ally of Russia, and the Chinese have been making inroads with them.
In 2021 China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia signed the Strategic Partnership Plan, and it is well known they cooperate in BRICKS. Much of this would never have happened had NATO been wound down after the fall of the Soviet Union rather than expanded. And of course we know the official policy of the United States over the last thirty some-odd years has been to build China into a superpower, and it has worked far, far too well. All the Ruling Class lusted after opening a billion plus consumer market and gave no thought to the terrible peril that unleashed. You may remember during the '90's when Clinton's Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright, said it was not good the U.S. was the world's lone superpower. That was how the elitists thought; they wanted us to have a counterbalance, a boogeyman to move us in the direction they wanted us to move. With the fall of the Soviet Union they decided that boogeyman would be china. And like Viktor Frankenstein they created a monster.
So now once again the world is poised on a knife-edge and we are closer to the Apocalypse than ever. Lobbing American missiles into the heart of Russia pushes us that much closer to the End Times and any fool should understand that. But sadly we are not ruled by any fools - we are ruled by spectatcularly foolish fools! I'd love to have had fools in charge!
I wonder; could this Ukraine war lead to a limited nuclear exchange that does enough environmental damage that the events of Revelation are put into motion? Remember, the Bible is particularly prophecying about Israel and her environs. While the ultimate battle will be worldwide and threaten human survival as a species, much of what happens will be centered around Israel. If nukes go off in the Crimean region will fallout drop on Syria and other Middle Eastern regions? Will that poison the waters leading to a big escalation in armed conflict?
It will only be then the Antichrist will be revealed, the "son of perdition". He will make peace between Israel and the Arab world for a short time then turn on Israel, declaring himself God and triggering the Big One. We do not know who the Antichrist is at present.
I had a big argument with a dimwit who claimed Donald Trump was the Antichrist, and I am sure the near miss on Trump only bolstered his belief. But the Bible says he suffered a "mortal head wound" not an ear-nick. And Trump does not fit the description at all. The Antichrist will be the inverse of Jesus. Jesus went to the poor and working class as does Trump, while the Antichrist will undoubtedly go to the rich and powerful. Donald Trump has actually tried to reduce the scope and power of government and appears poised to do so again. The Antichrist will be a man who deifies government. Jesus did not counsel disobedience to government but He told His followers to not take it too seriously as it was but a temporary kingdom. The Antichrist will "He opposes and exalts himself above every so-called god or object of worship, so that he sits in God's temple, proclaiming that he himself is God" as it says in 2Thessalonians 2:4. While Trump has a healthy ego and is a vain man he also has repeatedly paid homage to God, most especially after the assassination attempt on him.
No, the Antichrist comes out of the Progressive Left. It is they who lead the charge against Christ and His Church. It is they who support abortion of God's innocents. It is they who fight for all manner of perversions.
Daniel 11:37 strongly suggests the Antichrist may be homosexual.
"37 Neither shall he regard the God of his fathers, nor the desire of women, nor regard any god: for he shall magnify himself above all."
(Sounds much more like Barack Obama, doesn't it!)
Trump, on the other hand, has great regard for women and regularly surrounds himself with many strong and attractive women. Shoot; Trump owned the Miss America pageant, for crying out loud!
No, Trump is not the Antichrist. But he may well be out there waiting to emerge. Could it be Zelensky? Perhaps. Rocker Ted Nugent called him a homosexual, not that that's an official source. But the rumors have persisted since Volodomor came on the scene. And he has been promoting same sex civil unions in a very straight-laced country. Oh, and The Advocate - a homosexual activist magazine - waxes poetic about Zelensky's LGBTQ bonafides.
If Ukraine is let into NATO and perhaps the E.U. one would find that argument compelling.
But he is just one candidate. I favor a comeback by Barack Obama in some capacity. Maybe he'll wind up in charge of the United Nations? Who knows, but Obama has always set off warning bells in my mind, at least since he became President.
One thing is certain; the Antichrist will be a well educated man, a member of the Intelligentsia, a child of privilege, and unquestionably part of the Progressive movement. He will dismiss God as an anachronism. He will favor destructive but seductive policies, like socialized medicine or rfid tags for individuals, or "gender affirming care" or abortion on demand or euthenasia, or any of the other direct challenges to the Almighty God we've seen from the Left. I can even see how he can "credibly" claim to be God; he'll talk about the new "era of science" and how we are now past the superstitions of religion and that he is the leader into the new, transhuman era. It would be a small step from that to godhood.
Who has tried to strangle the churches? Tweren't the Baptists. We know how they did it during Covid, shutting down religious worship. Trump didn't stop them because that would have been a violation of Federalism and also because Trump was listening to the "experts" at the time - which was Fauci. But Trump never imposed the draconian regulations that Biden would impose as soon as he took office (like firing anyone who refused the clot shot). Certainly Trump didn't shut down religioius worship. That was the Democrats.
At any rate, things seem to be coming to a head and we are in for some very scary, perhaps horrible, times ahead. Maybe not; Trump may put a stop to it with the help of the Almighty (who put him where he is). But Mankind is on probation.
The clock is ticking.
Ukraine has started launching long range American missiles into Russia itself, leading Putin to raise the nuclear alert status and inching us closer towards the end of days.
This is a serious escalation and even a senile old fool like Joe Biden should understand the danger of what he is doing. But all he and his ilk care about is screwing Trump, leaving Trump with no option but a war.
The Russian Federation government claims they shot down many of these missiles with ABM systems.
Whether they did or did not, the fact remains that this is an act of war by the U.S. and Russia will have to respond.
Russia has been roundly criticized for attacking infrastructure in Ukraine, especially power plants. Interesting. Yet NATO completely ignores the fact that one of it's own members - Turkey - has done the exact same thing in northern Syria to the Kurds, bombing infrastructure in a drought zone. People are dying of thirst in the Kurdish area, yet the heroes of NATKO remain strangely silent on this.
Let us get Biblical for a moment, shall we. The current alignment is increasingly favorable to the Book of Ezekial and Revelation. Turkey has already tried to divert the headwaters of the Euphrates river to dry it up. Notably in 1990 when Iraq invaded Kuwait. The Euphrates river is the mother water in the Middle East, feeding endless canals in Syria and Iraq. It is the main source of fresh water and cutting it off would lead to an agricultural disaster in the region. So if the Turks are actually trying to cut off water to the Kurds by taking out infrastructure, then how far will they go? Will they actually divert the Euphrates again? That could well lead to a Russian attack from the north, something prophecied in the Bible.
The Euphrates river is a formidable boundary, I might add, and crossing it is difficult as i t is deep and swift. The Bible suggests it will miraculously dry up thus "making the way straight for the King of the East" with his 200 million man army.
Remember, Turkey is in NATO. If this war is starting to spread, as the Biden Administrtion appears eager to make happen, it could easily spread to Syria and Turkey might decide to make everyone downstream very thirsty.
Of course that assumes we don't have a full-blown nuclear exchange. That is one possible scenario. And a limited nuclear exchange may well be predicted in the Bible.
Revelation 8:7-11
7 The first angel sounded his trumpet, and there came hail and fire mixed with blood, and it was hurled down on the earth. A third of the earth was burned up, a third of the trees were burned up, and all the green grass was burned up.
8The second angel sounded his trumpet, and something like a huge mountain, all ablaze, was thrown into the sea. A third of the sea turned into blood,
9 a third of the living creatures in the sea died, and a third of the ships were destroyed.
10 The third angel sounded his trumpet, and a great star, blazing like a torch, fell from the sky on a third of the rivers and on the springs of water—
11 the name of the star is Wormwood. A third of the waters turned bitter, and many people died from the waters that had become bitter.
12 The fourth angel sounded his trumpet, and a third of the sun was struck, a third of the moon, and a third of the stars, so that a third of them turned dark. A third of the day was without light, and also a third of the night.
End
This happens before the drying up of the Euphrates river and the marching on Jerusalem. In Rev. 16:12 we are told:
"The sixth angel poured out his bowl on the great river Euphrates, and its water was dried up, to prepare the way for the kings from the east."
end
It seems to me Turkey, a NATO member, may well dry up the Euphrates to hurt Syria and others downstream. No doubt the war is escalating, as is obvious from the above.
China, ostensibly an ally of Russia although a big competitor, may feel it necessary to move into the region to drive out Western forces and aid their floundering Russian allies and to keep the flow of oil and gas feeding their industry and war machine.
Meanwhile,they seem to meet no resistance from the Iranians nor the Iraqis; that suggests they are allied powers friendly to the Chicoms. We KNOW Iran is an ally of Russia, and the Chinese have been making inroads with them.
In 2021 China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia signed the Strategic Partnership Plan, and it is well known they cooperate in BRICKS. Much of this would never have happened had NATO been wound down after the fall of the Soviet Union rather than expanded. And of course we know the official policy of the United States over the last thirty some-odd years has been to build China into a superpower, and it has worked far, far too well. All the Ruling Class lusted after opening a billion plus consumer market and gave no thought to the terrible peril that unleashed. You may remember during the '90's when Clinton's Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright, said it was not good the U.S. was the world's lone superpower. That was how the elitists thought; they wanted us to have a counterbalance, a boogeyman to move us in the direction they wanted us to move. With the fall of the Soviet Union they decided that boogeyman would be china. And like Viktor Frankenstein they created a monster.
So now once again the world is poised on a knife-edge and we are closer to the Apocalypse than ever. Lobbing American missiles into the heart of Russia pushes us that much closer to the End Times and any fool should understand that. But sadly we are not ruled by any fools - we are ruled by spectatcularly foolish fools! I'd love to have had fools in charge!
I wonder; could this Ukraine war lead to a limited nuclear exchange that does enough environmental damage that the events of Revelation are put into motion? Remember, the Bible is particularly prophecying about Israel and her environs. While the ultimate battle will be worldwide and threaten human survival as a species, much of what happens will be centered around Israel. If nukes go off in the Crimean region will fallout drop on Syria and other Middle Eastern regions? Will that poison the waters leading to a big escalation in armed conflict?
It will only be then the Antichrist will be revealed, the "son of perdition". He will make peace between Israel and the Arab world for a short time then turn on Israel, declaring himself God and triggering the Big One. We do not know who the Antichrist is at present.
I had a big argument with a dimwit who claimed Donald Trump was the Antichrist, and I am sure the near miss on Trump only bolstered his belief. But the Bible says he suffered a "mortal head wound" not an ear-nick. And Trump does not fit the description at all. The Antichrist will be the inverse of Jesus. Jesus went to the poor and working class as does Trump, while the Antichrist will undoubtedly go to the rich and powerful. Donald Trump has actually tried to reduce the scope and power of government and appears poised to do so again. The Antichrist will be a man who deifies government. Jesus did not counsel disobedience to government but He told His followers to not take it too seriously as it was but a temporary kingdom. The Antichrist will "He opposes and exalts himself above every so-called god or object of worship, so that he sits in God's temple, proclaiming that he himself is God" as it says in 2Thessalonians 2:4. While Trump has a healthy ego and is a vain man he also has repeatedly paid homage to God, most especially after the assassination attempt on him.
No, the Antichrist comes out of the Progressive Left. It is they who lead the charge against Christ and His Church. It is they who support abortion of God's innocents. It is they who fight for all manner of perversions.
Daniel 11:37 strongly suggests the Antichrist may be homosexual.
"37 Neither shall he regard the God of his fathers, nor the desire of women, nor regard any god: for he shall magnify himself above all."
(Sounds much more like Barack Obama, doesn't it!)
Trump, on the other hand, has great regard for women and regularly surrounds himself with many strong and attractive women. Shoot; Trump owned the Miss America pageant, for crying out loud!
No, Trump is not the Antichrist. But he may well be out there waiting to emerge. Could it be Zelensky? Perhaps. Rocker Ted Nugent called him a homosexual, not that that's an official source. But the rumors have persisted since Volodomor came on the scene. And he has been promoting same sex civil unions in a very straight-laced country. Oh, and The Advocate - a homosexual activist magazine - waxes poetic about Zelensky's LGBTQ bonafides.
If Ukraine is let into NATO and perhaps the E.U. one would find that argument compelling.
But he is just one candidate. I favor a comeback by Barack Obama in some capacity. Maybe he'll wind up in charge of the United Nations? Who knows, but Obama has always set off warning bells in my mind, at least since he became President.
One thing is certain; the Antichrist will be a well educated man, a member of the Intelligentsia, a child of privilege, and unquestionably part of the Progressive movement. He will dismiss God as an anachronism. He will favor destructive but seductive policies, like socialized medicine or rfid tags for individuals, or "gender affirming care" or abortion on demand or euthenasia, or any of the other direct challenges to the Almighty God we've seen from the Left. I can even see how he can "credibly" claim to be God; he'll talk about the new "era of science" and how we are now past the superstitions of religion and that he is the leader into the new, transhuman era. It would be a small step from that to godhood.
Who has tried to strangle the churches? Tweren't the Baptists. We know how they did it during Covid, shutting down religious worship. Trump didn't stop them because that would have been a violation of Federalism and also because Trump was listening to the "experts" at the time - which was Fauci. But Trump never imposed the draconian regulations that Biden would impose as soon as he took office (like firing anyone who refused the clot shot). Certainly Trump didn't shut down religioius worship. That was the Democrats.
At any rate, things seem to be coming to a head and we are in for some very scary, perhaps horrible, times ahead. Maybe not; Trump may put a stop to it with the help of the Almighty (who put him where he is). But Mankind is on probation.
The clock is ticking.
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McConnell Schemes to Thwart Trump
Timothy Birdnow
Mitch "the Bitch" McConnell plots to prevent Trump from getting his cabinet picks.
Yes, the geriatric jello man, not content with retiring with some shred of dignity, is scheming to undermine President Trump even as he has one foot out of the door of the Capitol building.
From the article:
Well, Mr. Trump should send a message to McConnell; he is no longer welcome meddling in Republican or governmental affairs. This sentiment was certainly echoed by Elon Musk's new DOGE:
McConnell has to be made an example of now lest he embolden the same quislings who sabotaged the first Trump Administration. Mr. McConnell no doubt has skeletons lazing about in their bare bones in some closet. I would say perhaps his association with the Chinese could turn up a thing or two that may be considered a bribe.
I don't favor doing this to a fellow Republican but McConnell is begging for it. And I am not suggesting anything be made up about the chinless wonder - just that people who live in houses would be wise not to cast stones, and Mitch has a potato gun full of igneous rocks he is firing.
This signals what I have argued all along; McConnell is retiring from the ceremonial leadership but plans to stay in Washington in a gross parody of Barack Obama so he can meddle from behind the scenes. The old geezer wants to keep his fingers on the puppet strings and will do so no matter how sick or demented he becomes. He is going to have to be retired fully by Trump. Senate Republicans are going to have to give old Mitch the cold shoulder lest they risk the wrath of the new leadership of the GOP. It's sad; he's going to have to become anathema, a tabooo among the Republicans. He could have just retired and been treated as an emeritus leader but now he's going to have to be shunned.
You lost Mitch; give it up already!
Mitch "the Bitch" McConnell plots to prevent Trump from getting his cabinet picks.
Yes, the geriatric jello man, not content with retiring with some shred of dignity, is scheming to undermine President Trump even as he has one foot out of the door of the Capitol building.
From the article:
"Message to Trump Team: ‘There will be no recess appointments,’ Sen. Mitch McConnell said tonight at a Washington gathering,” Mayer wrote on X (formerly Twitter) Sunday evening.
Well, Mr. Trump should send a message to McConnell; he is no longer welcome meddling in Republican or governmental affairs. This sentiment was certainly echoed by Elon Musk's new DOGE:
Mitch McConnell says there will be no "recess appointments” for Trump.
Openly attempting to block Trump’s cabinet picks.
I wonder how much money this old man has laundered and stolen from the American people over the years?
Guess we should check into that. pic.twitter.com/5h7u9pocQN
— DOGE – Department of Government Effeciency Parody (@realdogenews) November 18, 2024
Openly attempting to block Trump’s cabinet picks.
I wonder how much money this old man has laundered and stolen from the American people over the years?
Guess we should check into that. pic.twitter.com/5h7u9pocQN
— DOGE – Department of Government Effeciency Parody (@realdogenews) November 18, 2024
McConnell has to be made an example of now lest he embolden the same quislings who sabotaged the first Trump Administration. Mr. McConnell no doubt has skeletons lazing about in their bare bones in some closet. I would say perhaps his association with the Chinese could turn up a thing or two that may be considered a bribe.
I don't favor doing this to a fellow Republican but McConnell is begging for it. And I am not suggesting anything be made up about the chinless wonder - just that people who live in houses would be wise not to cast stones, and Mitch has a potato gun full of igneous rocks he is firing.
This signals what I have argued all along; McConnell is retiring from the ceremonial leadership but plans to stay in Washington in a gross parody of Barack Obama so he can meddle from behind the scenes. The old geezer wants to keep his fingers on the puppet strings and will do so no matter how sick or demented he becomes. He is going to have to be retired fully by Trump. Senate Republicans are going to have to give old Mitch the cold shoulder lest they risk the wrath of the new leadership of the GOP. It's sad; he's going to have to become anathema, a tabooo among the Republicans. He could have just retired and been treated as an emeritus leader but now he's going to have to be shunned.
You lost Mitch; give it up already!
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Minnesota Dem Charged with Vote Fraud
Timothy Birdnow
High time!
Minnesota Election Judge Faces Felony Charges For Allowing Unregistered People To Vote
Now they need to go into Pennsylvania and get that Bucks county commissioner who openly stated she was breaking the law by counting bad ballots despite a state supreme court order.
We have to stop pussyfooting around with vote theft.
High time!
Minnesota Election Judge Faces Felony Charges For Allowing Unregistered People To Vote
Now they need to go into Pennsylvania and get that Bucks county commissioner who openly stated she was breaking the law by counting bad ballots despite a state supreme court order.
We have to stop pussyfooting around with vote theft.
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Bannon's Trial Postponed
Timothy Birdnow
Well, well,well...
Steve Bannon’s New York Trial Postponed Until After Trump’s Inauguration
Does anyone still think this wasn't political?
Well, well,well...
Steve Bannon’s New York Trial Postponed Until After Trump’s Inauguration
Does anyone still think this wasn't political?
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Communist Summer Camps
Timothy Birdnow
Chinese spy camps for American children.
EXCLUSIVE: Chinese Summer Camps Teach American Kids To Be Like Red Army Soldiers And ‘Little’ Police Officers
And we let them pull this.
When I was a kid summer camp taught swimming and boating and camping skills. My, how times have changed!
Chinese spy camps for American children.
EXCLUSIVE: Chinese Summer Camps Teach American Kids To Be Like Red Army Soldiers And ‘Little’ Police Officers
And we let them pull this.
When I was a kid summer camp taught swimming and boating and camping skills. My, how times have changed!
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November 17, 2024
Republicans Win in Alaska
Timothy Birdnow
Republicans flip the Alaska seat. Now at 220 in the House.
Republicans flip the Alaska seat. Now at 220 in the House.
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Apocalypse How?
Timothy Birdnow
Russia has launched a major drone offensive against Ukraine and the Ukrainians are calling it a "hellish atack".
People no longer have any sense of proportion. 9 deaths does not a "hellish" attack make. In fact on 19 December 1940, almost 3.000 civilians were killed in aerial attacks on London during the Battle of Britain. In fact the whole Battle of Britain saw 23.002 dead and 32.138 wounded civilians. Churchill would have been THRILLED with just nine casualties.
Seems to me the Russians were being quite careful to avoid unnecessary casualties. You can't hell-bomb a nation and not have lots of casualties by being careless.
FTA:
"A massive attack on our country," Zelensky said.
"Over the past week, the aggressor used nearly 140 missiles of various types, more than 900 guided aerial bombs, and over 600 strike drones," he said, accusing Moscow of trying to "intimidate us with cold and blackouts".
end
Yet Mr. Zelensky conveniently forgets he just completed a major drone attack on Russia himself, one that killed 1,500 people. And by the article's own admission a Russian journalist was killed in Ukrainian-occupied Russia by a drone strike from the Ukraine.
Putin is moving swiftly in the hopes he can force a good deal out of Ukraine before Trump takes office. And Zelensky is hoping he can hand on until then. The fact is neither of these guys are worth a red whizz and the sooner we understand that, the sooner we admit there are no good guys in this fight, the better.
Russia has launched a major drone offensive against Ukraine and the Ukrainians are calling it a "hellish atack".
People no longer have any sense of proportion. 9 deaths does not a "hellish" attack make. In fact on 19 December 1940, almost 3.000 civilians were killed in aerial attacks on London during the Battle of Britain. In fact the whole Battle of Britain saw 23.002 dead and 32.138 wounded civilians. Churchill would have been THRILLED with just nine casualties.
Seems to me the Russians were being quite careful to avoid unnecessary casualties. You can't hell-bomb a nation and not have lots of casualties by being careless.
FTA:
"A massive attack on our country," Zelensky said.
"Over the past week, the aggressor used nearly 140 missiles of various types, more than 900 guided aerial bombs, and over 600 strike drones," he said, accusing Moscow of trying to "intimidate us with cold and blackouts".
end
Yet Mr. Zelensky conveniently forgets he just completed a major drone attack on Russia himself, one that killed 1,500 people. And by the article's own admission a Russian journalist was killed in Ukrainian-occupied Russia by a drone strike from the Ukraine.
Putin is moving swiftly in the hopes he can force a good deal out of Ukraine before Trump takes office. And Zelensky is hoping he can hand on until then. The fact is neither of these guys are worth a red whizz and the sooner we understand that, the sooner we admit there are no good guys in this fight, the better.
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The Politics of Personal Destruction at the Pentagon
Timothy Birdnow
Here they Once again, the Democrats are going to deploy the politics of personal destruction and use allegations of sexual misconduct to try to bring down a Trump appointee. This time it is Pete Hegseth, Trump's nominee for Secretary of Defense.
Strangely, a bimbo eruption just erupted right after Trump made his pick. This woman followed the recently divorced Hoseth to his hotel room then told her husband he raped her when caught.
It's odd; none of this was known until after Trump announces his choice. And after the Deep State howls their displeasure.
Here they Once again, the Democrats are going to deploy the politics of personal destruction and use allegations of sexual misconduct to try to bring down a Trump appointee. This time it is Pete Hegseth, Trump's nominee for Secretary of Defense.
Strangely, a bimbo eruption just erupted right after Trump made his pick. This woman followed the recently divorced Hoseth to his hotel room then told her husband he raped her when caught.
It's odd; none of this was known until after Trump announces his choice. And after the Deep State howls their displeasure.
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Selzer Quits
Timothy Birdnow
Ann (alki) Selzer is retiring from polling after her vain attempt to create a Harris bandwagon in Iowa failed miserably.
For those who are unaware, Selzer predicted Iowa by 3% for Harris in her final poll, and she has been accredited with being an extremely accurate pollster by the mainstream media, so there was "joy" in the Democratic ranks (a place not known for joy of any kind). But Trump won bigely - taking 56.21% of the vote. After the election she admitted to weighting her final poll heavily towards Democrats.
Error or intent? I always follow the rule that in politics few things are by chance. It's odd that she found a sudden, dramatic shift in polling just days before the election. I don't believe in happy coincidences, not in politics.
So I'll play aloha on the steel guitar for her!
Ann (alki) Selzer is retiring from polling after her vain attempt to create a Harris bandwagon in Iowa failed miserably.
For those who are unaware, Selzer predicted Iowa by 3% for Harris in her final poll, and she has been accredited with being an extremely accurate pollster by the mainstream media, so there was "joy" in the Democratic ranks (a place not known for joy of any kind). But Trump won bigely - taking 56.21% of the vote. After the election she admitted to weighting her final poll heavily towards Democrats.
Error or intent? I always follow the rule that in politics few things are by chance. It's odd that she found a sudden, dramatic shift in polling just days before the election. I don't believe in happy coincidences, not in politics.
So I'll play aloha on the steel guitar for her!
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False Prophets
Timothy Birdnow
Here's something a little lighter for a Sunday morning. Last night I was surfing channels and Story Television (the minor league ball club for the History Channel) was running an apocalypse day. I watched one episode, and it was discussing Nostradamus, but also a guy named Bruce Bueno de Mesquita. Now, I know a fair amount about Nostradamus and have read his entire treatise "Centuries" and know that while some of his predictions were disturbinglly accurate others were either unintelligible or just plain wrong. For starters, he warned that the AntiChrist would appear in Asia, not Europe, and would do so shortly after the year 2000. In my best Maxwell Smart voice "missed it by THAT much!"
But what interested me was this good mosquito guy. The documentary waxed poetic on his prophetic skills. He was not a seer or prophet though; supposedly he has a computer algorithm that looks at multiple connections and uses math to sort them all out.
Ri-ight.
The first thing I thought of was Isaac Asimov's "psychohistory". Some 20,000 years from now a scientist would invent a form of mathematical sociology that can predict the future given enough people. Modeled on gas theory, you had to have the trillion plus population of the Galactic Empire to make accurate predictions in the Foundation stories. In the stories (they started as short stories in Astounding Science Fiction, but later Asimov wrote several full-length novels where he worked in his other great stories, such as robots and alternate universes).
The point is Asimov, a very smart guy, more or less argued the extreme difficulty of such a science.
Which brings us to this fellow. My first impression of him was a medicine show man, a sort of Professor Waldo Wigglesworth from the old Jay Ward Hoppity Hooper cartoon. He wasn't openly smarmy but he seemed sort of smug. He is a political scientist, professor at New York University, and senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution. Not sure how a political scientist can devise a mathematical model that predicts the future, but he claims it is so.
He also refuses to divulge his methods. That is a YUUUGGe red flag.
Science is about repeatability. If you perform an experiment you have to hand over the details so others may repeat it. And if you have a method that could revolutionize our foreign policy and other policies and it works better than what we are currently doing, don't you owe it to humanity to hand that over?
Supposedly this guy has been a consultant with the government - state department, CIA, etc.
If so, one wonders why we have made so many dreadful mistakes, and why our situation is in far worse shape now than it was in times past. Maybe they ARE taking his advice? That may well be the problem.
Look; we use computer models to predict the weather and those are frequently wrong, and after more than a few days they are usually profoundly wrong. Why? Because the weather is a chaotic system. In fact, Chaos Theory was invented precisely because of a weather prediction program. The inventer of Chaos Theory was a guy named Edward Lorenz from MIT. He got the idea from a weather prediction program that had stopped and restarted the next day. It was found to be WAY off. It was run again with the exact same conditions and gave a wildly different result. It occurred to Lorenz that the weather was a chaotic system, and micro-influences had a drastic effect on the outcome of any such program.
Now, we know many of the variables involved in weather and can take them into account in forecasting. They are mathematically hard numbers; temperature, barometric pressure, humidity, air speed, etc. The problem is they are not absolutes, and it may be a degree cooler just a little ways away from the spot you measure, or it could be raining in one place and not in another. The end result is IN THEORY weather should be Newtonian, easily predicable, a clockwork system. In practice not so much.
But what Bueno de Mosquita is proposing is far, far more complicated as it goes to fundamental human psycghology and sociology that cannot be mathematically modeled. How do you quantify some things, like the public reaction to events? And how do you include extenuating factors? Speaking of weather, the weather will actually influence the outcome of events in some cases. That is a well known phenomenon in elections; bad weather usually means lower turnout and thus the government winds up looking different than it would have had the weather been nice. But there are an infinite number of variables that would have to be quantified and fed into the computer.
Good Mosqquito argues the computer is better at handling large numbers of permutations than are humans and he's right, but they can ONLY handle what is fed into them. They have no judgement. They are at best logical but not reasonable (another point Asimov made in his robot stories; robots often came to terrible conclusions because they weren't reasonable, just machines that crunched numbers).
A model is a simplification of reality by necessity. If you have a model as complex as the thing you are modeling it is useless; you can get the information you want from the thing iself. So we create models that are simpler than that thing and hope we can extrapolate from that. That's where human thinking and intuition comes into play. And of course a model is only as good as the data it is fed, and the assumptions of the programmer often have a huge impact on what the models tell us.
That's why climate models are so bad at predicting events; they have been programmed by the same people using the same assumptions and the same often faulty data. Most climate models, for instance, assume a low climate sensitivity. Most assume the atmosphere has no top (it was easier to just pick a zone in the stratosphere and not go beyond that). Most do not factor in negative feedbacks like cloud formation from evaporated water, etc. These models have failed miserably to predict current conditions, and have failed when fed historical data, yet climate scientists continue to cling to them because they cannot think of anything else to do and because they want that lucrative funding that climate doomsaying provides.
This, I think, is more of the same. This Bueno de Mosqita fellow may have a computer model that he believes is taking everything into account, but it is impossible to program such a model. May as well say you have a computer algorithm that will predict the name and appearance of your future spouse. (Another great example; computer dating has mixed results and always has despite the great advances in computer technology. Computer dating sites can only match up a number of self-identified characteristics and beliefs and find another person who is willing,but they hardly KNOW the people and so mismatch more than they match.)
The article I cited mentions investment aps. Well, if there were such things that actually worked wouldn't there people people exploiting it? You would have wizards of hedge funds who would guarantee huge profits and their clients would clean up. The sad fact is usually when you find such a thing it turns out to be a pyramid scheme or other con.
This guy claims to have a 90% accuracy rate. Pardon me if I sound a bit skeptical. He may be above 50%, which would mean a coin toss, but somehow I doubt he can make any predictions that high. I suspect he gets that number by making a bunch of easy calls that boost his percentage. Hell; I predicted the Russian invasion of Georgia back in '08 just by reading Pravda. Often these things aren't that hard, especially when the crisis is almost upon us. The Ukrainian invasion was fairly predictable too, and our State Department would have known it had they bothered to just read what the Russians were saying and to use basic common sense; Putin saw an opportunity and knew there wouldn't be repercussions. Some things can't be predicted though; I doubt anyone saw the terror attacks on Israel coming, although if this guy's idiot machine predicted some sort of terrorist attack at some point it wouldn't be much of an intellectual stretch.
This guy was talking about Iran in the program I watched and said "we need to de-escalate with Iran. If you push them it will insult their sense of national pride and they will become more aggressive" and yet it was when Mr. Biden de-escalated that Iran became more aggressive - not the other way around. Score one for the Human mind. Every time we've de-escalated with Iran we've seen them re-emerge as bad actors on the world stage.
Sadly a lot of people will probably believe in a guy like this. He has all the right features; he uses computers, writes fancy equations,keeps his supposedly highly successful algorithms secret, and prophecies the future. Humans want to know the future. One of the great stresses in our lives is the fact that we have minds capable of thinking ahead to the future and planning and yet cannot see it. I've heard it argued by some preachers that the fruit from the tree of the knowlede of good and evil was what stole humanity's peace of mind, and that because suddenly we were aware of the dangers of what is to come and had no way to see it coming. I don't know. Certainly one can argue that attempts like this are a kind of modern witchcraft, divination to foretell and to prophecy. There is a reason why the Bible condemns witchcraft (thou shalt not suffer a wtich to live, it says) and if nothing else it leads us to make really bad mistakes and to stop relying on both our own intellects and on God.
That's not to say attempts at predicting the future are necessarily evil. Certainly knowing if a tornado is coming is a good thing. But there is a human tendency to worship things like computers and science, and there is an increasing tendency in the young to believe not in God but in algorithms. That way will ultimately lead to ruin.
So my view is that this guy is a charlatan, like the oracles in the ancient world who had all sorts of gadgets to give the illusion to worshippers of miraculous events. Archaeologists have unearthed many such temples and found they were nothing but illusionist tricks. I think our worship of the machines is a sign of a modern form of sorcery, the kind mentioned in the Book of Revelation "neither would they repent of their sorceries" (Rev.9:21)
Add to that the renewed interest in UFO's (Satan's lying wonders 2 Thessalonians 2:9-12) and belief that men can become women by an act of will, or that men laying with men is "natural" or that "science has disproven God" or any other profoundly ignorant and self-serving ideas believed by our modern world, and one does have to wonder at why God still puts up with us. I would long ago have smote them hip and thigh were I the Almighty. They should count their blessings I am not He.
One final thought; there are no good nosquitoes. The only good mosquito is a dead mosquito. I think the first punishment God visited upon Adam and Eve were those evil little creatures!
Here's something a little lighter for a Sunday morning. Last night I was surfing channels and Story Television (the minor league ball club for the History Channel) was running an apocalypse day. I watched one episode, and it was discussing Nostradamus, but also a guy named Bruce Bueno de Mesquita. Now, I know a fair amount about Nostradamus and have read his entire treatise "Centuries" and know that while some of his predictions were disturbinglly accurate others were either unintelligible or just plain wrong. For starters, he warned that the AntiChrist would appear in Asia, not Europe, and would do so shortly after the year 2000. In my best Maxwell Smart voice "missed it by THAT much!"
But what interested me was this good mosquito guy. The documentary waxed poetic on his prophetic skills. He was not a seer or prophet though; supposedly he has a computer algorithm that looks at multiple connections and uses math to sort them all out.
Ri-ight.
The first thing I thought of was Isaac Asimov's "psychohistory". Some 20,000 years from now a scientist would invent a form of mathematical sociology that can predict the future given enough people. Modeled on gas theory, you had to have the trillion plus population of the Galactic Empire to make accurate predictions in the Foundation stories. In the stories (they started as short stories in Astounding Science Fiction, but later Asimov wrote several full-length novels where he worked in his other great stories, such as robots and alternate universes).
The point is Asimov, a very smart guy, more or less argued the extreme difficulty of such a science.
Which brings us to this fellow. My first impression of him was a medicine show man, a sort of Professor Waldo Wigglesworth from the old Jay Ward Hoppity Hooper cartoon. He wasn't openly smarmy but he seemed sort of smug. He is a political scientist, professor at New York University, and senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution. Not sure how a political scientist can devise a mathematical model that predicts the future, but he claims it is so.
He also refuses to divulge his methods. That is a YUUUGGe red flag.
Science is about repeatability. If you perform an experiment you have to hand over the details so others may repeat it. And if you have a method that could revolutionize our foreign policy and other policies and it works better than what we are currently doing, don't you owe it to humanity to hand that over?
Supposedly this guy has been a consultant with the government - state department, CIA, etc.
If so, one wonders why we have made so many dreadful mistakes, and why our situation is in far worse shape now than it was in times past. Maybe they ARE taking his advice? That may well be the problem.
Look; we use computer models to predict the weather and those are frequently wrong, and after more than a few days they are usually profoundly wrong. Why? Because the weather is a chaotic system. In fact, Chaos Theory was invented precisely because of a weather prediction program. The inventer of Chaos Theory was a guy named Edward Lorenz from MIT. He got the idea from a weather prediction program that had stopped and restarted the next day. It was found to be WAY off. It was run again with the exact same conditions and gave a wildly different result. It occurred to Lorenz that the weather was a chaotic system, and micro-influences had a drastic effect on the outcome of any such program.
Now, we know many of the variables involved in weather and can take them into account in forecasting. They are mathematically hard numbers; temperature, barometric pressure, humidity, air speed, etc. The problem is they are not absolutes, and it may be a degree cooler just a little ways away from the spot you measure, or it could be raining in one place and not in another. The end result is IN THEORY weather should be Newtonian, easily predicable, a clockwork system. In practice not so much.
But what Bueno de Mosquita is proposing is far, far more complicated as it goes to fundamental human psycghology and sociology that cannot be mathematically modeled. How do you quantify some things, like the public reaction to events? And how do you include extenuating factors? Speaking of weather, the weather will actually influence the outcome of events in some cases. That is a well known phenomenon in elections; bad weather usually means lower turnout and thus the government winds up looking different than it would have had the weather been nice. But there are an infinite number of variables that would have to be quantified and fed into the computer.
Good Mosqquito argues the computer is better at handling large numbers of permutations than are humans and he's right, but they can ONLY handle what is fed into them. They have no judgement. They are at best logical but not reasonable (another point Asimov made in his robot stories; robots often came to terrible conclusions because they weren't reasonable, just machines that crunched numbers).
A model is a simplification of reality by necessity. If you have a model as complex as the thing you are modeling it is useless; you can get the information you want from the thing iself. So we create models that are simpler than that thing and hope we can extrapolate from that. That's where human thinking and intuition comes into play. And of course a model is only as good as the data it is fed, and the assumptions of the programmer often have a huge impact on what the models tell us.
That's why climate models are so bad at predicting events; they have been programmed by the same people using the same assumptions and the same often faulty data. Most climate models, for instance, assume a low climate sensitivity. Most assume the atmosphere has no top (it was easier to just pick a zone in the stratosphere and not go beyond that). Most do not factor in negative feedbacks like cloud formation from evaporated water, etc. These models have failed miserably to predict current conditions, and have failed when fed historical data, yet climate scientists continue to cling to them because they cannot think of anything else to do and because they want that lucrative funding that climate doomsaying provides.
This, I think, is more of the same. This Bueno de Mosqita fellow may have a computer model that he believes is taking everything into account, but it is impossible to program such a model. May as well say you have a computer algorithm that will predict the name and appearance of your future spouse. (Another great example; computer dating has mixed results and always has despite the great advances in computer technology. Computer dating sites can only match up a number of self-identified characteristics and beliefs and find another person who is willing,but they hardly KNOW the people and so mismatch more than they match.)
The article I cited mentions investment aps. Well, if there were such things that actually worked wouldn't there people people exploiting it? You would have wizards of hedge funds who would guarantee huge profits and their clients would clean up. The sad fact is usually when you find such a thing it turns out to be a pyramid scheme or other con.
This guy claims to have a 90% accuracy rate. Pardon me if I sound a bit skeptical. He may be above 50%, which would mean a coin toss, but somehow I doubt he can make any predictions that high. I suspect he gets that number by making a bunch of easy calls that boost his percentage. Hell; I predicted the Russian invasion of Georgia back in '08 just by reading Pravda. Often these things aren't that hard, especially when the crisis is almost upon us. The Ukrainian invasion was fairly predictable too, and our State Department would have known it had they bothered to just read what the Russians were saying and to use basic common sense; Putin saw an opportunity and knew there wouldn't be repercussions. Some things can't be predicted though; I doubt anyone saw the terror attacks on Israel coming, although if this guy's idiot machine predicted some sort of terrorist attack at some point it wouldn't be much of an intellectual stretch.
This guy was talking about Iran in the program I watched and said "we need to de-escalate with Iran. If you push them it will insult their sense of national pride and they will become more aggressive" and yet it was when Mr. Biden de-escalated that Iran became more aggressive - not the other way around. Score one for the Human mind. Every time we've de-escalated with Iran we've seen them re-emerge as bad actors on the world stage.
Sadly a lot of people will probably believe in a guy like this. He has all the right features; he uses computers, writes fancy equations,keeps his supposedly highly successful algorithms secret, and prophecies the future. Humans want to know the future. One of the great stresses in our lives is the fact that we have minds capable of thinking ahead to the future and planning and yet cannot see it. I've heard it argued by some preachers that the fruit from the tree of the knowlede of good and evil was what stole humanity's peace of mind, and that because suddenly we were aware of the dangers of what is to come and had no way to see it coming. I don't know. Certainly one can argue that attempts like this are a kind of modern witchcraft, divination to foretell and to prophecy. There is a reason why the Bible condemns witchcraft (thou shalt not suffer a wtich to live, it says) and if nothing else it leads us to make really bad mistakes and to stop relying on both our own intellects and on God.
That's not to say attempts at predicting the future are necessarily evil. Certainly knowing if a tornado is coming is a good thing. But there is a human tendency to worship things like computers and science, and there is an increasing tendency in the young to believe not in God but in algorithms. That way will ultimately lead to ruin.
So my view is that this guy is a charlatan, like the oracles in the ancient world who had all sorts of gadgets to give the illusion to worshippers of miraculous events. Archaeologists have unearthed many such temples and found they were nothing but illusionist tricks. I think our worship of the machines is a sign of a modern form of sorcery, the kind mentioned in the Book of Revelation "neither would they repent of their sorceries" (Rev.9:21)
Add to that the renewed interest in UFO's (Satan's lying wonders 2 Thessalonians 2:9-12) and belief that men can become women by an act of will, or that men laying with men is "natural" or that "science has disproven God" or any other profoundly ignorant and self-serving ideas believed by our modern world, and one does have to wonder at why God still puts up with us. I would long ago have smote them hip and thigh were I the Almighty. They should count their blessings I am not He.
One final thought; there are no good nosquitoes. The only good mosquito is a dead mosquito. I think the first punishment God visited upon Adam and Eve were those evil little creatures!
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at
11:32 AM
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Dems Vow to Ignore the Law
Timothy Birdnow
The Democrats clearly have not learned their lesson as blue state governors and mayors vow to simply ignore immigration law and act as sanctuaries for illegal aliens anyway.
Amazing; they just lost a huge election because of this and yet they plan to double-down on the very thing that cost them so dearly.
They also plan to implement the rest of the Biden/Harris program in their states - you know, the program America just rejected.
The immigration issue is truly astonishing as it shows they care more about remaking the country than they do the citizens. Most people think it is purely political benefit, but I have long argued it is to replace the American People with a more compliant lot. I argued that well before we were hearing the term "replacement theory", and I got the idea from a fellow named Fredo Arias-King, a former top aid to former Mexican President Vicente' Fox. I wrote about Mr. Arias-King's theory here.
Now it's considered an established "conspiracy theory" but how is it a conspiracy theory if it's true? There is no other rational explanation for the Democrats being willing to lose elections to cling to this. (This also explained the Republican eagerness to open the border and keep it open as well; the watering down of the American electorate meant all incumbents would have an easier go of it come re-election time.)
Well, laws are on the books and if Democrats willfully refuse to enforce them the U.S. marshalls should come and take said Democrats away. It's not like these laws were just added to the books; they've been there for years. Trump just plans to enforce them. We've got to stop pussy-footing around with this open lawlessness.
That, of course, is why Biden is desperately trying to get all of his judicial appointees confirmed now; he needs to pack the courts to have a fail-safe to protect the Democrats. We've seen this happen with sanctuary cities, for instance, where Democrat courts have said Trump couldn't withhold federal funds from them or remove government facilities from their states for their willful refusal to obey the law. They need these partisans in black robes in power to throw a monkey wrench in the works.
There's a new sheriff in town folks, and with the popular support of the People. Learn or go under!
The Democrats clearly have not learned their lesson as blue state governors and mayors vow to simply ignore immigration law and act as sanctuaries for illegal aliens anyway.
Amazing; they just lost a huge election because of this and yet they plan to double-down on the very thing that cost them so dearly.
They also plan to implement the rest of the Biden/Harris program in their states - you know, the program America just rejected.
The immigration issue is truly astonishing as it shows they care more about remaking the country than they do the citizens. Most people think it is purely political benefit, but I have long argued it is to replace the American People with a more compliant lot. I argued that well before we were hearing the term "replacement theory", and I got the idea from a fellow named Fredo Arias-King, a former top aid to former Mexican President Vicente' Fox. I wrote about Mr. Arias-King's theory here.
Now it's considered an established "conspiracy theory" but how is it a conspiracy theory if it's true? There is no other rational explanation for the Democrats being willing to lose elections to cling to this. (This also explained the Republican eagerness to open the border and keep it open as well; the watering down of the American electorate meant all incumbents would have an easier go of it come re-election time.)
Well, laws are on the books and if Democrats willfully refuse to enforce them the U.S. marshalls should come and take said Democrats away. It's not like these laws were just added to the books; they've been there for years. Trump just plans to enforce them. We've got to stop pussy-footing around with this open lawlessness.
That, of course, is why Biden is desperately trying to get all of his judicial appointees confirmed now; he needs to pack the courts to have a fail-safe to protect the Democrats. We've seen this happen with sanctuary cities, for instance, where Democrat courts have said Trump couldn't withhold federal funds from them or remove government facilities from their states for their willful refusal to obey the law. They need these partisans in black robes in power to throw a monkey wrench in the works.
There's a new sheriff in town folks, and with the popular support of the People. Learn or go under!
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at
10:22 AM
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Taking Their Ball and Going Home
Timothy Birdnow
Don't let the door hit your gluteous maximus on the way out!
Great: Some Federal Employees Considering Mass Quitting in Protest
I wish it were nott just SOME talking about leaving; I want them all to just go. But of course these are people who could not possibly hold a real job.
Don't let the door hit your gluteous maximus on the way out!
Great: Some Federal Employees Considering Mass Quitting in Protest
I wish it were nott just SOME talking about leaving; I want them all to just go. But of course these are people who could not possibly hold a real job.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at
09:55 AM
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