November 05, 2018

Rasmussen has House in a Dead Heat

Timothy Birdnow

The Rasmussen Report argues that a silent Red wave may be coming.

From the report:

"Just as in 2016, Democrats are more outspoken about how they’re going to vote in the upcoming elections than Republicans and unaffiliated voters are.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 60% of Likely Democratic Voters say they are more likely to let others know how they intend to vote this year compared to previous congressional elections. This compares to 49% of Republicans and 40% of voters not affiliated with either major political party. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

In August 2016, 52% of Democrats were more likely to let others know how they intended to vote in the upcoming presidential election, compared to 46% of Republicans and 34% of unaffiliated voters. Some analysts before and after Donald Trump's upset victory suggested that most pollsters missed his hidden support among voters fearful of criticism who were unwilling to say where they stood."

End excerpt.

So, just as in 2016 the Democrats are crowing about how they intend to stick it to The Man, while Republicans, faced with such niceties as being called racist and maybe beaten up or having their car keyed, are keeping their voting preferences on the QT.

The current poll (as of Monday) shows a statistical dead-heat.

From this report:

"The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds that 46% would choose the Republican candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty-five percent (45%) would vote for the Democrat. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

A week ago, Democrats held a 47% to 44% lead. Since Rasmussen Reports began the weekly surveying in early May, Democrats have led every week but one until early last month. Following the controversy surrounding the Senate confirmation of U.S. Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanuagh, the Generic Congressional Ballot was tied for two weeks, but then Democrats moved back ahead.

The GOP now has a small lead among voters not affiliated with either major party. But significantly, 20% of these voters remain undecided or prefer someone other than the Republican or Democratic candidates. "

End excerpt.

Early voting has been heavily Reopublican, which suggests the real enthusiasm is on the right side. This at a time when the economy is roaring, and wages are up, unemployment is down, and the market is up. It seems strange to think that the public will vote against the Republicans at a time like this.

This is going to be a barn-burner.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 12:15 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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