Birdnow's Aviary

May 19, 2026

NY Times Poll Says Democrats are Going to Cream Republicans in Midterms

Timothy Birdnow

In my best Spencer Tracy Voice "Ri-ight".

Poll: Dems Lead Republicans Ahead of 2026 Midterms

FTA:

Democrats hold an early advantage over Republicans in voter preferences ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll released Monday.

The survey found that 50% of respondents said they would support the Democrat candidate if the general election for Congress were held today, compared with 39% who said they would back the Republican candidate in their district.

Another 11% said they did not know or did not answer.

This is clearly a push poll designed to get these sorts of results to dispirit the GOP. I do not believe this for a New York Minute.

Anything involving the New York Times is bogus.

I would add repeated polling shows that the public hates the Democrats worse than they hate the GOP if that is possible. So why do they plan to vote for them now?

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More Fraud from Democrats

Timothy Birdnow

Even more little "irregularities" by the Democrats:

LA woman illegally paid homeless people to register to vote — including at her own address: Feds

The penalty for the single felony charge (despite this woman being caught on camera doing this multiple times) has a maximum sentence of five years. Bet she gets less then two, maybe less than one. I'll bet she's out in six months. Then she'll get a promotion by the Democratic Party and set up well.

Until we start really nailing people for this kind of thing it will just keep happening.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 09:07 AM | Comments (2) | Add Comment
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"Mistake" in Maryland Ballots Leave Half a Million Extra Ballots on the Loose

Timothy Birdnow

Donald Trump called out the state of Maryland over an "error" in mail-in ballots sent out to half a million voters. The state plans to issue another half million "correct" ballots.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/trump-to-seek-doj-investigation-of-mail-in-ballot-error-in-maryland-6027707?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=BonginoReport&src_src=partner&src_cmp=BonginoReport

Trump rightly called this out as an attempt to steal the state. He's right:

"In Maryland, they sent out 500,000 Illegal Mail In Ballots, and they got caught! So now, they’re going to send out 500,000 more Mail In Ballots, but nobody knows what’s happening with the first 500,000 they sent.

"[Moore] allowed this to happen in order to make sure that Democrats win. It never made sense to me that Maryland was considered an automatic Democrat State, but now I see why. I’m sure this has gone on for years,” the president wrote.

[...]

"I’m very concerned about mail-in ballots,” he said. "Mail-in ballot is, by just the nature of it, it’s going to be corrupt. So many people handle it.”

"When they were caught, they said, ‘Oh, we'll pull them back,’ and they issued 500,000 new ballots, and, as you know, they never got the original ballots back, so there are a million ballots out there. Many of them went to Democrats, and it’s a very serious thing,” he said.

This is one of the reasons the Carter Baker Commission strongly recommended against the use of mail-in ballots; too many hands on them, too much opportunity for fraud. But the Democrats didn't not listen to their own Jimmy Carter over the matter - they used his report as a blueprint for stealing elections.

Democrats have been stealing huge numbers of offices for years now and if we had free and fair elections they would be a minority party - solidly in the minority. It's so close because we let them run hog wild with vote fraud and until Trump nobody would complain. That was, in part, caused by a plea agreement from 184 where a Republican activist in Texas pulled a fast one, telling black voters the election date had changed. The GOP pleaded no contest, and signed this agreement that did not allow them to ever challenge the Democrats on vote fraud. The supervising judge retired but he came out of retirement whenever the agreement was up for renewal just to keep it in place. Trump finally had enough and told them to pound sand and it stuck. But the GOP spent42 years letting the Donkeys steal elections and they are terrified to take action even now.

Cheating metastasized with the election of 2000. The Democrats tried desperately to steal Florida (under the weak and low T Governor Jeb! Bush) and failed. It was in their minds the last time they would ever fail; they set about building a machine that could not lose. They pretty much succeeded too but Trump slipped by and now he's systematically dismantling it.

It's not gone yet as we see with this story, but it's on the run.

If we break this machine we'll be able to roll back the wreckage left from Democratic power. Their power was never legitimate in the first place.

Godspeed Mr. Trump!

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How Brian Kemp Screwed America

Timothy Birdnow

I knew it! Kemp helped the Democrats with the steal in 2020.

Georgia Investigators Killed 2020 Election Probe At Kemp’s Request, Unsealed Testimony Claims

Inspector Governor Kemp and Sec. State Ratfinkbooger colluded to screw Trump out of the Presidency and thus get in good with the Establishment wing of the GOP.

I've always been convinced Kemp was playing a very duplicitous game. It's a shame he's so popular in Georgia that he can't be taken down.

(FYI Inspector Kemp was the crazy German guy in Young Frankenstein who had the wooden arm and who was immortalized with the line "a riot is an ugly thing...and it's about time we had one!")

FTA:

Some of the most eye-opening testimony came from former U.S. Senator David Perdue. In 103 pages, he described handing Georgia Bureau of Investigation (GBI) Director Vic Reynolds a packet of evidence in May 2021 that Reynolds himself called "compelling” enough to investigate. The materials — "Video evidence and cell phone evidence, along with testimony and bank records that are corroborated,” as Perdue characterized it — had been compiled by True the Vote.

The group’s ballot-trafficking investigation had been highly controversial, drawing sharp criticism from some election officials and media outlets. Nevertheless, Perdue testified under oath that Reynolds initially viewed the evidence as compelling enough to warrant a full investigation. Perdue also pushed back during the session when prosecutor Nathan Wade questioned him about prior probes that had purportedly cleared the matter, replying that those investigations were "not to my satisfaction.”

Six months later, in November 2021, Reynolds called Perdue back. According to Perdue’s sworn account, Reynolds first told him "the governor wants me to tell you why we’re not going to investigate,” then delivered the blunt political rationale: "We’re not going to investigate because … I’m a team player. If the governor doesn’t want to investigate, we’re not going to investigate.”

So it was the Republican Governor who spiked the vote fraud investigation in the great state of Georgia. Just a few thousand votes would have given Trump the state and the Presidency. Brian Kemp is responsible for the tragedy and crime that was the Biden Administration.

The article continues:

Perdue also noted on the record that Reynolds received a promotion to Superior Court Judge of Cobb County shortly after the grand-jury session — a move that made election watchdogs suspicious and fueled a broader pattern of concern among conservative observers. The transcripts don’t prove motive, but they do make the timeline impossible to ignore.

So the Honorable Brian Kemp bought off Reynolds for a job well done. He clearly wanted the whole matter brushed under the rug. Now why do you suppose that was?

At the time, both Kemp and Raffensperger were rumored to have political considerations of their own. Raffensperger’s gubernatorial aspirations were well-known to his close supporters in 2018 before he was even elected as secretary of state, and he is currently a candidate for the office. Meanwhile, Gov. Kemp, a former two-term secretary of state himself, was and still is rumored to be considering a campaign for president in 2028. Critics claim they, and their lieutenants, were more concerned with protecting their political legacies and future aspirations than they were with protecting the integrity of our elections.

So the Laurel and Hardy of Georgia were more concerned with their futures, and with Kemp that future lay inside the beltway, he hoped. No room for any controversy on his watch!

I ascribe darker motives. I think Kemp in particular wanted to appease the GOP Ruling Class to buy their backing. I suspect he thought Trump was finished one way or another and so he was happy to toss Mr. Trump under the Greyhound to clear the way for his Presidential ambitions. The GOP Establishment had been trying every bit as hard as the Democrats to rid America of Donald J. Trump and Kemp was happy to climb upon that beautiful new White Star Line luxury ship bound from Ireland to America. Problem is, now there's a honky big iceberg in the way...

I hope more breaks on this story. I want to know who Kemp was colluding with, who he was talking to and making promises to. I suspect he made a deal with the GOPe. I want to flush these cockroaches out.

Bringing this out is a good start.

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May 18, 2026

No Play Violence - Violence for Real

Timothy Birdnow

Scrolling through the Bongino report I noticed two stories which dovetail with each-other (and I don't think that was intentional from the editor) and those stories make a fundamental point about the human condition - particularly about the male human condition - and the evolution of our society.

First, actress Juliane Moore has decided she will not be in movies with violence and explosions any longer.

"I don’t like someone being murdered. I don’t like explosions and guns. I don’t like histrionics. I don’t like things that raise the stakes without real feeling underneath," she said. "I mean, that actually bothers me because that’s like noise. I don’t know how to play it. I don’t want to watch it."

Her choice of course and that is fine if she doesn't want to play in such films. I respect that. She has every right. But I think she is rather naive, or at least doesn't understand the role such movies play in society and why they are important.

Which brings us to the second article which is about the Star Wars franchise and why the Kathleen Kennedy sequals are losing so many fans.

The Real Reason so Many Star Wars Fans are Walking Away

The upshot of this essay is Kennedy rejected the male-oriented space opera approach to the genre' in favor of a more feminine style with more emphasis on the mysticism of the Force and stressing characters and more complexity.

But that isn't what Star Wars was and it is not why the movies succeeded in the first place. Star Wars was a throwback to an earlier time in filmmaking, where the good guys were easily identified, the bad guys were bad, there was right and wrong, good and evil, and the two fought. Young boys watched enthralled as the rebels resisted the evil Empire, fighting with bombs and ray guns and cool spaceships. Han Solo was beloved because he was a crazed fighter who turned to attack against overwhelming odds. The hero stood firm and proud and got the girl in the end.

Granted George Lucas had weakened that a bit with his turning of Darth Vader into the hero in the end, but the original three, and even their prequals, still kept the basic thread.

My point? Movies with violence, with shooting and action, have a special appeal to young boys and men more than to women, but they appeal to many women as well and that for a good reason. In life you can't go shooting up people. Boys in particular have their aggressions, their natural biologically based need to fight against other cave men and saber-toothed tigers and Mastadons, are suppessed by civilization. Theatrical violence is cathartic to them; it gives them an outlet that lets them blow off the steam from the suppression of their base urges.

Girls need this far less than do boys, but they need it too.

The problem is the Leftist view of human nature. They believe it is malleable, easily changed through social conditioning. If they rid the imagery that shows things they do not like they think the public's view will follow. To liberals everything is about social conditioning; if they can control the narrative, control the images seen by people, they can simply eliminate things they do not like - like aggression or anger or social grouping, or anything else.

That is what Kennedy did to Star Wars; she turned it from a morality play about virtue and strength and the warrior ethos into a different kind of morality play, one that emphasized virtues, certainly, but not ones that appeal to boys, who need an outlet for the things they are forced to suppress.

Play of any kind serves that purpose, as well as training for adult life. Little boys will make their fingers into guns if they have no toy guns and we are always hearing about crazy liberal school marms calling in the police because a kid pointed his finger and said "bang~" They want the boys playing with dolls and tea cups. But Nature and Nature's God didn't make them want to play with such things; the role of the male is protection and supplying food - both skills that require strength and a warrior ethos.

Those tendencies need to be guided into healthy outlets, not suppressed. Action movies supply those very outlets.

So Moore and Kennedy are suffering from the same misguided view, that violence on t.v. and in movies automatically leads to violence in real life. Research on video gaming shows this isn't true. On the contrary, it almost certainly leads to LESS violence as kids are able to get it out of their systems.

At any rate our society has turned far to pacifistic and we are already paying for that. School violence is way up despite "no tolerance" rules imposed by idiot school administrators and busy-body teachers. When kids could watch cowboy and Indian movies, or movie about gangsters, or other things with faux violence there was less violence in the real world. Now we ban play-act violence and then are horrified violence is breaking out all over.

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Illegal Alien Mayor Arrested for Voting in Elections

Timothy Birdnow

We were told illegal aliens do not vote. Guess this guy didn't get the memo:

Yahoo News

@YahooNews

The former mayor of a conservative Kansas town was taken into custody by immigration authorities Wednesday after acknowledging last year that he had voted in elections despite not being a U.S. citizen. https://yahoo.com/news/articles/immigration-authorities-detain-former-kansas-101005805.html?taid=6a05fc609f7c1d0001bc9c11&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 12:20 PM | Comments (2) | Add Comment
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How to Use Graphs to Lie

Timothy Birdnow

Below are two graphs of the same temperature data. Notice how one shows a dramatic increase in temperature while the other shows what nature is really doing. This is how the Gang Green blows hot smoke up our posteriors:

IV]/*[1][self:

IV]/*[2][self::ASIDE]/*[1][self:

IV]/*[6][self::SECTION]/*[2][self::A]/*[1][self::IMG]" width="480" height="310" src="https://wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/GISS-vs-HumanTemp2.webp" class="image wp-image-10354629 attachment-full size-full" alt="" style="max-width: 100%; height: auto;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" srcset="https://wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/GISS-vs-HumanTemp2.webp 480w, https://wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/GISS-vs-HumanTemp2-300x194.webp 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 480px) 100vw, 480px" data-attachment-id="10354629" data-permalink="https://wattsupwiththat.com/giss-vs-humantemp2/" data-orig-file="https://wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/GISS-vs-HumanTemp2.webp" data-orig-size="480,310" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="GISS-vs-HumanTemp2" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-large-file="https://wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/GISS-vs-HumanTemp2.webp" />

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Pope to Address AI

Timothy Birdnow

This guy NEEDS artificial intelligence; he lacks any on his own.

Pope Creates Artificial Intelligence Study Group as Vatican Prepares to Release His First Encyclical

actually the Papacy does need to address AI but I fear this Pope probably doesn't understand it and will approach this from a ridiculous and probably idiotic left-wing stance.

In fact it's way too early for him to make any sort of reasonable guidance on AI as we still don't really know what it is we have wrought and how it will impact our lives.

I don't know what the Pope will say when he releases his encyclical, but I suspect it will be at the service of governmental power and international "rules based" systems. He's an internationalist, promoting world government - the kingdom of The Beast.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 10:51 AM | Comments (1) | Add Comment
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Blanche: Proof the '24 Election was Stolen

Timothy Birdnow

Acting AG Todd Blanche says the quiet part out loud:

‘American People Will Learn About What We Uncovered’: Acting AG Blanche Says There’s a ‘Ton of Evidence’ 2020 Election Was Rigged

I personally believe there is smoking gun evidence it was rigged and I hope it is released to the public so we all will know just how corrupt the Ruling Class truly is and how much Washington runs the country for itself on it's own terms and how we the People are just an inconvenience to them.

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Robot Uprising

Timothy Birdnow

The robot uprising has come!

Robotaxi Rebellion: 50 Waymo Self-Driving Cars Circle Atlanta Neighbor

What is it they are plotting? What nefarious purpose is behind their meeting?

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Cassidy Goes the Way of the Dodo

Timothy Birdnow

RINO Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana got creamed by Trump-endorsed primary challengers Julia Letlow (who won 44.8% of the vote) and John Fleming (283%). Cassidy came in decidedly third at 24.8%). The INCUMBENT came in last place despite having a very large war chest!

Bill Cassidy was one of a handful of Republicans who voted to convict Donald Trump during his second impeachment. Mr. Trump naturally endorsed Letlow.

Of the seven RINO's who voted to convict Mr. Trump in his second impeachment only Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska are still in the Senate; the rest were booted by angry constituents.

So suck on that NeverTrumpers!

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Rising Africa - American Opportunity

Timothy Birdnow

Africa is the next land of opportunity. It has rising population, rising prosperity, and a vast wealth of minerals that modern technology requires. China has been sniffing around Africa for decades now. But it is America that is in the driver's seat in the Dark Continent if we have the wisdom and foresight to take advantage of a golden opportunity.

Or so argues this essay at The Daily Caller.

I've long agreed; we are going to see Africa rise in the next fifty years. While dirt poor and politically unstable the continent has been quietly positioning (not purposely, mind you) for a major growth spurt. The material is there. the manpower is there. Prosperity will help stabilize the governments in Africa, which will go a long, long way to helping these places develop.

China has been lending money to Africa - lots of money - and the terms of repayment are usurious. That is just one place we should be stepping in; we can offer a "bill consolidation loan" to some of these struggling countries (the author mentions Kenya in particular) that are better deals to them - and cut the Chicoms out. We can give most favored nation status to African countries that export products to the U.S. There are lots of things we can do to increase our influence there.

There are a few things that we must keep in mind. After the Meiji Restoration (when the Emperor returned as the governing power in Japan over the Tokugawa shogunate) Japan found itself backward and, frankly, starving. The first thing they did to modernize their country was to modernize it's agricultural practices. Not build industries, not build up it's army, but find a way to feed it's people first. Africa is in that shape now; they are struggling to feed their own people. We have to work wih friendly African nations to build up their agricultural base, and not just their cash crop base (which is what the West largely did - building coffee plantations and the like) to assure the people are well fed. It worked beautifully in Japan; within years they were building up their industries and ended up fighting a war with Russia and winning - the first time in modernity that a modern European nation lost to an Asian regional power. It all started with agricultural reform.

We have to remember that transportation is the key to accessing those markets, and that means we have to invest in infrastructure.

We have to find ways to stabilize the governments there. That is easier said than done but we know who the trouble-makers are.

Frankly, what is needed most in Africa are Christian missionaries. Africa is pagan and increasingly Islamic. That has to stop, the conversions (ofren forced) of people to Islam. We've got to win that fight. Christianity is one of the most civilizing things ever seen on this Earth. Islamization is always more attractive to warring pagans because it excuses or downright supports some things - multiple wives and free sex, a warrior culture that believes in taking rather than making, slavery, etc. But it is Christianity that produces a society that creates and builds and is stable not based on force. Even if our official position is "separation of church and state" it is in our interests for Africans to become Christians and not Muslims - or stay animists, killing their neighbors because they think they "bewitched" them.

We reject religion and spirituality these days because we have a national religion - a Western World religion, which is secularism. Mussolini won; the State is now the Church and "democracy" is our god. But a poor god it is. So we ignore the spiritual impulses of people and work within a materialist framework. It fails because human beings know deep down there is more than just the material. This is why our policies in places like Africa fail; we are fishing with the wrong bait.

So even if we ourselves don't believe it, there is great strategic value in promoting Christianity overseas, particularly in Africa.

At some distant point in the future Africa will be a great center of power and wealth. We can either recognize that fact now and work to shape it in a good fashion or keep pretending it won't be so and let the Chinese do the shaping. Do we really want a world shaped by the tyrants in Beijing?

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The Last Roundup

Timothy Birdnow

As regular readers know years ago I penned an article showing that the Left was plotting against glyphosates - the principle ingredient in the weedkiller Roundup - and I quote a mainstream journalist who found environmental activists altered the WHO report - which had originally said there was no evidence these chemicals caused cancer.

Well, Steven Milloy, Founder of Junk Science, agres with me.

Milloy states:

Radical green groups began opposing Roundup in the 1990s as part of their campaign against genetical engineered (GMO) crops. So-called "Roundup Ready” crops were engineered to withstand the application of Roundup to crops, thereby increasing crop yields.

Though the campaign against GMOs largely failed, the radical green groups kept attacking Roundup, even though it had passed scrutiny by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under seven presidential administrations, Republican and Democrat.

That’s an impressive feat as EPA staff is known for being anti-pesticide and, in my experience, has no compunction about changing the rules to ban pesticides that become politically incorrect, which Roundup certainly has.

The greens had success in getting Roundup in the crosshairs of the United Nations’ International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC, pronounced "eye-ark”). In 2015, IARC concluded that Roundup’s key ingredient, glyphosate, was "probably carcinogenic.” No other regulatory body in the world before or since has made that determination.

And once this designation was made the mainstream media ran with it, and now it is the conventional wisdom. There is scant reliable science to back up the claim.

Milloy goes on:

While activist groups and trial lawyers are easy to blame for the threat posed to this safe and invaluable chemical, I lay the blame for this situation at the feet of the chemical industry. Decades ago, the chemical industry stopped vigorous factual defense in the media of its products in favor of feel-good messaging.

It’s easy to scare people about things they don’t understand, like pesticides. But the industry’s ongoing failure to defend its own products, especially in the face of aggressive attackers, is inexcusable.

Yep. And why did they do that? They did it because they saw how the tobacco companies got annihilated by defending THEIR own product and hoped to avoid those same kinds of mistakes. (Oil and gas companies now face a similar threat.) It's craven but the chemical companies figure they can earn good will and this will protect them, that the environmentalist wackos will go elsewhere for fun and the trial lawyers will seek a softer target. But that is merely hoping you get eaten last; the only way to take on this hydra is to face them and fight them. THEN they may move on to a softer target. The humble porcupine has few creatures that predate on it. Same holds true for skunks.

The attack on glyphosates is a crime against humanity. It will lead to reductions in crop yields, killing the poor in the Third World as prices for food skyrocket. The Gang Green pursues this as they would pursue any "forbidden work of Man" as somehow unnatural and anything they can do to reduce the human footprint on the Earth is to them the ultimate good. Human beings are just an unfortunate casualty, but you have to break a few eggs to make an omelet.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 08:39 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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The Sophistry of Climate Alarmism

Timothy Birdnow

I had an astonishing interaction with a Gang Green on a climate change group on Facebook. I pointed out the decline in cloud cover was in direct opposition to the models and at odds with what they all said would happen and this guy actually argued that warming leads to fewer clouds. I was doumbfounded; how do you answer someone so dense?

Where does the extra water vapor go? There are two options; it condenses into clouds then falls as rain or it just falls as rain right away. But there is zero evidence for increased rainfall worldwide, and fewer clouds than in the past decades.

What goes up must come down; this water vapor can't just sit there in the atmosphere. At best it will fall in greater amounts at the poles and on the winter side of the planet; we would see greater precipitation during winter everywhere. We don't.

This is, in this man's view, a kind of magic trick; warming evaporates water but it magically disappears.

I accused him of moving the goalposts as the early IPCC reports said there would be more precipitation and more cloud cover and now they are ducking that assessment. I think this guy knows it too.

I would add that, if this is the case, we have absolutely nothing to fear from the extra carbon dioxide. The whole argument over climate sensitivity is over the feedbacks and the core point made by the alarmists is that the evaporation of water vapor (the Earth's primary greenhouse gas) will lead to more carbon dioxide then more water vapor and then the permafrost will melt and discharge large amounts of methane. But the key is the water vapor. If as you say there are fewer clouds and we can't find the water vapor hanging about then the whole positive feedback loop breaks down.

Claiming there would be a decrease in cloud cover from warming and no increased precipitation is just silly.

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May 17, 2026

IPCC Admit Their Assumptions on Emissions are Wrong

Timothy Birdnow

The IPCC's RPC 8.5 was way over the top and now the U.N. boss hog is admitting that

Roger Pielke Jr. explains why and calls the correction long overdue:

Roger Pielke Jr.: "The correction came far too slowly”

Now that the extreme climate scenario RCP 8.5 has finally been abandoned, the debate has shifted significantly, says Roger Pielke Jr. The American researcher recently gave an interview to the Global Warming Policy Foundation.

Roger Pielke Jr.: "The correction came far too slowly”,

Roger Pielke Jr. in conversation with the GWPF

Clintel Foundation

Date: 16 May 2026

SHARE:

Roger Pielke Jr.’s recent conversation with the Global Warming Policy Foundation begins off course with what he describes as one of the most important developments in climate science and policy in recent years: the effective "death” of the emission scenario known as RCP 8.5.

You can see the full interview here:

For more than a decade, this scenario formed the backbone of many of the world’s most alarming climate projections. It shaped scientific research, government policy, financial regulation, infrastructure planning, media coverage, and public understanding of climate change. According to Pielke, the gradual abandonment of RCP 8.5 represents not merely a technical adjustment within climate modeling, but a profound correction to the assumptions that have dominated climate discourse for years.

Assumptions

Pielke begins by explaining the central role that socioeconomic scenarios play in climate science. Climate models do not simply project future temperatures on their own; they require assumptions about how human societies will evolve over decades. "Climate models run first and foremost on inputs from socioeconomic scenarios.” These scenarios attempt to estimate future population growth, economic development, technological innovation, energy systems, and patterns of fuel use. Because none of these variables can be predicted with certainty, climate scientists rely on multiple scenarios representing different possible futures.

The Representative Concentration Pathways, or RCPs, were developed more than twenty years ago as standardized emissions trajectories for climate modeling. Four main pathways were created: RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, with the numbers corresponding to different levels of radiative forcing by the year 2100. RCP 2.6 roughly aligned with ambitious climate mitigation goals and lower warming outcomes, while RCP 8.5 represented the highest-emissions future, associated with approximately 5°C of warming by the end of the century.

Over time, however, RCP 8.5 evolved far beyond its original role as a stress-test scenario. It increasingly became treated as the default "business-as-usual” future — the world that would emerge if governments failed to take aggressive climate action. Pielke argues that this transformation had enormous consequences. "If you see a headline about how climate change is going to affect society… odds are it’s going to be based on RCP 8.5,” he observes. Even people unfamiliar with the technical terminology were constantly exposed to conclusions generated from this extreme scenario.

Never plausible

According to Pielke, the influence of RCP 8.5 spread well beyond academic climate science. Governments incorporated it into adaptation planning, financial regulators embedded it into banking stress tests, and engineers used it to inform decisions about infrastructure, flood defences, airports, and urban planning. The scenario became deeply institutionalized across the developed world. Its assumptions shaped not only scientific papers but also political rhetoric and public fear about climate change.

The central problem, Pielke argues, is that RCP 8.5 was never a plausible representation of likely future emissions. The scenario relied on assumptions that increasingly diverged from real-world energy trends. In particular, it assumed a massive expansion of coal use throughout the twenty-first century, including the replacement of cleaner energy sources with coal-derived fuels. The scenario effectively envisioned a world that abandoned trends already underway toward natural gas, nuclear energy, and renewables.

Pielke explains that research led by his colleague Justin Ritchie demonstrated years ago that these assumptions were unrealistic. "That theory is wrong,” Pielke says bluntly. The world was not moving toward a coal-dominated future and likely never had been. Yet despite growing evidence against the scenario, RCP 8.5 remained deeply embedded in climate research and public communication for nearly a decade after the first major critiques appeared.

A few years ago the IPCC quietly upated it's AR5 report and admitted climate sensitivity was not as high as they claimed, particularly on the low end of the scale (in other word s there was less warming in the nighttime lows. Now we have this.

These are the last days of global warming which is why the Gang Green is out in force. I love it!

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May 16, 2026

I.D. Required - for a Campaign Event

Timothy Birdnow

The hypocrisy is simply breathtaking.

Democrat Roy Cooper Required ID for Campaign Event but Opposes SAVE America Act

So Stooper Cooper doesn't open his events to the general public, just those he authorizes, but he wants voting to be unrestricted, with anyone from anywhere being able to walk right in and vote.

People at his level in society are not that thick. He knows exactly what he is doing.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 11:04 AM | Comments (2) | Add Comment
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Say Goodnight Cassidy!

Timothy Birdnow

Here is a fine essay on the trouble Louisiana's Republican RINO Bill Cassidy - one of the cretins who voted to convict President Trump during his impeachment - is facing in the land of Carville.

As the essay points out, Cassidy is operating from the old model which avoided any accountability. Before the rise of the internet, before podcasts and blogs and Fox News and Newsmax and talk radio, this model worked well; govern as a brown-noser to the Democrats and get the media to love you, then turn hard-right as election time nears and drape yourself in the flag and Ronald Reagan. Then as soon as you win you revert to the anal kissing and flip your constituents the bird.

It used to work and money covered up your sins.

It was a sweet gig! You enjoyed money, power, fame, prestige. You got invited to the swankest parties. You had people hanging on your every word. And you knew that once in you would always have a great source of revenue one way or another. It was a golden ticket.

I've long argued that the Establishment GOP has always sought to keep Congress on a knife-edge, to keep the two parties near parity, because they then can argue that the public dare not turn out the RINO's lest they lose control of Congress - or fall farther behind. So for decades we've had to hold our noses and vote for clowns like Cassidy and Cornyn lest the Democrats take those seats. Meanwhile the GOP Establishment can play footsie with the Democrats and enjoy the perks of being the Big Man in D.C. And in fact many Republicans prefer to actually be in the minority - less work and better press. They want the goodies but not the responsibility that goes with it.

Christ took our stripes so we didn't have to. That is the model for leadership; doing the hard things, taking the arrows of the enemy, so the People do not have to. RINO Republicans aren't leaders; they are self-seeking scoundrels who use their positions for their own benefit and come home to blow smoke rings to the public at election time. Many would never return to their home states at all if they had their druthers.

The truth will out and especially now that we have the means to remind everyone. You can't keep playing the same con game on the same people forever.

So the "honorable" Mr. Cassidy is now facing early retirement and he is no doubt frantic to hold on, as almost every scumbag in D.C. seems to be. Nobody wants to lose that gig. The fact is if these were leaders, if they were truly serving the public, they would want to quit, want to go home. It would be too much work and too much trouble. The fact that so many are so desperate to stay in the swamp is proof they have no business representing the public in government. They do not serve the public - the serve themselves.

Say goodnight Cassidy!

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 10:46 AM | Comments (3) | Add Comment
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Out with the Old

Timothy Birdnow

Anyone remember the British spy show "The Prisoner"? "I am the new Number 2":

Tonight, at my direction, brave American forces and the Armed Forces of Nigeria flawlessly executed a meticulously planned and very complex mission to eliminate the most active terrorist in the world from the battlefield. Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, second in command of ISIS globally, thought he could hide in Africa, but little did he know we had sources who kept us informed on what he was doing. He will no longer terrorize the people of Africa, or help plan operations to target Americans. With his removal, ISIS’s global operation is greatly diminished. Thank you to the Government of Nigeria for your partnership on this operation. GOD BLESS AMERICA!

President DONALD J. TRUMP

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 09:47 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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DEI Doing Just Fine

Timothy Birdnow

DEI is alive and well at Penn State despite orders from the Trump Administration to put an end to this sort of indoctrination.

All law students have to attend a racial sensitivity course, meaning they have to study DEI thinking. These are the future lawyers, judges, and politicians.

But then, what did we expect from the school that gave us Michael "Hockey Stick" Mann?

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 09:43 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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I Don't Know Much about Art...

Timothy Birdnow

Maybe deep down most people feel impressionism is actually crap.

A Funny Thing Happened when a Guy Posted a Monet Online and Told People it was AI

It is funny and I read the criticisms which were heaped upon the allegedly AI generated piece with not just a little agreement. Does that say something about the public? Does it say that a lot of people are just stuffed shirt poseurs? Or did they actually critique this thing honestly and is that then an indictment of Monet and the art critics who immortalized him?

I suspect many people in their hearts feel impressionism is crap and was a con by mediocre talents.

Impressionism was the beginning oof the collapse of art which has now come to complete fruiting in our degenerate and decaying society. We've gone from beauty and meaning to kindergarten crayon scribbles and an almost worship of ugly or overblown artwork which does little but make a lot of money from the pretentious.

Artwork mirrors the soul of a society. Ours has degenerated into a cesspool, and that started with the impressionism of the nineteenth century as the Western mind became unmoored from God and from any sense of our place in the cosmos.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 09:24 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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