July 03, 2020

Arguing with idiots Global Warming Addition Yet Again

Timothy Birdnow

I'm forced into arguing with Gangreenous idiots again. I stated on a Facebook post:

So, I suppose we now have proof that sea level rise has accellerated? We've now found the hot spot in the tropical troposphere? We've founb the "missing heat" hiding in the deep oceans? Oh wait...

Dan Bailey smirks:

Yes, yes and yes.

And yes, I can cite the research.

If you promise to actually read it, I'll cite it.

Oh, wait...

I reply:

Sorry Dan Bailey but Skeptical Science and Mad Magazine don't qualify...

Kray Van Kirk argues:

Timothy Birdnow I've never seen a single peer-reviewed, published scientific paper written by someone named Skeptical Science.

Nerem, R.S., Beckley, B.D., Fasulla, J.T., Hamlington, B.D., Masters, D., and G.T. Mitchum. 2018. Climate-change-

driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115 (9)

Dangendorf, S, Hay, C., Calafat, F.M., Marcos, M., Piecuch, C.G., Berk, K., and J. Jensen. 2019. Persistent acceleration in global sea-level rise sicne the 1960s. Nature Climate Change, (9) 705-710

Zanna, L., Khatiwala, S., Gergory, J.M., Ison, J., and P. Heimbach, 2019. Global reconstruction of historical ocean heat storage and transport. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115 (4)


Dan Bailey says:

"proof that sea level rise has accellerated?"

Currently, global sea levels are rising 3.3 mm/year, with an acceleration observed in recent years due to accelerating land-based ice sheet mass losses.

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017GL073308
https://meetings.aviso.altimetry.fr/fileadmin/user_upload/tx_ausyclsseminar/files/Poster_OSTST17_GMSL_Drift_TOPEX-A.pdf
https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3325
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10712-015-9332-4
https://www.pnas.org/content/115/9/2022
https://www.earth-syst-sci-data-discuss.net/essd-2018-53/
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0273117718305799
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2017GL076129

#StrikeOne
Edited · 1 · Like · React · More · Yesterday at 4:37 PM
Dan Bailey
"We've now found the hot spot in the tropical troposphere?"

This just in:

Tropospheric Hotspot found:

Sherwood and Nishant 2015 - Atmospheric changes through 2012 as shown by iteratively homogenized radiosonde temperature and wind data

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054007

#StrikeTwo

"We've founb the "missing heat" hiding in the deep oceans?"

It never was missing.

From Cheng et al 2020:

"The world’s oceans (especially the upper 2000 m) in 2019 were the warmest in recorded human history.

Specifically, the ocean heat anomaly (0−2000 m) in 2019 was 228 Zetta Joules (ZJ, 1 ZJ=1021 Joules) above the 1981−2010 average and 25 ZJ above 2018.

The past five years are the top five warmest years in the ocean historically with modern instruments, and the past ten years are also the top ten years on record. The same ranking also applies to NOAA/NCEI data (Table 1).

[Comparing 1955-1986 to 1987-2019] the more recent warming was ~450% that of the earlier warming (9.4 ± 0.2 ZJ yr−1, equal to 0.58 W m−2 averaged over the Earth’s surface), reflecting a major increase in the rate of global climate change.

The new results indicate a total full-depth ocean warming of 370 ± 81 ZJ (equal to a net heating of 0.38 ± 0.08 W m−2 over the global surface) from 1960 to 2019, with contributions of 41.0%, 21.5%, 28.6% and 8.9% from the 0–300-m, 300–700-m, 700–2000-m, and below-2000-m layers, respectively. The uncertainty in the OHC record has been greatly reduced in recent decades through improvements in the ocean observation system. Furthermore, the penetration of heat into the deep oceans is evident, primarily through the Atlantic Ocean and Southern Ocean.

It is well-establishe
d that the Southern Ocean has taken up most of the global warming heat since 1970: multiple observations show that the ocean south of 30°S at 0–2000 m was responsible for 35%–43% of the increase in global OHC within 1970–2017. Also, this is associated with a net northward heat transport by the oceans across the equator. Such meridional oceanic heat transport has influenced recent marine heatwaves in the Tasman Sea, which imparts a profound influence on marine fisheries and ecosystems. Interestingly, many of the major marine heatwave events in recent years have been located near the strong ocean heating regions, such as the Mediterranean Sea, North Pacific (nicknamed "The Blob”), equatorial central Pacific, Tasman Sea, and North Atlantic (> 40°N). Marine heatwaves and other stresses caused by ocean environmental changes clearly pose high risks to biodiversity and fisheries, and cause economic losses.

The ocean heating is irrefutable, and a key measure of the Earth’s energy imbalance: the excess GHGs in the air trap more heat inside the climate system and drives global warming. More than 90% of the heat accumulates in the ocean because of its large heat capacity, and the remaining heating manifests as atmospheric warming, a drying and warming landmass, and melting of land and sea ice. There are no reasonable alternatives aside from anthropogenic emissions of heat-trapping gases.

Increased ocean temperatures lead to rising sea levels (thermal expansion of the ocean and added mass from melting land ice). According to the altimetry satellite record, the past 10 years are also the highest in global mean sea level since 1900.

It is important to note that ocean warming will continue even if the global mean surface air temperature can be stabilized at or below 2°C in the 21st century, due to the long-term commitment of ocean changes driven by GHGs. Here, the term "commitment” means that the ocean (and some other components in the Earth system, such as the large ice sheets) are slow to respond and equilibrate, and will continue to change even after radiative forcing stabilizes.

However, the rates and magnitudes of ocean warming and the associated risks will be smaller with lower GHG emissions. Hence, the rate of increase can be reduced by appropriate human actions that lead to rapid reductions in GHG emissions, thereby reducing the risks to humans and other life on Earth."

Cheng et al 2020 - Record-Setting Ocean Warmth Continued in 2019

https:// link.springer.co m/article/ 10.1007/ s00376-020-9283- 7

Other resources:

https:// www.climate.gov/ news-features/ understanding-cl imate/ climate-change-o cean-heat-conte nt
https:// www.carbonbrief. org/ state-of-the-cli mate-new-record -ocean-heat-con tent-and-growin g-a-el-nino
http:// www.realclimate. org/index.php/ archives/2018/ 11/ the-long-story-o f-constraining- ocean-heat-cont ent/
http:// www.realclimate. org/index.php/ archives/2019/ 01/ new-ocean-heat-c ontent-historie s/
https:// advances.science mag.org/ content/3/3/ e1601545
https:// science.sciencem ag.org/content/ 363/6423/128
https:// www.frontiersin. org/articles/ 10.3389/ fmars.2019.00432 /full

#StrikeThreeYouA reOUT!


(-drops mic, saunters out-) My response:

Dan Bailey, Sherwood and Nashant are wrong.

Roy Spencer at UAH points out that the models are off by a factor of five on tropospheric warming. http://www.drroyspencer.com/2015/05/new-satellite-upper-troposphere-product-still-no-tropical-hotspot/

So, despite years of good radiosonde (balloon) data these guys suddenly found it hiding there all along! It only took messaging and manipulating the data. Here is a critique of the sneaky way they went about it. http://joannenova.com.au/2015/05/desperation-who-needs-thermometers-sherwood-finds-missing-hot-spot-with-homogenized-wind-data/

Looks like it wasn't a strike after all.



Kray Van Kirk, you mention the Dangendorf et al paper which clearly states:

Persistent acceleration in global sea-level rise sicne the 1960s. Nature Climate Change, (9) 705-710. I suppose the irony of that is lost on you as you fail to see the word PERSISTANT. And you don't notice 1960, prior to the big uptswing in CO2 emissions.

BTW this research https://www.carbonbrief.org/global-sea-level-rise-began-accelerating-30-years-earlier-than-previously-thought argues that sea level rise increased in the '60's - before the big rise in atmospheric CO2 - and that it was mostly caused by thermal expansion and NOT ice melt. And this primarily in the Southern Hemisphere.

Again, this was before the big increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide so it clearly cannot be attributed to that.

BTW sea level rise peaked in 1950 at 3.86 mm/y, over the current rate of 3.38mm/y, something excluded by most of these researchers who usually start later. In other words, they cherry picked their data in most of these studies. In other words, we are merely at a level earlier than the slowdown mid-century.

8638610_50yr

8720030_50yr

8771450_50yr

9410170_50yr

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_us.html

These trends are obvious if one looks at data from earlier than 1950.

Dan Bailey re:Zama et. al. apparently you don't understand that they have no data sets to work on. In other words, they are just assuming past ocean temperatures. All we had was tidal pool data and a few fishing boat temperature checks prior to 1979 when satellite data became available. That's how the entire AGW alarmist argument works; make stuff up and say it is true. That's precisely what they did there; redefine the data so as to assume a colder ocean in the past. Cute trick.

Despite claims to the contrary, we have not seen islands disappear or even beach front (except due to erosion). People are still buying beachfront property.

As for Cheng, Turnbreth et. al. you cite, they are attempting to reconstruct historical ocean temperature data without any way of actually doing so. We had no good way of measuring deep ocean temperatures until we started sending down Argo probles in the early 2000 decade. I would also point out Turnbreth was one of the Climategate guys who was plotting with Mann and Jones and the others to subvert peer review, bully journal editors, and generally manipulate science, so i find it has little credibility.


Oh, BTW, I notice you ignored the tropical trophosphere. Well, this graph from NOAA shows no warming there - despite that being a key compoentnt of the climate change models. http://icecap.us/images/uploads/strat-trop.png



As for ocean warming; it takes about a thousand years for the oceans to churn, and the idea that argo probes wouldn't find the increasing heat (coming as it is supposedly from warmer air) is idiotic on the face of it. And once again we see you alarmists using messaged data.

See refutations of Cheng et. al here https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/01/18/new-80-year-deep-ocean-temperature-dataset-compared-to-a-1d-climate-model/ and Judith Curry tears Cheng a new one. https://judithcurry.com/2019/01/21/is-ocean-warming-accelerating-faster-than-thought/

Another ball is called.

If this were such a slam-dunk then why haven't you people been able to prove your case yet? You've had forty years now. The models did not predict a "pause" in warming. They predicted a whole host of things that have failed to materialize. In the end what is happening on the ground is more important than what models say.. You guys massage the data to fit the models, which is Cargo Cult science. It's a touching faith, but you really ought to find something more substantial to believe in.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 11:56 AM | Comments (1) | Add Comment
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